- Jedrzejczyk returns to the strawweight division at FN 161 (Saturday, Oct. 12)
- Cub Swanson is looking to snap his losing streak in the co-main event
- See the odds for the full main card of UFC Fight Night 161
The Octagon heads to Tampa Bay, Florida, on Saturday, Oct. 12, for UFC Fight Night 161. The main event is an intriguing strawweight bout between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson.
The co-main event sees Cub Swanson taking on jiu-jitsu ace Kron Gracie in what will be his second UFC fight.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Michelle Waterson Odds
All odds taken Oct. 9, 2019.
Does The Winner Earn a Title Shot?
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3) is coming off of a decision loss to Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 231 last December for the vacant flyweight title. The former strawweight queen moved up in weight for that fight. Before that, in her last fight at strawweight, she edged out a decision over Tecia Torres to get back into the win column after back-to-back losses to Rose Namajunas.
The Polish-fighter holds notable wins over Jessica Andrade, Claudia Gadelha, twice, and Jessica Penne.
Michelle Waterson (17-6) is riding a three-fight winning streak entering her second UFC main event. On her winning streak, she beat Cortney Casey, Felice Herrig, and most recently, Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The former Invicta FC atomweight champion also has wins over Penne, Paige VanZant, and Yasuko Tamada.
Tale of the Tape
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This should be a tough test for both fighters. Jedrzejczyk will no doubt have the striking and size advantage. The former UFC champion comes from a muay Thai background and has used her striking to win most of her fights.
She also has very good takedown defense; only Shevchenko has been able to put her on the mat consistently, but that was a size issue, something that won’t come up against Waterson.
For Joanna to win this fight, she will need to keep it on the feet and avoid the grappling exchanges from Waterson, who should look to shoot in a few times. In the end, I believe Jedrzejczyk will get her hand raised with a decision win.
Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-344)
Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie Odds
Can Cub Swanson Snap His Losing Streak?
Cub Swanson (25-11) is on a four-fight losing streak dating back to December 2017. On this losing streak, he has been submitted by Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano, and has decision losses to Frankie Edgar and Shane Burgos.
During his career, the fan-favorite has several notable wins like Jeremy Stephens, Artem Lobov, Dustin Poirier, Doo Ho Choi, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira.
Kron Gracie (5-0) is coming off of his UFC debut back in February, in which he submitted Alex Caceres in the first round. Before signing with the UFC, he competed in RIZIN, where all four of his wins came by stoppage. His resume features notable wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Hideo Tokoro.
Tale of the Tape
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A classic striker vs. grappler matchup, where an elite-level jiu-jitsu practitioner in Kron Gracie takes on the aging veteran in Cub Swanson.
For Swanson to emerge victorious, he will need to use his jab to keep Gracie at bay and ensure the fight stays upright.
However, we have seen Swanson get taken down and submitted a ton. He also gives up his neck quite often in grappling exchanges. If Gracie gets a hold of Swanson’s neck it is all over.
I think this is a tougher fight for Gracie than most pundits, but I still see the Brazilian getting the fight to the ground and submitting Swanson in the second or third round.
Pick: Kron Gracie (-157)
UFC Fight Night 161 Main Card Odds
Here are the odds for the remaining fights on the card.
*Note: Mike Davis vs. Thomas Gifford does not have odds as the fight was only made on Tuesday.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas Odds
Matt Frevola vs. Luis Pena Odds
Eryk Anders vs. Gerald Meerschaert Odds
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