UFC Fight Night Main Card Picks & Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan (Oct. 31)

• UFC Fight Night goes down Saturday, October 31 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas with Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan on top
• I have five picks on the board, and two of them come at plus money
• See my expert Moicano vs Nolan main card picks, predictions and odds below

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The UFC’s Halloween card goes down Saturday, October 31, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Moicano and Nolan headline a main card with a couple of tight lines and a few big favorites.

Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. Pacific), and the main card follows at 8 pm ET (5 pm Pacific) on Paramount+. Here are the UFC Fight Night main card odds and my picks for five of those bouts.

Selected UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Lightweight veteran Renato Moicano is a -125 favorite over the young Tom Nolan in the main event, an implied probability of about 55.6%. Luana Santos and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani are the biggest favorites on the main card at -303, roughly 75.2% each.

The flyweight bout between Ode’ Osbourne vs Cody Durden is the closest fight on the board. Durden sits at -115, and Osbourne comes back at -105.

Odds as of October 30th at BetMGM. American odds shown are approximate conversions from the verified BetMGM decimal board, not exact displayed American quotes. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC Fight Night or browse UFC betting apps.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Predictions

My card mixes three moneylines with two decision props. Brown at +220 and Hasanov by decision at +550 are the plus-money plays, while Luana Santos by decision comes in at -120.

Moicano vs Nolan Prediction

• Moicano vs Nolan Pick: Moicano ML (-125 at BetMGM)

Moicano’s UFC run follows a clear pattern. He beats the guys he can out-grapple and loses to the ones he can’t. Of his seven losses in the promotion, six have come against high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.

Moicano landed two or more takedowns or gotten a finish in 11 of his 13 UFC wins. His grappling prowess was on full display in April, with over three minutes of control time before his submission of Chris Duncan in Round 2.

Nolan is a good grappler, but still not elite, and Moicano should have a decent-sized advantage on the ground. Despite his clear striking advantage, the Aussie is often too willing to engage and compete in grappling exchanges, which is where Moicano wants him. I don’t think Nolan is at the level of Moicano’s top opponents yet, so I’m backing the savvy veteran on the moneyline.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Brown vs Smith Prediction

• Brown vs Smith Pick: Brown ML (+220 at BetMGM)

Randy Brown’s size will be a big factor in this matchup. ‘Rude Boy’ holds six-inch advantages in both height and reach, which is a big gap for Smith to close. Smith also took this fight on less than two weeks notice.

Smith is one of the most athletic and powerful fighters, but he’s taking a huge step up after consecutive wins over UFC debutants. If he can’t wrestle Brown, who has improved his takedown defense in recent years, I have doubts about his striking on the feet. His cardio after the first round is another question mark for me.

Smith’s physicality should give him a slight edge, but if he can’t secure takedowns, he could find himself in a lot of trouble on the feet. I like the value on Brown as the plus-money underdog.

Osbourne vs Durden Prediction

• Osbourne vs Durden Pick: Durden ML (-115 at BetMGM)

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Osbourne has been taken down in seven straight fights, including eight times across his last two. That’s a rough trend to carry into a fight with Durden.

Durden averages 3.82 takedowns as one of the most relentless wrestlers in the division. I expect him to chase the takedown early and often. Osbourne still has power, so Durden can’t get careless on his entries, but the sheer volume of his takedown attempts will be increasingly suffocating as the fight profresses.

Durden’s struggles tend to come against fighters who are simply better grapplers and scramblers on the mat. Osbourne is not that guy and has crumbled under wrestling pressure many times before.

Santos vs Santos Prediction

• Santos vs Santos Pick: Luana Santos by Decision (-120 at BetMGM)

Luana and Yana Santos might share the same name, but their fighting styles could not be more different. Luana Santos wants this fight on the ground, and Yana Santos needs to keep her distance to have success on the feet.

Yana Santos has historically struggled against grapplers. Karol Rosa, Aspen Ladd and Holly Holm all gave her problems, with Holm giving her the most trouble, landing four takedowns in a dominant win. The younger Santos fits that profile.

With her excellent Judo background, Luana Santos has elite top control. She’s averaged nearly five minutes of control per takedown in her last five wins. She’s also 10 years younger than Yana, and her striking keeps improving.

Both enter on a three-fight win streaks, but Luana Santos’ wins over Rosa, Croden and Lisboa are more impressive. I expect her to close the distance and grind out another one on the scorecards, so I’m taking the 26-year-old by decision.

UFC Fight Night Long Shot: Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov Prediction

• Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov Pick: Hasanov by Decision (+550 at BetMGM)

This is a wrestler against a grappler, and everyone likes the more dynamic Lebosnoyani to be the craftier fighter. That might be true, but I see many openings in his game for Hasanov to get his takedowns.

If nothing else, Hasanov will wrestle all night long. He attempted 27 takedowns in his UFC debut, a win over Eric Nolan in Baku. He’s going to keep coming no matter how impressive Lebosnoyani’s grappling credentials are.

Lebosnoyani is undoubtedly dangerous off his back, which he showed in his recent win over Seokhyeon Ko. He is quick to punish sloppy shots with counter submission attempts, and that threat is there every time Hasanov changes levels.

Even so, if Lebosnoyani can’t submit Hasanov off his back, he could spend long stretches on the bottom. Assuming a high-level wrestler training out of American Top Team can avoid falling into a guillotine, Hasanov could be much more competitive in this fight than the line gives him credit for.

Hasanov’s control time could be the difference in the main card opener, regardless of how unexciting it might be.