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Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Picks, Predictions & Odds (May 23)

Adam Spencer

by Adam Spencer in MLB Baseball

Updated May 23, 2024 · 6:12 AM PDT

May 18, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil (81) reacts after the final out in the top of the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Yankees (34-17) host the Seattle Mariners (27-23) in the final game of a four-game set on Thursday afternoon in the Bronx, looking to salvage a series split
  • It’s a battle of the Luises, as Luis Gil (5-1, 2.39 ERA) of the Yankees faces Seattle ace Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.28 ERA)
  • Check out the best predictions and picks from this American League showdown below

The Seattle Mariners conclude their visit to Yankee Stadium on Thursday afternoon, putting their ace, Luis Castillo, on the mound. The Yankees will counter with Luis Gil, who has been sharp to start the 2024 season.

The Mariners won the first two games of this series, but the Yankees bounced back on Wednesday night with a 7-3 victory. Who will win this battle of talented American League squads? Tune in to the MLB Network at 12:35 pm ET on Thursday afternoon to find out.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Picks

  • Yankees ML
  • Luis Gil over 7.5 strikeouts

With Gerrit Cole out following surgery, many expected the Yankees’ rotation to be a weak spot. Thanks to the performance of Luis Gil, that hasn’t been the case. He has the lowest ERA of all Yankee starters and the highest K/9 rate (11.4). Going against the Mariners, who strike out at the highest rate in baseball, he should have a field day.

I expect him to reach his over in five or fewer innings. If he continues his streak of great performances this season, the Yankees should also be able to salvage the series split. Castillo has been good this year, but he hasn’t been his usual elite self.

Give me the Yankees on the moneyline and Luis Gil to have 8 or more strikeouts in today’s game.

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Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-165) +125 O 8.0 (+100)
New York Yankees -1.5 (+135) -150 U 8.0 (-120)

Odds via BetMGM as of May 23. Use BetMGM promo code DIME1500 to score a first-bet bonus of up to $1,500.

The Yankees are favored in this game, holding a -150 moneyline edge. The Mariners are +125 on the moneyline. If you think the Yankees can win by 2+ runs, that holds +135 odds. The run total over/under is set at an even 8. The over is +100 and the under is -120.

There’s plenty of value to be had in the above odds, especially if you back the Yankees. They should be starting all their usual players, looking to avoid losing 3 of 4 games to Seattle.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Starters

Luis Castillo VS Luis Gil
4-5 Record 5-1
3.28 ERA 2.39
26.8% SO% 31.2%

As you can see, these 2 pitchers are among some of the top strikeout artists in baseball today. Gil’s 31.2% strikeout rate is especially eye-popping. That should come into play early and often on Thursday afternoon, as the Mariners have the highest team strikeout rate in baseball.

The entire Yankees rotation, featuring Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodon and Gil, has been one of the best in baseball this year. Pair that with the Mariners’ knack for swinging and missing and you have a recipe for a long afternoon for Seattle fans. Or, technically, a long morning for Seattle fans, as first pitch is scheduled for 9:35 a.m. on the west coast.

Castillo’s numbers might not look great, but he’s having a solid season, too, by all metrics. He’s just had some unfortunate luck on balls in play, allowing batters to reach base at a .297 clip. The Mariners also aren’t scoring a ton when Castillo is on the hill, giving him just 3.97 runs per start of support on average.

Considering Gil’s ERA is below 2.50, it’s unlikely that Seattle will be able to improve that number much on Thursday afternoon. Look for this to be a low-scoring pitcher’s duel with plenty of batters swinging and coming up empty.

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