UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Ardelean vs Viana

• Saturday’s UFC Las Vegas Prelims feature 6 fights, including the Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana strawweight bout
• Ardelean boasts a 73% expected rounds win rate versus just a 45% mark for her opponent
• See my UFC Las Vegas prelims predictions, picks and best bets including Ardelean vs Viana

UFC Las Vegas is set to go down in a few hours, with the six Prelims fights serving as the appetizer to tonight’s Main Card. Of those six bouts, the Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana strawweight matchup is my favorite fight to target, as I see real value on Ardelean to win on the judges’ scorecards.

The UFC Las Vegas Prelims are set to get underway at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 5:45 pm PT, 8:45 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Las Vegas Prelims predictions and picks, along with my best bets, including Ardelean vs Viana.

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Alice Ardelean Method of Victory

• UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #1: Alice Ardelean by Decision (-115 at Bet365)

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Ardelean will enter the Octagon as a sizeable -205 moneyline favorite, and while I don’t hate betting her straight up or including her as a parlay leg, the real value lies on her to win by decision.

Ardelean is fresh off back-to-back victories, both by unanimous decision, and sports a 2-2 UFC record overall. While those numbers may seem underwhelming, a closer look at the data shows a woman who is dominating her fights. Ardelean owns a 73% expected rounds win rate, and lands an absurd amount of strikes. She’s averaging 7.35 significant strikes per minute, nearly five more than her opponent. Of course, she also absorbs twice as many shots as Viana, but despite taking a high amount of punishment, she’s never been knocked out in 18 career fights.

Ardelean has zero finishes in four UFC fights, and her entire strategy is built around outworking and out-pointing the opposition. Given Viana’s ridiculously low striking volume (2.74/minute), Ardelean shouldn’t have to work too hard to accomplish the feat.

Viana does boast a significant height and reach advantage, but there’s not much else to talk yourself into. She’s currently riding a three-fight losing streak and only owns a 45% expected rounds win rate.

I expect the bulk of this fight to be spent standing up, but if it does go to the mat that doesn’t bode well for Viana either. Ardelean averages just 1 takedown per 15 minutes, but on the mat, she owns an 87% control rate compared to a 13% mark for her opponent.

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Andre Petroski Method of Victory

• UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #2: Andre Petroski by Decision (+165 at DraftKings)

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Next up, I’m targeting another method of victory prop, taking Andre Petroski to win by decision over Cody Brundage. Both middleweights enter riding multiple fight losing streaks, and this could very well be a loser-leaves-the-promotion fight, given how strong the division is.

With the stakes even higher than usual, I expect a cautious approach from both. Petroski owns a slight advantage in the stand-up game, in terms of both striking volume and accuracy, but his real advantage comes on the ground. He averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, and owns a significantly higher control rate on the mat than his opponent.

Andre Petroski Grappling Stats

Brundage, meanwhile, has had trouble defending his back on the ground, and that’s a real weakness that Petroski can exploit. One of Petroski’s biggest attributes is his ability to move from weak to strong positions on the mat. He’s incredibly strong, so he can muscle his way out of trouble, but he’s also surprisingly smooth for a man of his size. Because of his immense strength, Petroski is nearly impossible to submit, and I envision this fight playing out with him taking Brundage down repeatedly and dominating control time on the ground.