UFC Prelims Predictions, Best Bets & Long-Shot Picks | Noche UFC
By Chris Amberley in Mixed Martial Arts News
Published:
- The Noche UFC prelims offer massive betting value before the main card fireworks
- Fading aging veterans with durability issues is my favorite way to bet these fights
- Read my UFC Noche prelims predictions, best bets and long-shot picks below
The Octagon heads to Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona, for an action-packed night of fights today. The betting action kicks off with the prelims at 2:15 PM ET on Paramount+.
My favorite target on this card involves backing hungry prospects against veterans whose durability has slipped. Below, you’ll find plenty of live underdogs and method-of-victory props to build your bankroll.
Let’s dive into my favorite Noche UFC prelims predictions, best bets and long-shot picks headlined by Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov.
Noche UFC Prelims Odds
Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Ensure you lock in the best number with a BetMGM promo code before placing your wagers on this Noche UFC card.
These Noche UFC prelims odds highlight a mix of heavy favorites and tight matchups. Yousri Belgaroui at -900, Bahamondes at -588 and Thomas Gantt at -455 are the three steepest prices on the early card, and none are worth laying straight.
The distance props tell the story about where the finishing upside sits. Klose vs Gantt is -294 to end inside and Bahamondes vs Salikhov is -303, while Aldrich vs Tarin at -278 and Garcia vs Zhu at -200 are the two the board expects to reach the scorecards.
Noche UFC Prelims Predictions
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO
- Noche UFC Prelims Pick #1: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO (-128 at BetMGM)
In this compelling welterweight matchup, I am backing the surging Bahamondes to get his hand raised. He has proven to be a lethal finisher inside the Octagon, utilizing his length and dynamic striking to end fights early.
He demonstrated this exceptional finishing upside in quick first-round stoppage victories over Jalin Turner and Manuel Torres. Conversely, the 42-year-old Salikhov has begun to show serious durability concerns.
The veteran suffered devastating first-round knockout losses to both Uros Medic and Randy Brown recently. Given Bahamondes’ aggressive approach and Salikhov’s struggles to absorb damage, expect the Chilean prospect to find the target and put Salikhov away.
Noche UFC Prelims Prediction: Rong Zhu Moneyline
- Noche UFC Prelims Pick #2: Rong Zhu Moneyline (-167 at BetMGM)
My play in this lightweight contest is on the highly active Rong Zhu to outpoint Rafa Garcia. When breaking down the raw striking numbers, Zhu’s volume and accuracy stand out as key differentiators.
In a recent victory over Austin Hubbard, Zhu landed a staggering 101 significant strikes at a 51.27% clip. Garcia simply does not match that level of offensive production.
In his recent decision win over Alexander Hernandez, Garcia managed only 59 significant strikes with a pedestrian 34.91% accuracy rate. I expect Zhu to maintain a blistering pace, dictate the terms of the fight, and cruise to a victory on the judges’ scorecards. Make sure you shop the odds with the UFC betting apps to find the best price.
Klose vs Gantt Pick: Thomas Gantt by Submission
- Noche UFC Prelims Pick #3: Thomas Gantt by Submission (+225 at BetMGM)
Undefeated prospect Thomas Gantt looks primed to make a major statement at the expense of veteran Drakkar Klose. Gantt has been a terror in his young career, showing a well-rounded skill set.
He showcased pinpoint striking in his knockout win over Artur Minev, landing his significant strikes at an absurd 73.68% accuracy rate. Klose has been a staple of the lightweight division, but his chin has failed him in crucial moments.
While Gantt has heavy hands, he proved his ground game is just as dangerous with a rapid first-round submission over Adam Livingston. At these plus-money odds, I love the value on Gantt finding a neck.
Elliott vs Chairez Best Bet: Edgar Chairez Moneyline
- Noche UFC Prelims Pick #4: Edgar Chairez Moneyline (-222 at BetMGM)
In a catchweight bout that promises chaotic scrambles, I am taking Edgar Chairez to pull off the victory against the wildly unpredictable Tim Elliott. Chairez has developed into a genuine submission threat, constantly hunting for necks the moment the fight hits the mat.
This opportunistic grappling has yielded fantastic results, securing him first-round tap-outs against both Bruno Silva and Carlos Vergara. Elliott is notoriously difficult to prepare for, but his chaotic style often leaves glaring openings for sharp submission artists.
Coming off a decision loss where he absorbed 136 significant strikes, Elliott may look to force grappling exchanges early. If he gets careless in transitions, expect Chairez to wrap up a submission and cash this ticket.
Noche UFC Prelims Long-Shot Pick: JJ Aldrich Moneyline
- Noche UFC Prelims Pick #5: JJ Aldrich Moneyline (+240 at BetMGM)
Every bettor loves a live underdog, and JJ Aldrich fits the bill perfectly for my long-shot pick. While Regina Tarin enters as a heavy favorite, I believe the betting public is severely undervaluing the veteran experience Aldrich brings to the cage.
Tarin has a habit of leaving her chin exposed during wild striking exchanges. If Aldrich can weather the early storm and use her sharp grappling fundamentals to dictate top control, she can absolutely drag Tarin into deep waters.
Backing Aldrich at this price provides immense value for bettors looking to capitalize on a mispriced line.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
