UFC 331 Main Card Predictions, Picks & Lines – Van vs Pantoja 2

• Joshua Van defends the flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja in the UFC 331 main event at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
• Van is a -130 favorite at Bet365 with Pantoja sitting at +110
• See my expert UFC 331 main card predictions, picks and lines for Van vs Pantoja 2 below

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The Octagon returns to the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles for a stacked night of fights. The undisputed flyweight title is on the line in the massive main event between two bitter rivals.

Joshua Van looks to defend his belt against top contender Alexandre Pantoja. Read on for my favorite UFC 331 main card predictions, picks and lines, plus my best bets and long-shot plays, headlined by Van vs Pantoja 2.

UFC 331 Main Card Odds

Odds as of fight week at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 331 on Saturday.

Van vs Pantoja is by far the closest fight on the main card at -130 and +110, which is rare for a title fight and tells you how little separates these two on paper. Former Olympian Gable Steveson at -2000 is the heaviest favorite on the board by a wide margin, with the Under 1.5 in that fight priced at -500.

The middle of the card sits in a similar range, with Tsarukyan at -325, Choi at -270 and Baraniewski at -245. Both of those 2.5-round totals are pick ’em at -115 either way, so the value in those fights lives in the method markets rather than the moneylines.

These numbers move fast on fight day, so it pays to have more than one account open. A BetMGM promo code or a theScore Bet promo code gives you two more places to shop the best available price on each side.

UFC 331 Main Card Predictions

Van vs Pantoja 2 Prediction

• Van vs Pantoja 2 Pick: Joshua Van Moneyline (-130 at Bet365)

I get the case for prime Alexandre Pantoja, but I do not think this is that version anymore. Joshua Van is almost 12 years younger, and this matchup feels more about speed, first step and clean boxing than name value.

Pantoja still brings real grappling volume, with nine takedowns and 8:15 of control against Steve Erceg, then three takedowns and 7:20 of control in the Kai Kara-France submission. That is the danger, but Van’s 75% takedown defense and improved get-up game change the math for me. Pantoja is still clearly the better grappler, but Van continues to prove that he is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the sport.

The Taira fight is the key recent example. Taira went 8-for-21 on takedowns and had 10:38 of control, yet Van still landed 131 significant strikes, scored two knockdowns and finished him in Round 5. Even when Taira, one of the best control grapplers in the division, managed to secure dominant positions, Van’s composure allowed him to escape much quicker than expected.

Van’s striking pace is also a problem if Pantoja cannot hold him down. He landed 204 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Brandon Royval, good for 13.6 per minute, and I expect his speed and accuracy to show up again here. At 36, Pantoja’s days of winning back-and-forth wars might be over, especially against the fighter with the second-most significant strikes landed per minute in UFC history.

UFC 331 Best Bet: Tsarukyan vs Ruffy Prediction

• Tsarukyan vs Ruffy Pick: Arman Tsarukyan by Decision (+350 at Bet365)

I do not see Mauricio Ruffy as helpless on the mat just because Benoit Saint-Denis submitted him. Ruffy got dominated when he found himself on bottom but he made ‘BSD’ work for it, holding him to 3-for-10 on takedowns, and that matters against a fighter everyone expects to cruise with wrestling.

Once he is on the ground, Ruffy struggles to return to his feet, but he has been trickier to get down than some give him credit for.

Ruffy’s defensive signs have been better since that loss. Rafael Fiziev went 0-for-1 on takedowns, Michael Chandler went 0-for-3, and Ruffy finished both while landing 55 significant strikes on Fiziev and dropping Chandler twice. The Brazilian’s grappling has only improved in the last two years since joining forces with Alexander Volkanovski in Australia.

Arman Tsarukyan is still the more complete fighter. He had 8:41 of control against Charles Oliveira, 6:02 before submitting Dan Hooker, and seven takedowns over 15 minutes against Damir Ismagulov. His wrestling has likely only gotten better with frequent freestyle competition in the last year.

That pressure is why I still side with Arman, just not in a total wipeout. Ruffy’s movement and power should make the entries tougher, but Tsarukyan has more ways to bank minutes and win exchanges over a longer fight. This fight should be more competitive than the lines suggest.

