Knicks vs Spurs Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Game 5)

• The New York Knicks are 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 5 of the NBA Finals vs the Spurs in San Antonio
• Sharp money heavily backs New York on the moneyline to clinch its first NBA Championship since 1973
• Read below for the latest Knicks vs Spurs picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splites for Game 5

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The NBA season could come to an end tonight with the New York Knicks clinching the title series in Game 5 vs the San Antonio Spurs.

After an historic blown lead of 29 points in Game 4, the Spurs will now need to win three straight to claim their own title, beginning Saturday night at home.

The books at least think they have a shot, pinning them as pretty solid home favorites in the NBA odds.

Tip-off is scheduled tonight at 8:30pm ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, with ABC broadcasting nationally.

Read below as I share the latest Knicks vs Spurs odds, as well as my prediction and betting splits for Game 5.

Knicks vs Spurs Prediction

• Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Making San Antonio’s ability to survive just a little tougher, they may not have the services of backup big man Luke Kornet (illness), who is listed as questionable.

While Victor Wembanyama handles the lion’s share of minutes in the paint, Kornet’s availability is important for spell minutes. New York is an absolute force on the glass, leading all playoff teams in total rebound percentage (54.6%) and generating 17.7 second-chance points per game.

If Kornet cannot suit up, San Antonio’s frontcourt rotation becomes dangerously thin. This would force Wembanyama to play heavier minutes or require smaller lineups. Against a bruising New York squad anchored by Karl-Anthony Towns, any reduction in San Antonio’s interior depth gives the Knicks a clearer path to dominating the paint and controlling the tempo.

That’s only part of the reason I see massive value tilting toward the road underdog.

The Spurs enter the contest as 5.5-point favorites, but fading the Knicks right now means fighting against some ridiculous situational trends.

New York has been an absolute wagon for bettors, going a stellar 12-3 against the spread over its last 15 games.

Even more impressively, the Knicks are a flawless 4-0 against the spread when catching points this postseason. They have also won their last eight consecutive road games straight up against opponents with a winning record.

Given their pristine recent execution in hostile environments, taking the 5.5 points with New York is my safest play.

NY Knicks vs SA Spurs Picks

Total Pick: Under 216.5 (-110 at BetMGM): The Under has hit in five of New York’s last six games when facing top-10 scoring defenses. San Antonio shows identical tendencies, with the Over hitting once in its last four games against quality opponents. Expect a physical, half-court battle that stays well below the number.

Best Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 points (-111 at DraftKings): If New York is going to steal this road victory, they need heavy offensive production from their floor general. Brunson is the primary engine of a hyper-efficient perimeter attack that ranks first in the playoffs in Offensive Rating (118.0). New York needs him to light the lamp from deep to pull Wembanyama away from the paint.

Knicks vs Spurs Odds and Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Don’t forget to use theScore Bet promo code to bet on Knicks vs Spurs Game 5.

San Antonio currently sits as a 5.0-point home favorite at Caesars, though the juice slightly leans toward New York on it’s 5.5-point spread at DraftKings (-112).

The total is set at a modest 216.5 points, reflecting the elite defensive capabilities both squads have demonstrated. The Over pays out at -110 odds at bet365, and -105 for the Under at Caesars.

For bettors looking to play the moneyline, a $20 wager on the Knicks at +165 would yield a $33 profit, resulting in a total payout of $53.00. A matching $20 bet on the Spurs at -190 would return a $10 profit, for a total payout of $30.00.

Looking NBA Public Betting Trends and Betting Splits, bettors are leaning slightly toward my official prediction on the spread. The Knicks are currently drawing 64% of the betting tickets and 63% of the overall handle.

The moneyline presents a massive divergence between casual bettors and sharp action. The Spurs are pulling in the majority of tickets at 61%, but 59% of the actual money is backing New York to win outright.

While the ticket count falls a microscopic fraction short of the strict 60% threshold for a true sharp-versus-public grade, the discrepancy is impossible to ignore. Respected bettors see clear value on the road team.

If you are tailing my Under 216.5 prediction, I am taking a staunchly contrarian position right alongside you. The betting public is heavily invested in a track meet, with an overwhelming 85% of the tickets and 83% of the money pounding the Over. Fading such massive public alignment can be daunting, but going against the grain often provides hidden value in a physical Finals matchup.