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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Player Props to Bet (Feb. 29)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NBA Basketball

Updated Feb 29, 2024 · 4:40 PM PST

Jun 12, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles the ball againstMiami Heat forward Haywood Highsmith (24) and guard Kyle Lowry (back) during the second quarter in game five of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat travel to face the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night
  • The NBA odds favor Denver in this NBA Championship rematch
  • Read below for our Heat vs Nuggets prediction, odds & player props to bet

The Miami Heat (33-25) will travel to face the defending champion Denver Nuggets (39-19) on Thursday, February 29 at Ball Arena in Denver. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 PM ET on TNT.

The Nuggets come in as 5-point favorites at most sportsbooks, with the total set at 214 points. Denver is being offered at -210 on the moneyline while Miami is +180 underdogs.

What’s the best bet to make for the Miami vs Denver game? Here’s our Heat vs Nuggets prediction, along with odds and player prop picks.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
MIA Heat +5.0 (-110) +165 Over 214.0 (-110)
DEN Nuggets -5.0 (-110) -200 Under 214.0 (-110)

In the Heat vs Nuggets odds, Denver is favored at -200 on the moneyline, giving them 67% implied probability to defeat Miami on their home court.

When these teams matched up in the 2023 NBA Finals, the Nuggets defeated the Heat 4-1 to capture the franchise’s first-ever championship. Denver also won two out of the three regular-season meetings last year.


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Odds as of February 29, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on Heat vs Nuggets. Bettors outside of Colorado should check out the top sportsbook betting apps.

Heat Are Scorching Hot

The Heat are riding a five-game winning streak and have won nine of their last 11 contests overall. Most recently, Miami went on the road and beat the Portland Trail Blazers 106-96 behind 22 points from Jimmy Butler. Newly acquired point guard Terry Rozier added 19 points in his return from a four-game absence due to a knee injury.

For Miami, Butler leads the way, averaging 22.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Center Bam Adebayo chips in with 18.7 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks a night. Rozier, who Miami traded for in late January, is starting to find his groove and provide valuable playmaking next to Butler in the backcourt.

Over their last 10 games, the Heat are 6-4 straight up and 8-2 against the spread (ATS). The total has gone under in six of Miami’s last seven overall, primarily due to their third-ranked defense allowing only 109 points per game.

There are some Miami Heat injuries to note before betting this game. Forward Kevin Love (heel) and center Thomas Bryant (suspension) have already been ruled out. Shooting guard Tyler Herro (knee) is questionable after sitting out the last two games.

Nuggets Also on a Roll

The Nuggets have also been hot of late, winning four straight games including a 117-96 home victory over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. Reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic recorded his 19th triple-double of the season and Jamal Murray scored 32 points on extremely efficient 13-15 shooting.

Denver is paced by Jokic, who is averaging a triple-double on the season with 25.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists per contest. Murray, now over a year removed from ACL surgery, looks fully healthy and is putting up 23.7 points and 5.4 assists per game as Jokic’s running mate.

Three-point specialist Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (14.7 PPG) and forward Michael Porter Jr. (14.5 PPG) round out a potent starting five. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU over their past 10 games but an even better 9-1 ATS over that same span.

The Nuggets are relatively healthy, but could opt to rest Murray after he played 33 minutes on Wednesday. Backup forward Vlatko Cancar remains out indefinitely recovering from knee surgery.

Heat vs Nuggets Player Props

NBA player props are now available for the Heat vs Nuggets Finals rematch, with Nikola Jokic projected to score the most points. ‘Joker,’ who is the favorite in the NBA MVP odds, is projected to record 26 points on Thursday night, while his rebounds player prop is set at 12.5.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Nikola Jokic 25.5 (Ov -119 | Un -115) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -109) 9.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 0.5 (Ov -244 | Un +172)
Jimmy Butler 20.5 (Ov -106 | Un -129) 5.5 (Ov -101 | Un -135) 4.5 (Ov -137 | Un +100) 0.5 (Ov -189 | Un +136)
Jamal Murray 20.5 (Ov -117 | Un -117) 3.5 (Ov -139 | Un +102) 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -157) 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -119)
Bam Adebayo 18.5 (Ov -123 | Un -111) 10.5 (Ov -119 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -179 | Un +129) OFF
Tyler Herro 17.5 (Ov -127 | Un -108) 4.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 3.5 (Ov -123 | Un -111) 2.5 (Ov -151 | Un +110)
Terry Rozier 14.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 3.5 (Ov +106 | Un -145) 4.5 (Ov -119 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -127 | Un -108)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 10.5 (Ov -109 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov +104 | Un -142) 1.5 (Ov -189 | Un +136) 1.5 (Ov -129 | Un -106)

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NBA player prop odds as of Feb. 29 at Caesars Sportsbook.

In the Heat vs Nuggets player props, we are looking to target Jimmy Butler to make at least one three-pointer on Thursday. He’s made at least one shot from downtown in 12 straight games, and the Nuggets rank just 14th in 3-point defense (36%).

The Jimmy Butler three-point player prop line has shortened significantly at sportsbooks, so you are likely best off pairing it with our game prediction below in an NBA same-game parlay.

Heat vs Nuggets Prediction 2024

The Heat are out for revenge after their Finals loss and catching the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back spot is advantageous. Miami’s defense has been locking down opponents and they have covered the spread in eight straight contests.

Meanwhile, Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its previous seven games without a rest advantage. The Nuggets also land in a prime letdown spot after blowing out Sacramento, a team they lost to earlier this month.

Expect this to be a close, lower-scoring game between two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams. When making a Heats vs Nuggets prediction, consider backing the motivated underdogs catching points.

MIA-DEN Picks:

  • Miami +5 (-110)
  • Miami ML (+165)


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