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UFC Vegas 11 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Covington vs Woodley

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Sep 14, 2020 · 1:35 PM PDT

UFC Vegas 11
In the main event of UFC Vegas 11, Colby Covington battles Tyron Woodley
  • Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley will finally share the Octagon after years rumors
  • Fan-favorite Donald Cerrone battles Niko Price in a fantastic co-main event
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 10 main card, below

The Ultimate Fighting Championship remains in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Sep. 19) for UFC Vegas 11.

In the main event, top-five welterweights Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley finally share the Octagon after first being rumored to fight in September 2018.

The co-main event sees Donald Cerrone looking to snap his losing streak against the always exciting Niko Price.

The UFC Vegas 11 main card airs live on ESPN at 8:00 pm ET. The table below shows odds for the main card at FanDuel and DraftKings, followed by best bets for the event.

UFC Vegas 11 Main Card Odds

Fighter Odds at FanDuel Odds at DraftKings
Colby Covington -360 -360
Tyron Woodley +290 +275
Fighter Odds Odds
Donald Cerrone +138 +130
Niko Price -170 -159
Fighter Odds Odds
Khamzat Chimaev -430 -500
Gerald Meerschaert +320 +360
Fighter Odds Odds
Johnny Walker -122 -137
Ryan Spann +100 +110
Fighter Odds Odds
Mackenzie Dern -188 -190
Randa Markos +152 +150

All odds taken Sept. 14.

Who Wins the Grudge Match?

Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley was going to headline a pay-per-view in 2018 and would’ve been one of the biggest fights the promotion could have made at the time. Contract negotiations derailed that prospective bout, but the two will finally share the Octagon on Saturday night in the main event of UFC Vegas 11.

Covington & Woodley Recent Fights


Kamaru Usman, loss by TKO Fight 1 Gilbert Burns, loss by decision
Robbie Lawler, win by decision Fight 2 Kamaru Usman, loss by decision
Rafael dos Anjos, win by decision Fight 3 Darren Till, win by submission
Demian Maia, win by decision Fight 4 Demian Maia, win by decision

In their primes, this would have been a phenomenal fight between two of the best welterweights in the world who genuinely hate each other.

Although it is good we are finally getting this fight, it would’ve been much more competitive back in 2018. In his last two fights, Woodley has not looked like himself and failed to pull the trigger. Covington also has the worst style for him given he is a pressure fighter who uses grappling to his advantage.

Expect Covington to push the pace from the beginning and mix striking and takedowns to wear down Woodley just as Kamaru Usman did.

Covington should win this fight but -360 is hard to lay, so perhaps look for a Covington-by-decision prop.

Pick: Colby Covington (-360)

Covington vs Woodley Stats


32 Age 38
5’11” Height 5’9″
72″ Reach 74″
4 UFC finishes 6

Can Cerrone Snap His Losing Skid?

Donald Cerrone and Niko Price are never in boring fights and this could easily be a three-round, Fight of the Night slug-fest. Both Cerrone and Price get better after they have been hit a few times and both have proven they have a solid chin and can take a couple of shots.

Cerrone & Price Recent Fights

[matchup teamone='Cerrone' teamtwo='Price']

Anthony Pettis, loss by decision Fight 1 Vicente Luque, loss by TKO
Conor McGregor, loss by TKO Fight 2 James Vick, win by KO
Justin Gaethje, loss by KO Fight 3 Geoff Neal, loss by TKO
Tony Ferguson, loss by TKO Fight 4 Tim Means, win by KO

Cerrone has had a tough road as of late but I actually like this matchup for him. Cowboy is a solid striker and should have the ground advantage over Price. Cerrone also has proven his chin is much better at welterweight and Price doesn’t have that one-punch knockout power.

Expect this fight to go into the second or third round and Cerrone to take over with his cardio, winning by decision or late TKO.

Pick: Donald Cerrone (+138)

Other UFC Vegas 11 Picks:

  • Khamzat Chimaev (-430): Chimaev should be able to take Meerschaert down and earn a TKO win. Yet, at -430 I wouldn’t bet that price.
  • Johnny Walker (-122): Walker is the more powerful striker and will eventually connect and knock out Ryan Spann.
  • Mackenzie Dern (-188): Dern will be able to get this fight to the ground and get a submission win.
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