UFC Fight Night Prelims Picks & Predictions: Best Bets Include Frye Jr vs Harris

• The Meta APEX hosts a heavy-hitting UFC Fight Night preliminary card today
• RJ Harris is laying heavy juice in the UFC Fight Night prelim odds, but his knockout prop is very enticing
• Read below for my expert UFC Fight Night prelim picks, predictions and best bets including Frye Jr vs Harris

The octagon returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV, today for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan. Sharp bettors know the real money is often made before the headliners even wrap their hands.

The early preliminary card kicks off at 4:00 PM ET, featuring a mix of stylistic clashes and heavy-hitting prospects.

My favorite target on this early slate is the heavyweight collision between Allen Rocky Frye Jr and RJ Harris. Navigating the betting landscape requires looking past raw win percentages to find actionable value in the prop markets.

Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Fight Night prelim picks, predictions and best bets including Frye Jr vs Harris.

UFC Fight Night Prelim Odds

Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

These BetMGM odds highlight some massive favorites on the early slate. Franco at -385 and Harris at -357 are the two shortest prices on the board, which is exactly why I am working the method-of-victory markets instead of laying that kind of juice.

Kareckaite vs Gatto is a true pick’em with both fighters priced inside -115, and the Frye Jr vs Harris odds point hard toward a finish with the distance “No” sitting at -417. Bettors should compare these lines across sportsbooks to identify the best actionable value before tailing any picks.

UFC Fight Night Prelim Predictions

UFC Fight Night Prelim Best Bet: Frye Jr vs Harris Prediction

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #1: RJ Harris to win by KO/TKO (-133 at BetMGM)

Harris enters this contest with a commanding physical presence. Frye Jr has shown durability issues when pressured early in fights.

Taking Harris on the straight moneyline at -357 eats way too much juice for my liking, effectively killing our return on investment.

The KO/TKO prop is the mathematically sound angle here. Harris will look to land heavy shots and close the show inside the scheduled three rounds. Betting him to find the knockout at -133 offers a solid plus-EV return.

Kareckaite vs Gatto Prediction: Melissa Gatto Moneyline

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #2: Melissa Gatto Moneyline (-115 at BetMGM)

This is a close fight on the number, so Gatto is preferable to a heavier favorite whose price leaves less room for error.

The key betting question is whether Kareckaite can consistently turn her offense into winning exchanges; if Gatto keeps the fight organized and avoids giving away long stretches of control, she has the more reliable route to a decision.

I do not need to predict a finish to back Gatto. At -115, the price is reasonable for a competitive matchup, and her composure should help her in the late rounds. The play is Gatto’s moneyline, with a decision win the most likely script.

Zheleznyakova vs Pereira Prediction: Alice Pereira Moneyline

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #3: Alice Pereira Moneyline (-133 at BetMGM)

Pereira is a modest favorite, which makes this a better spot than laying a premium number on the early slate. I expect her to focus on clean, repeatable work rather than chase a finish: win the striking exchanges, limit unnecessary scrambles and make Zheleznyakova work to create momentum.

The underdog’s best chance is to turn the fight into a messy, high-variance contest. Pereira becomes the stronger side if she can maintain distance, stay disciplined and bank rounds without overextending.

At -133, I’m backing Pereira to control enough of the action to earn the decision.

UFC Fight Night Prelim Long-Shot Pick: Price vs Shahbazyan Prediction

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #4: Niko Price Moneyline (+120 at BetMGM)

This welterweight scrap promises high striking volume and plenty of chaos. Shahbazyan is favored here, but I see clear value on the underdog.

Price thrives in dirty brawls and brings a relentless pace that consistently wilts younger prospects.

Shahbazyan has struggled with late-fight cardio in his recent outings. Price will happily eat early damage to drag his opponent into deep waters. Backing the veteran at plus money is a fantastic addition to my betting card. New users can sign up with the BetMGM promo code to score a bonus to use on this fight.

Ribeiro vs Franco Prediction: Felipe Franco by KO/TKO

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #5: Felipe Franco to win by KO/TKO (-105 at BetMGM)

Franco is a massive -385 favorite against Ribeiro in this all-Brazilian light heavyweight clash. The oddsmakers clearly expect Franco to dictate the pace and secure an early finish.

The Goes the Distance “No” prop is priced at a staggering -714, signaling massive finish equity.

Surviving all three rounds is beyond Ribeiro’s wildest dreams here. Instead of laying that absurd juice on the moneyline, I am targeting Franco to win by knockout.

Ribeiro leaves his chin exposed during boxing exchanges, and Franco packs enough power to turn those defensive lapses into a highlight-reel finish.

Bonfim vs Prado Prediction: Francisco Prado Moneyline

• UFC Fight Night Prelim Pick #6: Francisco Prado Moneyline (-143 at BetMGM)

Prado and Bonfim are scheduled for a highly anticipated lightweight clash. Prado sits as a moderate favorite, and I am fully comfortable backing him at this current price tag.

He possesses a distinct technical striking advantage and excellent distance management.

Bonfim is certainly dangerous, but his output has cratered in the later rounds of his recent fights. Prado has the exact tactical toolkit required to exploit those fading cardio reserves. I expect him to bank the early rounds and cruise to a clear victory.