- A stacked UFC 264 card goes down on Saturday, July 10th, 2021 in front of a full capacity crowd in Las Vegas
- Conor McGregor has promised a KO win, but will he deliver?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
The UFC is back in front of a full capacity crowd at the T-Mobile Arena, in Las Vegas, Nevada on July 10th, 2021 for arguably the biggest fight of the year. The card sees Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor settle their trilogy match in the main event as they are 1-1, with both men winning their fight by TKO. There are some props being offered for UFC 264 that hold great value through total rounds, goes the distance, and method of victory props.
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We’ve already broken down the full UFC 264 card and found some value on some fighters including an underdog. Let’s take a look at the props list below.
Total Rounds Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds at DraftKings||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Poirier vs McGregor||2.5||+112||-150|
|Burns vs Thompson||2.5||-159||+120|
|Tuivasa vs Hardy||1.5||-186||+137|
|Aldana vs Kunitskaya||2.5||-335||+225|
|O’Malley vs Moutinho||1.5||+140||-190|
All odds as of June 8
Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy Over 1.5 Total Rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy is a battle of lower-level heavyweights and one that I don’t think ends early as some suggest.
Hardy was known as a KO artist who only needs to land one punch, but as he has fought higher-level competition he has been getting dragged out in fights. Hardy has hit over 1.5 total rounds in four of his past five fights, and the one fight that didn’t was Maurice Greene, who is known to have a bad chin. Tuivasa, meanwhile, got first-round stoppages in his past two fights but that was against Harry Hunsucker, who took it on short notice and isn’t UFC caliber as well as Stefan Struve who’s known to be KO’d.
Ultimately, in the fight, I expect Hardy to try and go for the first-round KO and gas himself out like he usually does. After that, Tuivasa will be able to piece up Hardy and either get a third-round stoppage or a decision win.
Pick: Tuivasa-Hardy Over 1.5 rounds (-186)
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Poirier vs McGregor||+275||-400|
|Burns vs Thompson||-139||+105|
|Tuivasa vs Hardy||+150||-200|
|Aldana vs Kunitskaya||-265||+188|
|O’Malley vs Moutinho||+300||-455|
Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Goes The Distance
Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson is a really intriguing matchup, and given that I like Thompson to win, I expect the fight to go the distance.
If Burns wins, he likely does get the stoppage win over Thompson, who was knocked out by Anthony Pettis and has been dropped before. Burns is also a jiu-jitsu ace and could possibly submit him. However, for me, I expect Thompson to use his karate style to be able to keep the Brazilian at a distance and pick him apart.
Thompson, meanwhile, has gone the distance in seven of his last eight fights, and in his last four wins, he won by decision. Burns, meanwhile, has been durable in his career. He’s only been finished by Dan Hooker at lightweight where he was cutting too much weight and Kamaru Usman, who is finishing everyone as of late. Ultimately, Burns-Thompson to go the distance is a very solid bet in my opinion.
Pick: Burns-Thompson fight goes the distance (-139)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Poirier beats McGregor||+175||+650||+550|
|McGregor beats Poirier||+140||+2000||+700|
|Burns beats Thompson||+700||+500||+350|
|Thompson beats Burns||+275||+2200||+150|
|Tuivasa beats Hardy||+160||+1400||+350|
|Hardy beats Tuivasa||+250||+2000||+350|
|Aldana beats Kunitskaya||+400||+1400||+160|
|Kunitskaya beats Aldana||+800||+1100||+162|
|O’Malley beats Moutinho||-278||+1200||+400|
|Moutinho beats O’Malley||+900||+2500||+1200|
McGregor KO/TKO Method of Victory
Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 3 is a hard fight to call, but I like the Irishman to exact his revenge and score a KO/TKO method of victory win over Poirier.
Although McGregor suffered a TKO loss to Poirier in January, many have written him off in this fight, and rightfully so. However, it should be known that everything I’ve heard from McGregor’s teammates and coaches is that he was focused on a boxing match against Manny Pacquiao and overlooked Poirier. Now, that is no longer the case, and he has that swagger back with him that he had when he beat Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez.
Thank you Team! For all your dedicated work!
This Saturday we shine! pic.twitter.com/HPWrhjSfkV
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) July 7, 2021
Although Poirier is durable, he still does get hit, and I don’t think McGregor landed his best shots in January. I don’t think it will be a flush KO, but rather a build-up of punches that sends Poirier to the mat, and he finishes it off via TKO.
Pick: Conor McGregor by KO/TKO (+140)