UFC Prelims Predictions, Best Bets & Long-Shot Picks | UFC Vegas 120

• The UFC Vegas 120 prelims run deep with short favorites before Gamrot vs Salkilld headlines the main card
• With so much chalk on the board, the value lives in the method props and a couple of live underdogs
• See my UFC Prelims predictions, best bets and long-shot picks for UFC Vegas 120, below

UFC Vegas 120 lands at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, with the prelim action kicking off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. This breakdown is focused strictly on the undercard, where the board offers several cleaner angles than forcing a play on the main event.

My favorite target on the prelims is the light heavyweight clash between Diyar Nurgozhay and Bruno Lopes. Nurgozhay brings serious striking pressure, offering strong betting value before the main card begins.

I have combed through the board to find the most exploitable lines. Here are my UFC Prelims predictions, best bets and long-shot picks for UFC Vegas 120, starting with the Nurgozhay vs Lopes value spot.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Odds

Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Vegas 120 on Saturday.

The prelim board is stacked with short favorites. Juliana Miller at -325, Manoel Sousa at -300, and Steven Asplund at -300 are the heaviest chalk plays, which pushes the value into the method markets rather than the moneyline. Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas is the closest thing to a pick’em on the undercard.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Predictions

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Best Bet: Diyar Nurgozhay Moneyline

• Diyar Nurgozhay Moneyline (-155 at BetMGM)

Lopes simply does not throw enough volume to win minutes. He landed only 33 significant strikes in a full three-round decision over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. Against Navajo Stirling, Lopes mustered just 28 strikes before getting stopped.

Nurgozhay is the side I trust to dictate pace, bank the cleaner rounds, and outpoint Lopes over three rounds. I am happily eating the -155 juice on the more active fighter.

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UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Best Bet: Juliana Miller by Submission

• Juliana Miller by Submission (+135 at BetMGM)

I am never laying -325 chalk on a straight moneyline, so I am targeting Miller to find a finish on the mat instead. Miller brings a suffocating grappling pedigree that exposes Oliveira’s defensive holes.

Against Brogan Walker, Miller secured four takedowns at 100% accuracy and racked up 9:40 of control time. She replicated that grinding success against Ivana Petrovic, locking down three takedowns and over eight minutes of control. She routinely drags opponents into deep waters.

Oliveira has historically struggled when put on her back. Miller is going to spam takedowns until Oliveira breaks. Grab the submission prop to avoid the heavy moneyline tax.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Best Bet: Steven Asplund by KO/TKO

• Steven Asplund by KO/TKO (+140 at BetMGM)

Heavyweight bouts can devolve into slow-paced stalemates, but Asplund defies that stereotype entirely. Since his moneyline sits at an unplayable -300, I am eyeing the KO/TKO market instead. Asplund is a buzzsaw on the feet.

He landed an astonishing 170 significant strikes at a 58.22% clip in a two-round destruction of Sean Sharaf. Even in a decision loss to Vitor Petrino, Asplund fired off 61 significant strikes. He forces opponents into chaotic brawls they are not equipped to win.

Pat lacks the metrics to survive this firestorm. When pressed by Thomas Petersen, Pat managed a meager 17 significant strikes before dropping the decision. Asplund is going to blitz early and often, and I expect him to find the chin long before the final horn.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Best Bet: Louie Sutherland Moneyline

• Louie Sutherland Moneyline (-200 at BetMGM)

Sutherland is not quite cheap enough to be my favorite bet on the prelim slate, but he is still the pick. His size, pace, and finishing threat should make him the more reliable minute-winner against Jose Montanha Da Silva.

At -200, I would rather use Sutherland in smaller parlays than chase a full straight bet, but he is the side I expect to advance.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Long Shot Picks: Jessie Rosas

• Jessie Rosas Moneyline (+120 at BetMGM)

Rosas is my underdog lean on the prelim card. Miles Johns is the more established name, but this is a playable dog spot if Rosas can force exchanges, keep Johns reacting, and avoid giving away long stretches of control.

At plus money, Rosas is worth a sprinkle as the value side.