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Phillies vs Braves Odds and Betting Lines (Sep. 29)

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 29, 2021 · 12:06 AM PDT

Bryce Harper at the plate
Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper (3) bats against the Atlanta Braves during a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • NL East-leader Atlanta comes into Wednesday with a 3.5-game cushion over Philadelphia
  • With St. Louis clinching the second Wild Card on Tuesday, the Phillies now need to win the NL East to make playoffs
  • Read on for a preview, full odds, and a best bet for this crucial Wednesday evening contest

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-76, 34-42 away) visit the Atlanta Braves (84-72, 38-37 home) on Wednesday, September 28th, for the second in a three-game series that can make or break their season. Currently second in the NL East, 3.5 games back of Atlanta, the Phillies will be officially eliminated from postseason contention if they get swept.

The Braves come into this game on a roll, having now won four straight following Tuesday’s 2-1 victory over Philadelphia, which has now lost two in a row.

Phillies vs Braves Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +120 +1.5 (-170) Over 8 (-115)
Atlanta Braves -140 -1.5 (+150) Under 8 (-105)

Odds as of September 28th at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

With Philadelphia essentially facing must-win games down the stretch this week, Aaron Nola and his 9-8 record will be first to go under the microscope on Wednesday.

While his 4.64 ERA is nothing to hang your hat on, he does have the luxury of going 1-1 against the Braves this year. Better still, the right-hander has gone 12-7 with a 3.28 ERA against them over his  career, so Philly fans will be hoping the 28-year-old can recapture some of that former glory.

Nola vs Fried Stats

Aaron Nola
Max Fried
9-8 Record 13-7
4.64 ERA 3.12
174.2 Innings Pitched 158.2
219 SO 152
37 BB 41

However, they will likely be mindful that most of his success against the Braves has come at home. At Truist Park, Nola is just 2-5 with a 4.56 ERA and hasn’t won there since the 2019 season. His last two starts there, in particular, are the stuff of pitching nightmares, with Nola giving up nine earned runs in a combined 6.2 innings.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Braves Batters Batting Average vs Aaron Nola
Ozzie Albies .238
Orlando Arcia .000
William Contreras .250
Adam Duvall .310
Freddie Freeman .220
Guillermo Heredia .000
Joc Pederson .267
Austin Riley .375
Dansby Swanson .171
Travis d’Arnaud .182
Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Max Fried
Alec Bohm .167
Freddy Galvis .000
Didi Gregorius .000
Bryce Harper .412
Odubel Herrera .750
Andrew McCutchen .167
J.T. Realmuto .435
Jean Segura .278
Ronald Torreyes .000

Braves fans will have few such worries around their starter, Max Fried. The left-hander is enjoying another standout season, having gone 13-7 with a 3.12 ERA so far. He comes into this game having pitched a complete-game 4-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres in his last start.

While he has had mixed success against the Phillies in his career, going 3-3 with a 4.43 ERA, he has been largely dominant at Truist Park, no matter the opposition. Fried has a career mark of 19-7 at the ballpark, with an ERA of 3.10.

And the results against them have been anything but great this year, with Fried having an 0-1 record in two starts giving up six earned runs across 10 innings.

Phillies On An NL East Roll

When it comes to playing teams within their own division, the Phillies have been laughing of late, winning 14 of their previous 18 games against teams in the NL East. That run has the team at 40-31 against its division rivals this season.

YouTube video

Within that record, Philadelphia has gone 8-9 against the Braves so far, with two more games still to play in 2021.

The two teams have been extremely closely matched in recent years, with the teams going 5-5 last year and 10-9 in Atlanta’s favour in 2019. You have to go back to 2018 to see one team really take control, as the Braves did that year with a 12-7 mark.

Phillies vs Braves Prediction

While the postseason still looks like an extremely long shot for the Phillies, for them to have really any shot at all, they basically have to win here. So Atlanta had best be ready for an extremely desperate ball club.

Pick: Phillies (+120)

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