UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Predictions & Lines: Allen vs Duncan Picks

• Brendan Allen meets Christian Leroy Duncan in a five round middleweight main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas
• Allen is a -135 favorite at Bet365 with Duncan sitting at +115
• See my expert UFC Vegas 122 main card predictions, lines and Allen vs Duncan picks below

---

The octagon returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Middleweight contenders Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan headline in a five-round bout, and the matchups run deep on this card.

Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Vegas 122 main card predictions and lines, plus my best bets and Allen vs. Duncan picks.

UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Odds

Odds as of October 10 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday.

The main event is the closest fight on the five-fight main card at -135 and +115, respectively, which is not unusual for a headliner with this much stakes. Loopy Godinez and Malcolm Wellmaker are the two biggest favorites at -225 apiece.

Nothing on this board is priced as a runaway, so the method and distance markets are where the longer prices live rather than the moneylines.

Four of these five fights are a clash of styles hinging on takedowns and control time, which is the kind of card that often prices better on prop boards than on straight sides. An Underdog Fantasy promo code gives you somewhere to put those grappling reads if the sportsbook numbers come back short.

UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Predictions

Allen vs Duncan Prediction

This is a five-round matchup that could start as an intriguing striking battle but would change completely if Brendan Allen gets on top. Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a five-fight winning streak, yet he has been taken down 10 times across his last three fights and spent more than 15 minutes in control positions for opponents.

Duncan showed his offensive upside against Jared Cannonier, landing 68 significant strikes at a 58.12 percent rate in a decision win. Allen has also been winning with his hands, landing 111 significant strikes against Marvin Vettori while adding three takedowns and 1:27 of control time.

But as dynamic as Duncan is on his feet, his biggest concern is Allen’s consistency in the wrestling exchanges. ‘All in’ has landed at least one takedown in nine of his last 11 fights, including six takedowns and 6:05 of control in his five-round win over Chris Curtis, and over 11 minutes of control time in his most recent main event victory over Reinier de Ridder. Whenever Allen gets the fight in his realm, he can be relentless and suffocating with his pressure.

Despite having such a clear hole in his game, Duncan has not been able to stop anyone who has tried to take him down. ‘CLD’ has been controlled for over 15 total minutes across his last three fights, including just allowing a 42-year-old Cannonier to land a career-high five takedowns in his last outing.

I expect Allen to pressure forward, force Duncan to defend repeatedly and make the fight physical. If Duncan keeps the fight standing, his explosion gives him a real chance, but my read is that Allen gets him down often enough to grind out the win.

• UFC Vegas 122 Pick #1: Brendan Allen ML (-120 at Bet365)

UFC Vegas 122 Best Bet: Camilo vs Herbert Prediction

I see this three-round fight being decided by whether Jai Herbert can stay upright. Herbert is 4-1 in UFC fights when his opponent does not land a takedown, but he is 0-4-1 when taken down even once. Even in his lone loss void of any takedowns, he was controlled against the fence by Chris Padilla for nearly four minutes.

Matheus Camilo might be coming off a big knockout of Nazim Sadykhov, but he has cut his teeth as a grappler. The Brazilian averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed seven takedowns across his first two UFC fights, including five takedowns and 3:22 of control in his most recent decision win over Viacheslav Borshchev.

Herbert can create problems at range, but his recent split decision loss to Padilla showed how difficult it is for him to build offense when his movement is disrupted. Herbert landed 38 significant strikes in that fight, but he had just 1 second of control and failed on his lone takedown attempt.

I expect Camilo to close distance early, chain his entries together and keep Herbert working from his back. Herbert has been able to consistently get up before, but at 38, that window is closing.

• UFC Vegas 122 Pick #2: Matheus Camilo by Decision (+320 at Bet365)

Godinez vs Souza Prediction

Ketlen Souza has had clear issues against strong grapplers, getting taken down 10 times across her three UFC losses. Her debut ended by submission after she was domainted on the mat, which makes Loopy Godinez a particularly difficult stylistic opponent.

Godinez averages 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and is the best wrestler Souza has faced in this stretch. The Mexican can be inconsistent, yet showed her control-heavy approach in her recent win over Julia Polastri, landing five takedowns and holding 7:30 of control in a decision win.

Souza is capable on the feet, showing off volume in her win over Marnic Mann and power in her first-round club-and-sub submission of Yazmin Jauregui in 2024. Still, she only has two successful takedowns in the UFC on a 13 percent clip. Most concerning, she owns a subpar 53 percent takedown defense, even if she has been able to mitigate damage on the ground.

Godinez’s losses since 2023 have come against bigger, stronger grapplers, and Souza does not bring that same physical profile. I expect Godinez to win the positioning battles, pile up takedowns and take the decision.

• UFC Vegas 122 Pick #3: Loopy Godinez by Decision (-115 at Bet365)

Fili vs Kamaka Prediction

I expect a measured 15-minute fight between two veterans coming off brutal TKO losses. Neither Andre Fili nor Kai Kamaka III is traditionally known as a power hitter, so I expect both men to be more selective than usual in the early exchanges.

The underdog Kamaka brings the cleaner volume game. He averages 5.5 significant strikes per minute and landed 105 significant strikes at a 66.04 percent rate in his most recent decision win, while Fili landed 62 significant strikes in his last 15-minute fight.

Fili’s advantage is the variety in his movement and counter-striking that maximizes his lanky frame. He has also shown enough grappling to change the rhythm, landing four takedowns in a recent loss to Jose Delgado, but Kamaka has generally been comfortable defending himself over long stretches and forcing opponents to match his output.

I expect Kamaka to lead with volume while Fili uses angles, feints and counters to keep the exchanges competitive. My read is a competitive, technical battle that reaches the scorecards rather than a fight decided by one clean power shot.

• UFC Vegas 122 Pick #4: Fili vs Kamaka Fight Goes to Decision (-145 at Bet365)

UFC Vegas 122 Pick: Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi Prediction

This is a difficult matchup for Malcolm Wellmaker after back-to-back losses to wrestlers. Otari Tanzilovi averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his best moments come after he gets to the hips and turns wrestling positions into control or finishes.

Tanzilovi’s entries are the issue for me. He attempted 16 takedowns in his split decision loss to Josias Musasa and landed four, then went 5-for-9 in his UFC debut loss to Shane Collins, who was much more willing to engage in grappling exchanges. Wellmaker has struggled to defend wrestling thus far, but his athleticism and strength should make those shots much harder to complete cleanly. Tanzilovi struggled with those intangible factors against Musasa.

If Tanzilovi cannot get takedowns, he will be in serious trouble on the feet. With four knockdowns in his last five fights, Wellmaker’s power speaks for itself, and Tanzilovi has a terrible habit of allowing himself to back into the cage. Wellmaker does his best work as a counter-striker but vowed to fight with more urgency after his last loss to Juan Diaz.

I like Tanzilovi’s wrestling once he reaches the legs, but I do not like how easily he gives up ground under striking pressure. The first fighter to implement his game plan will likely win this matchup running away, and I expect Wellmaker to punish the entries, force Tanzilovi into the fence and end his skid in emphatic fashion.

• UFC Vegas 122 Pick #5: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO (+150 at Bet365)

Odds as of October 10 at Bet365 Sportsbook. A theScore Bet promo code is worth grabbing if you want a second board to check these numbers against before the main card.