Pirates vs Blue Jays Predictions & Props to Bet on May 23

• Pittsburgh is a -154 moneyline favorite over Toronto this afternoon
• Pirates starter Paul Skenes boasts a 2.62 ERA and 0.71 WHIP
• See the best Pirates vs Blue Jays predictions and props to bet on May 23, below

The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-24) continue their three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (23-27) this afternoon, with first pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre. Toronto took the previous contest 6-2, but online sportsbooks are siding with Pittsburgh today in the MLB odds.

Today’s matchup offers a distinct betting angle as flamethrower Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates. He brings his elite strikeout stuff to face a Blue Jays lineup anchored by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto will counter with journeyman Patrick Corbin, giving Pittsburgh a big advantage on the mound.

Keep reading for the best Pirates vs Blue Jays predictions and props to bet on May 23, below.

Pirates vs Blue Jays Predictions

• Pirates Moneyline (-154 at Bet365)
• Under 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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I am taking the Pirates Moneyline as my primary bet today. Pittsburgh is handing the ball to Skenes, who boasts a 2.62 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. Meanwhile, Toronto is relying on Corbin, who carries a 4.23 ERA and allows opponents to bat .301.

I am also backing Under 7.5 runs. Skenes has proven highly effective at generating whiffs, neutralizing a Toronto lineup batting just .241 on the year. While Pittsburgh’s lineup is capable of scoring against Corbin, Skenes’ ability to post zeros limits the overall scoring ceiling of this game.

Paul Skenes vs Patrick Corbin Stats

Skenes offers a significant edge in run prevention. Over his last 10 starts, he pairs strong command (1.31 BB/9) with high strikeout upside. His 2.65 FIP aligns perfectly with his ERA, proving his success is backed by strong underlying metrics.

Conversely, Corbin struggles to miss bats, generating just 5.87 strikeouts per nine innings. His 1.49 WHIP stems from the sheer volume of contact allowed. Corbin also averages under five innings per start, which could expose a taxed Toronto bullpen early in the contest.

Pirates vs Blue Jays Stats

Digging into the MLB starting lineups, the data reveals Pittsburgh hits the ball harder on the road, logging an average exit velocity of 88.5 mph against Toronto’s 87.5 mph mark at home. This translates directly to over-the-fence production, with the road team averaging 1.04 home runs per game compared to 0.96 for the hosts.

Pirates vs Blue Jays Props to Bet

• Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105 on DraftKings)

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For player props, my top target is Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts. Skenes averages 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season. Given his overpowering arsenal and a reasonable line sitting right at his median production, this is a highly logical angle against a contact-reliant Toronto roster. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, the Toronto bats whiffed 11 times last night versus Pirates starter Bubba Chandler over just 5 innings.

Pirates vs Blue Jays Odds & Betting Splits

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Looking at the MLB public betting splits, 59.6% of the moneyline tickets back Pittsburgh, but 69.8% of the money falls on Toronto. While falling just short of a textbook sharp-versus-public threshold, the larger wagers are aggressively backing the home underdog. I am comfortable fading that financial leverage based on the underlying pitching metrics that heavily favor Skenes.

The total market shows absolute consensus, with 79.9% of tickets and 84.2% of the money backing the Over. My prediction of the Under actively fades both the heavy ticket volume and financial backing. Oddsmakers have refused to adjust the line despite lopsided action, suggesting confidence in a low scoring game today.