- The Atlanta Braves are -135 home favorites over the San Diego Padres in an MLB game slated for Saturday, May 14
- Entering play Friday San Diego was 4-2 straight up in the club’s last six games at Atlanta
- See the Braves vs Padres odds, picks, predictions and best bets below
Both the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres are highly touted in the World Series odds. But while the Padres are living up to expectations, it’s the defending World Series champion Braves who find themselves scuffling.
Playing host to the Padres in the second of a three-game weekend series, the Braves took the diamond on Friday second in the NL East but two games below .500 with a 15-17 record. Meanwhile, the Padres were in the thick of the NL West race at 20-12, one game behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
Still, it’s the defending champs who are getting the love from the oddsmakers. The Braves are set as -135 favorites in this game. Atlanta is 17-13-2 on the total this season. At 56.7%, the Braves are the third-best over play in all of MLB.
Padres vs Braves Odds
|San Diego Padres||+110||+1.5 (-200)||Over 8 (+100)|
|Atlanta Braves||-230||-1.5 (+170)||Under 8 (-120)|
Odds as of May 13th at Caesars Sportsbook
The first pitch at Truist Park is due to be thrown at 4:05 pm ET on Saturday, May 14. Cloudy skies, 6 mph wind and a temperature of 78 degrees is in the forecast.
With a favorite’s moneyline of -135, the Braves are being given an implied probability of victory of 57.45%.
As far as public betting trends, 52% of the bets placed against the spread are on the Padres at +1.5. Meanwhile, the moneyline splits show 71% of the bets are on the Braves at -13 odds, The total shows 52% of the public bets are on the Under (8).
Atlanta is +1200 to win the World Series, while San Diego is +1700. In terms of the NL pennant odds, the Braves are the third betting choice (+625) and the Padres are fifth (+850).
Charlie Morton Finding His Mojo?
It’s been a season of struggle thus far for Braves veteran right-hander Charlie Morton.
However, a glimmer of hope emerged from his most recent start. Morton worked five scoreless innings on May 8 against the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed just two hits and got the verdict in a 9-2 Atlanta victory. It was his first win in exactly a month.
Charlie Morton, Disgusting 3,249 RPM Curveball. 😲 pic.twitter.com/KkMYJsaXwk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2022
His previous four starts saw Morton post a 7.85 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in 18.1 innings of work. He was 0-3 over that span. The Padres belted Morton for nine hits and five earned runs in five innings of a 12-1 Braves loss on April 14.
In 10 career starts against San Diego, Morton is 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s checked Padres hitters on a .196 batting average.
Manaea vs Morton
After six seasons with the Oakland A’s, lefty Manaea joined the Padres for the 2022 campaign. He hasn’t endured a losing campaign since his 2016 rookie season in Oakland (7-9).
1-2-3 first inning for Sean Manaea pic.twitter.com/GMOzhiiokm
— Talking Friars (@talkingfriars) May 8, 2022
Through his first three starts for San Diego, Manaea was 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA. In three starts since, he’s 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA. The Padres are 0-3 in those games.
Manaea shows one career start against the Braves. He didn’t get the decision, working 7.1 innings and posting a 2.45 ERA. This will be his first career start at Truist Park.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Braves Batters||Batting Average vs Manaea||Padres Batters||Batting Average vs Morton|
|Ronald Acuna Jr||.000||Sergio Alcantara||.000|
|Ozzie Albies||.000||Jorge Alfaro||.077|
|Orlando Arcia||.000||Jose Azocar||.000|
|William Contreras||.000||Robinson Cano||.313|
|Travis Demeritte||.000||Jake Cronenworth||1.000|
|Adam Duvall||.500||Trent Grisham||.000|
|Guillermo Heredia||.250||Eric Hosmer||.500|
|Matt Olson||.000||Ha-Seong Kim||.000|
|Marcell Ozuna||.000||Manny Machado||.500|
|Austin Riley||.000||Wil Myers||.333|
|Dansby Swanson||.000||Austin Nola||.286|
|Travis d’Arnaud||1.000||Jurickson Profar||.333|
The Padres have enjoyed some success at the dish when facing Morton. Eric Hosmer is 4-for-8 (.500) with a homer and 3 RBI. Hosmer also has driven in 18 runs in the past 16 games. Manny Machado is 3-for-6 (.500).
Braves intentionally walked Manny Machado to get to Eric Hosmer, who singles in two runs. 3-1 Padres! pic.twitter.com/ZY8yCLq227
— Talking Friars (@talkingfriars) May 14, 2022
Jake Cronenworth is batting 1.000, albeit it’s 1-for-1. Jurickson Profar is 4-for-12 (.333) with a solo homer. Wil Myers (1-for-3) is also batting .333, while Robinson Cano is 5-for-16 (.313) with 2 RBI.
The Braves show limited at-bats against Manaea. Travis d’Arnaud is 2-for-2 (1.000) with an RBI.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
There’s not much to choose between the two teams in this matchup. In cases like this, it’s always best to take into account the known knowns.
Ozzie Albies scores on a drop by Wil Myers to bring the Braves within one of the Padres. pic.twitter.com/2MslIfrhr4
— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) May 14, 2022
Morton’s stellar last outing and solid career slate against San Diego suggests going with Atlanta in the Padres vs Braves odds.
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML (-135)