Yankees vs Mets Predictions & Props to Bet on May 16

• The Subway Series continues as the New York Mets host the New York Yankees in Game 2.
• The value pick could be taking Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
• Keep scrolling to see the best bets, latest odds, and injury reports

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The New York Yankees (28-17) cross town to face the New York Mets (18-26) at Citi Field on May 16, 2026, at 7:15 PM ET. The regional broadcast networks will carry the matchup as the rivals continue their series. In their last meeting, the Yankees secured a 5-2 victory behind a 10-hit offensive surge and a home run from Ben Rice.

Despite the loss, the home underdog Mets saw a bright spot with a home run from superstar Juan Soto. With the road favorites rolling and the home squad desperate to improve their standing, I have plenty to consider. I am breaking down the pitching advantages, run-scoring trends, and the best angles to bet this matchup.

Yankees vs Mets Predictions & Best Bets

I am looking directly at the player prop markets for my strongest angles tonight. Strictly from a handicapping perspective, the Yankees hold a massive statistical advantage over the Mets. The disparity at the plate is impossible to ignore, which makes the road favorites the clear side to back on the moneyline.

Pick 1: Carlos Rodon Under 16.5 Outs (-122 at Caesars Sportsbook)

My first official play is a fade on the Yankees’ probable pitcher, Carlos Rodon. He carries an inflated 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over his recent starts. More importantly, he averages just 4.33 innings per appearance. To clear 16.5 outs, Rodon would need to pitch into the sixth inning.

His underlying metrics suggest pitching deep into the game is highly unlikely. At -122 odds via Caesars, the Under 16.5 outs is an exceptional value.

Pick 2: Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (-105 at DraftKings)

On the offensive side, my top player prop is Aaron Judge to record 2+ total bases at -105 odds on DraftKings. Judge has amassed 16 home runs and a 1.010 OPS this season.

Odds as of May 16, 2026, at 12:04 PM ET from Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

Carlos Rodon vs Huascar Brazoban

Rodon enters this contest trying to find his footing after a turbulent stretch. He is yielding a disastrous 10.38 walks per nine innings, constantly putting himself in high-stress situations. These free passes heavily tax his bullpen when he takes the mound. Our MLB probable pitchers page will show who is getting the start in any MLB matchup.

Huascar Brazoban takes the hill for the Mets, serving in an opener capacity. He averages just 1.00 innings per appearance over his last 10 outings. While he limits base hits well, he also struggles with command, walking 6.00 batters per nine innings.

Team Stats Comparison

To get a clear picture of how these rivals stack up, I analyzed their statistical profiles. The table below highlights key metrics. Offensive statistics represent road numbers for the visitors and home numbers for the hosts.

The glaring mismatch in this showdown is found in the power department. The Bronx Bombers rank 5th in road home runs per game (1.20) and 2nd in average exit velocity (89.7 mph). This hard-hit rate validates my appeal for backing Judge. His ability to drive the ball aligns seamlessly with a lineup designed to do damage. It’s very important to see MLB batter vs pitcher stats before you lock in any bets.

The Mets severely lack offensive firepower at Citi Field. They sit 26th in home OPS (.647) and 22nd in home runs per game (0.95). While Soto remains a dangerous threat, the rest of the lineup has failed to consistently support him. Their pitching staff also allows noticeably more traffic, ranking 15th with a 1.27 WHIP.

Yankees vs Mets Odds & Betting Trends

Odds as of May 16, 2026, at 12:09 PM ET from BetMGM, Bet365, and DraftKings

MLB odds have the Yankees as road favorites on the moneyline, priced at -130 to secure the victory. On the runline, backing them to win by multiple runs pays +135. The game total market leans slightly toward a lower-scoring affair, with the Under 8.5 carrying a -114 price tag.

The opening spread and total have remained stagnant since the lines were first released. However, the moneyline has experienced notable movement. The road favorites originally opened at -130.

Here are the key betting trends I am monitoring for this matchup:

• The Yankees cash tickets at a 66.7% rate (2-1) when listed as underdogs.
• Backing the Mets as underdogs has been unprofitable; they win just 27.3% of games (3-8) at catching-plus odds.
• Recent Yankees matchups heavily favor lower-scoring outcomes, with the Under cashing in 70.0% of their last 10 games.
• The Mets’ matchups hit the Over just 34.1% of the time this season.

Subway Series Public Betting Splits

Analyzing MLB public betting percentages provides crucial context to this contest. I lean on the money percentages as the more valuable metric because they often highlight where the larger, respected wagers land.

In the moneyline market, 83% of tickets and a staggering 79% of the total handle back the Yankees. The big money is completely aligned with the public. This heavily favors my earlier handicapping angle, identifying the visitors as the clear side to back given their massive statistical advantages.

In the game total market, bettors are slightly more divided. The Over draws 72% of tickets, but the handle is nearly split. The Over commands 69% of the stake, while the Under pulls 31%. The Under pulling in nearly half the money despite accounting for just 28% of tickets indicates larger wagers are backing a lower-scoring game.

Injury Report Updates

Evaluating the injury report is critical when handicapping a matchup with two heavily bet teams. Both squads are battling severe injury bugs, missing key foundational pieces to their respective lineups and starting rotations.

The injury landscape dictates a clear narrative: the Mets are fielding a severely compromised daily lineup. Missing their superstar shortstop, primary centerfielder, and starting catcher hollows out the core of their order. This lack of firepower severely hampers their ability to string together rallies.

The Yankees are also dealing with significant blows. Losing Giancarlo Stanton removes a terrifying presence from the middle of the lineup. With Gerrit Cole and Max Fried sidelined, they are forced to deploy Rodon in high-leverage spots. Ultimately, the healthy sluggers in the visitors’ dugout are far better equipped to feast on a depleted pitching staff.