Early UFC 317 Predictions & Odds: Topuria vs Oliveira Main Card Picks

• UFC 317 brings International Fight Week to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 28th

• Ilia Topuria moves up to lightweight to challenge Charles Oliveira for the vacant title in the main event

• Check out the UFC 317 early predictions and odds below

International Fight Week kicks off with a bang as undefeated featherweight champion Ilia Topuria moves up to lightweight to face former champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant 155-pound title at UFC 317. The stacked card also features flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defending against Kai Kara-France in the co-main event at the T-Mobile Arena this Saturday, June 28th.

Lock in your picks and catch the action on ESPN+ PPV with prelims starting at 6:30 pm ET. Here are the UFC 317 early odds and my predictions for the biggest fights.

UFC 317 Odds

The early UFC 317 odds have Ilia Topuria as a massive -455 favorite to capture the vacant lightweight title over Charles Oliveira, who comes back at +350.

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja is -250 to defend his flyweight crown against Kai Kara-France at +205.

Odds as of June 23rd, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 317 on Saturday.

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Early Topuria vs Oliveira Prediction

Ilia Topuria is chasing history. Fresh off back-to-back knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, two featherweight legends, “El Matador” moves up to lightweight looking to become a two-division champion at just 28 years old.

Charles Oliveira welcomes him to 155 pounds, but this feels like the wrong matchup at the wrong time for “Do Bronx.” At 35, Oliveira is 2-2 in his last four, with losses to Islam Makhachev and a controversial split decision to Arman Tsarukyan. Those are elite wrestlers, which Topuria isn’t, but the Georgian-Spaniard brings something even more dangerous: elite boxing.

Here’s the problem for Oliveira: his chin. He’s been dropped in four of his last six fights, and Topuria hits harder than anyone he’s faced recently. The power that slept Volkanovski and Holloway translates up in weight, and Oliveira’s aggressive style plays right into Topuria’s counter-punching.

Oliveira’s path to victory requires a kick-heavy, distance-first gameplan – think Ryan Hall levels of evasiveness. But that’s not who he is. The Brazilian loves to trade in the pocket, and against Topuria’s hand speed and power, that’s a death sentence.

The five-inch reach advantage for Oliveira looks nice on paper, but Topuria has proven he can close distance and land clean. His defensive grappling is underrated too, as he’s a solid BJJ black belt who won’t panic if the fight hits the mat.

I’m expecting Topuria to stuff early takedown attempts, keep the fight standing, and eventually find Oliveira’s chin. First-round TKO for the new lightweight champion.

• Topuria vs Oliveira Early Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO -110

Early Pantoja vs Kara-France Prediction

Alexandre Pantoja might be the most underrated champion in the UFC. The 35-year-old Brazilian has cleaned out the flyweight division, holding five combined wins over top contenders Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. Now he faces a familiar foe in Kai Kara-France.

These two met back on The Ultimate Fighter 24, where Pantoja submitted Kara-France in the second round. Since then, Pantoja has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist while Kara-France remains largely the same fighter: a dangerous striker with solid takedown defense but clear weaknesses against elite grapplers.

Kara-France enters on just a one-fight win streak, and frankly, he’s getting this title shot because Pantoja has beaten everyone else. The Kiwi striker can stuff some takedowns early, but Pantoja’s relentless pressure, body kicks, and chain wrestling will eventually break him down.

I see this playing out like Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov. When you’re worried solely about defending takedowns, your offense disappears. Pantoja will drag this into deep waters and either submit Kara-France late or cruise to a clear decision.

• Pantoja vs Kara-France Early Pick: Alexandre Pantoja -265

Other UFC 317 Early Predictions

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano:

This is a buy-low spot on Dariush. Yes, he’s been knocked out twice recently, but Moicano isn’t Charles Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush’s elite scrambling and underrated power give him clear paths to victory. The line opened at +118 on some books, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he closes as the favorite.

• Early Pick: Beneil Dariush +102

Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van:

Van is injecting fresh blood into the flyweight division at just 23 years old. He’s 7-1 in the UFC and taking this fight on three weeks’ notice after knocking out Bruno Silva. In a three-rounder, Van’s boxing and pressure should be enough to edge Royval, whose chin remains a concern after recent wars.

• Early Pick: Joshua Van -120

Felipe Lima vs Payton Talbott:

Both are blue-chip prospects, but I like Lima’s urgency and wrestling. Talbott has elite striking but his takedown defense is still developing. In the standard-sized octagon, Lima’s movement and quick entries to grappling exchanges should help him grind out a decision. This fight deserves better than an early prelim slot.

• Early Pick: Felipe Lima -205

Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price:

This shouldn’t be sanctioned. Price is completely shot and a human punching bag at this point. Smith is a powerful wrestler with heavy hands who should get this done in under a minute. If he doesn’t finish early, something’s seriously wrong. Skip the -2100 moneyline and look at Round 1 props.

• Early Pick: Jacobe Smith wins in Round 1