Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Predictions, Props & Odds (Dec. 28)
- Missing Jimmy Butler (knee injury), the Miami Heat visit the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night
- The Warriors had a five-game win streak snapped at Denver on Christmas Day
- See the Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors odds, player props, and predictions for Dec. 28
With an injury report roughly the length of Thomas Bryant’s wingspan, the Miami Heat (18-12, 9-6 away, 14-15-1 ATS) commence a west-coast road trip against the Golden State Warriors (15-15, 9-6 home, 14-15-1 ATS) on Thursday night at 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET.
While the Heat have been more consistent this season and are tied for the most road wins in the Eastern Conference, the healthier Warriors are 3.5-point betting favorites on Thursday night at the Chase Center.
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +3.5 (-110) | +130 | O 228.5 (-110) |
| Golden State Warriors | -3.5 (-110) | -150 | U 228.5 (-110) |
The Heat are +130 moneyline underdogs while the game total is at 228.5 in Thursday’s NBA odds, the lowest total for a Warriors game in over a month.
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Wounded Heat Head West on Three-Game Win Streak
Few teams in the NBA have been hit as hard by the injury bug this season as the Heat. Five of Miami’s top-seven scorers have missed at least six games. Jaime Jaquez Jr is the only one to suit up for all 30 so far. Tonight, Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.6 APG) is out with a knee injury, while both Caleb Martin (11.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Josh Richardson (10.0 PPG, 3.0 AGP) are doubtful, and Kyle Lowry (9.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Duncan Robinson (15.1 PPG, 3.1 APG) are questionable in Thursday’s NBA lineups.
Despite all the banged-up bodies, Miami earned a 119-113 win over Philadelphia on Christmas without Butler and Richardson (though the Sixers were missing current NBA MVP favorite Joel Embiid).
Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr had the best game of this young career, dropping a team-high 31 points on 11-of-15 shooting and grabbing 10 rebounds while making just his seventh start.
The win over Philadelphia was the third in a row for Miami and the sixth in its past eight. Though it was Miami’s first win over a top-four team in either conference this season, going 0-5 against Boston, Milwaukee, and Minnesota prior.
Despite all the injuries, Miami’s offense has actually played better than last season. The team sits 15th in the league in Offensive Rating (115.6), which is significantly better than 2022-23 (25th at 112.3). Their defense has been slightly worse at 113.8 (13th) this season compared to 112.8 (9th) last year.
Warriors Almost Hitting Their Stride
Heading into a Christmas Day tilt with the reigning-champion Nuggets, Golden State had won five in a row to get back above .500 and into a top-ten berth in the NBA playoff bracket. Steph Curry and company put up a solid fight against the Nuggets, who are 12-2 at home this season, but came up short in a 120-114 setback.
If their stars had shown up, the outcome might have been different, but Curry had just 18 points on 7-of-21 shooting from the field (3-of-13 from three) while Klay Thompson had a paltry nine points on 3-of-12 shooting. Andrew Wiggins had a team-high 22 points off the bench,
That road loss didn’t impact Golden State’s current home win streak, which reached eight games after the thumped Portland 126-106 at the Chase Center on Dec. 23. That eight-game streak includes Ws over the Rockets, Clippers, and the NBA-leading Celtics.
MIA vs GSW Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) | 9.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124) | 4.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) | OFF |
| Brandin Podziemski (GSW) | 10.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) | 5.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) | 3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124) | 1.5 (Ov -100| Un -130) |
| Jonathan Kuminga (GSW) | 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) | 4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -160) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 18.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) | 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | OFF | 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) |
| Steph Curry (GSW) | 27.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) | 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un +140) | 4.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130) | 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Tyler Herro (MIA) | 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) | 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) | 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) | 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) |
Player props from the DraftKings app.
Mired in a relative slump, Curry has the highest point total at 27.5 in the Heat/Warriors NBA player props. While he’s averaging 27.9 PPG this season, he’s been held under 20 points in three of his past seven games. That said, he also dropped 30 in three of his past seven.
Heat vs Warriors Prediction
Even fully if Miami was healthy, I would have a strong lean to the Warriors as slim 3.5-point home favorites on Thursday. After starting an incomprehensible 1-6 at home, the Dubs have returned to the at-home dominance fans have gotten used to in the Curry/Thompson era. Since 2015, Golden State has the best home record in all of basketball (504-276, a 64.6 win percentage), which is 20 more wins than any other team.
While the current iteration of Golden State bears little resemblance to the record-setting teams of last decade, there is still enough talent to maintain a semblance of that homecourt domination.
Heat vs Warriors pick: Warriors moneyline (-150) – two units
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:
- 10-8-2 ATS (+1.41 units)
- 8-8 ML (+1.05 units)
- 5-11 player props (-6.6 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
