UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Allen vs. Costa

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa featherweight bout
• Allen is just 1-3 in his last four fights, but each loss came against a top featherweight contender
• See the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Allen vs Costa and more

The UFC is back in Vegas tonight for another fight night card. The event is headlined by the Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa bout, with Costa vowing to become the first man to knock out Allen. Online sportsbooks don’t like his chances, pegging Arnold as a -148 favorite, a line that has fluctuated substantially since opening odds were released.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:45 pm PT, 8:45 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions, and odds for Allen vs Costa and more.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of May 14 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

Allen vs Costa opened up at a near pick ’em, before money came flooding in on the Englishman. He jumped to a -190 favorite at one point, before we finally saw some buy back on his opponent. Now, with the line sitting at -148, I think there’s real value on Allen. He’s the more accomplished fighter, with a much better resume, and while Costa has won six straight bouts, they have all come against much less talented opponents.

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UFC Fight Night Picks: Arnold Allen Method of Victory

I’m betting Arnold by decision, a result that makes the most sense given the fighter’s profiles. It’s also a wager that makes sense looking at the betting board, as the bout is a big favorite to go beyond 4.5 rounds.

After a 9-0 start to his UFC tenure, Allen has dropped three of his past four fights. On the surface that may seem concerning, but each loss was to one of the featherweight’s top contenders (Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev, Max Holloway). Allen stood toe-to-toe with all three opponents, and forced a decision from the judges. Ultimately, he was on the wrong end, but the experience will give him plenty of confidence against inferior talents.

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Tale of the Tape

Allen has never been knocked out or finished in 24 professional fights, and owns one of the strongest chins in the division. That’s key versus Costa, who’s a finish or bust kind of fighter. Six of the Brazilian’s last nine victories have come inside the distance, and it feels like he’s being propped up by public money following his latest two knockouts over Dan Ige and Morgan Charriere.

In a 5 round main event, Allen’s ability to absorb power and return fire with consistent striking and superior wrestling should allow him to pull away in the later rounds. Costa represents an up and comer in the featherweight ranks, but Allen’s defense and high level experience will propel him to victory and back in position as a top title contender.

• UFC Fight Night Prediction #1: Arnold Allen by Decision (+165 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Picks: Malcolm Wellmaker Method of Victory

I’m also betting Malcolm Wellmaker to knock out newcomer Juan Diaz tonight. Wellmaker should be motivated following a disappointing loss at the end of last season, and this is a great spot to rebound versus a fighter making his UFC debut.

Wellmaker is a hefty -278 favorite, and it’s not hard to see why. He boasts a significant height and reach advantage, and has the reputation as an elite striker and prolific finisher. All four of his UFC victories have been by knockout, with three of those bouts ending in the opening round.

Stylistically, this is just a bad matchup for Diaz. He doesn’t have the power to match strikes with his opponent, and will to try and initiate his wrestling early. Wellmaker can effectively counter that strategy with his switch-stance, giving him the flexibility to catch his opponent as he tries to close the distance.

• UFC Fight Night Prediction #2: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO/DQ (+136 at Bet365)