Choi vs Freire Prediction

• Choi vs Freire Pick: Doo Ho Choi by Decision (+205 at Bet365)

I have always thought Doo Ho Choi is one of the more under-appreciated boxers in the UFC due to his tendency to brawl. Every Choi fight is a fan’s delight, but he does so with precision and technical striking more than just forcing an all-out battle of attrition. In this matchup, Choi is faster, cleaner and more comfortable throwing in combination than Patricio Freire at this stage of their careers.

Choi’s recent striking numbers back up the eye test. He landed 78 significant strikes at 67.2% against Nate Landwehr, then landed 72 more before stopping Daniel Santos in Round 2, a pace of at least 7.2 significant strikes per minute. Even at 35, ‘The Korean Superboy’ is still bringing a blistering pace with fight-ending power.

Pitbull has struggled to find that same striking rhythm in the UFC. He landed only 17 significant strikes at 34% against Yair Rodriguez, and Aaron Pico outlanded him 100 to 49 while adding six takedowns and 3:25 of control. He’s admitted he has had trouble letting himself loose, yet seemingly cannot do anything to change that.

I still do not expect Pitbull to go quietly. He has gone the distance in all three UFC fights, and his five takedowns with 2:44 of control against Dan Ige show the wrestling path he can use to stretch this out. Expect Pitbull to look to wrestle but largely succumbing to the speed and combinations from Choi.

UFC 331 Long Shot: Steveson vs Sharaf Prediction

• Steveson vs Sharaf Pick: Gable Steveson by Submission (+450 at Bet365)

Gable Steveson has been showing off the hands, but I think this is the spot where he leans into the wrestling. Sean Sharaf is dangerous enough on the feet that giving him a clean kickboxing match feels unnecessary.

Steveson’s lone UFC fight was still a scary striking statement. He landed 41 significant strikes on 57 attempts, scored a knockdown and finished Elisha Ellison in Round 1 while barely needing to wrestle. Ellison is arguably a better striker than Sharaf, and Stevenson dismantled him in less than a round.

Sharaf’s UFC results make me want even less of a striking gamble from Steveson. He has been stopped by second-round KO/TKO in both UFC appearances, absorbing 170 significant strikes from Steven Asplund and 71 from Junior Tafa.

After showing off his striking in his debut, Steveson has been talking like someone who wants to remind everyone how dominant his grappling is.

If Steveson grapples early, I do not see many competitive layers here. This is a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling against an ex-Marine who only started training full-time a few years ago. Steveson has the advantage everywhere, but the path to least resistance is clearly on the ground. With the knockout prop juiced as high as it is, all the value is on Steveson’s submission price.

Baraniewski vs Menifield Prediction

• Baraniewski vs Menifield Pick: Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO (-170 at Bet365)

Alonzo Menifield deserves credit for the Zhang Mingyang win, where he scored two knockdowns and finished it in Round 1. I still think he is clearly fading, and the recent striking volume is hard to ignore.

Across Menifield’s last six UFC outings, he has landed 162 significant strikes total, averaging only 27 per fight. The low points are ugly too, with one significant strike against Carlos Ulberg, two against Volkan Oezdemir and 15 against Azamat Murzakanov.

Menifield’s chin is the bigger issue for me. His last three losses were all KO/TKO defeats, and he was brutally knocked out by Ulberg, Murzakanov and Oezdemir. When Menifield loses, it tends to be quick and violent.

Iwo Baraniewski is the wrong kind of opponent for this version of Menifield. He is 9-0, has three straight UFC first-round KO/TKO wins, and already has four knockdowns across those three appearances. And unlike Zhang, Baraniewski has layers to his game that will not leave him helpless after just a few exchanges.

Baraniewski does not need a long reads-and-adjustments fight. He went right at Ibo Aslan, Austen Lane and Junior Tafa from the jump, and I trust his current power and durability more than Menifield’s ability to survive early fire.

Like Steveson, Baraniewski also has an elite grappling background that he has yet to show in the Octagon. Consider Baraniewski by submission (+1100) as a low-risk, high-reward longshot, but all signs point to another quick knockout to get ‘Rudy’ into the rankings.

Odds as of fight week at Bet365 Sportsbook. You can also trade the Van vs Pantoja 2 main event on prediction market apps if you would rather take a position than back the champion.