Rockets vs Grizzlies Expert Picks & Odds for Summer League Semis

• The Grizzlies are 5.5-point favorites over the Rockets in NBA Summer League action tonight
• Memphis is +63 this summer with 3rd overall pick Cameron Boozer on the floor
• Check out the Rockets vs Grizzlies expert picks and odds for the Summer League Semis, below

Fun fact. The winner of the NBA Summer League Tournament in Las Vegas receives championship rings. Are they as prestigious as the ones you get for winning the NBA Finals? No, however with hardware in addition to jobs to play for, there will be no lack of motivation in the Rockets vs Grizzlies semifinal clash tonight.

Online sportsbooks are siding with Memphis as 5.5-point favorites ahead of the matchup, and I think there’s a strong argument to make that the line isn’t nearly high enough.

Tipoff is set for 6:30pm ET from the Thomas & Mack Center, in Las Vegas, NV, with Amazon Prime Video and NBA TV Canada providing the broadcast coverage.

Keep reading for my favorite Rockets vs Grizzlies expert picks and odds for the Summer League semis, below.

Rockets vs Grizzlies Expert Picks for Summer League Semis

• Grizzlies -3.5 (56¢ at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

HOU vs MEM Pick

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Kalshi

Grizzlies -3.5

56%

Predict

My favorite bet tonight is Memphis against the spread, and if you have access to prediction markets, I suggest you visit them. Kalshi is trading the Grizzlies at 56-cents to cover 3.5 points (-127), while commercial sportsbooks have pegged the line 1 to 2 points higher depending on where you look.

While both teams enter play sporting 3-1 record, Memphis boasts the superior average margin of victory at +11.5 points. That’s the second best mark in Vegas so far, behind only the Lakers, and online sportsbooks have also pegged the Grizzlies as the favorites of the remaining four to win the Summer League crown.

A good chunk of Memphis’ success in the Desert so far can be attributed to the play of Cameron Boozer. The 3rd overall pick and top NBA Rookie of the Year odds contender has been a revelation, averaging 20 points, 7 boards and 3 assists per outing, shooting 52% from the field and 39% from three.

There hasn’t been this much promise in Memphis since the arrival of Ja Morant, and coincidentally the Grizzlies won the Summer League title a month after he was drafted. As long as Boozer remains on the floor Memphis will be tough to beat, as they boast an insane +63 point differential in the minutes he’s played, and he’s fresh off a 24 point performance in a complete destruction of the Hawks last time out.

While Boozer has been exceptional so far, he’s not the only reason to want to back the Grizzlies in this spot. Memphis has more roster stability and continuity than Houston, and they boast a massive advantage in the interior.

The Grizzlies are huge in the frontcourt, with Taylor Hendricks supporting Boozer. Hendricks is an excellent rim protector and rebounder, and also chips in 9 points per game.

Memphis is also strong along the wings and in the backcourt thanks to Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Cedric Coward and Javon Small. They’ve helped the Grizzlies average well over 90 points per game in Vegas, and back-to-back 20+ point victories.

The Grizzlies have also been one of the better defenses so far in the tournament, which presents a problem for the Rockets. Houston is relying heavily on isolation scoring, and their half court offense has sputtered against physical defenses. If Memphis can get aggressive and force players like Isaiah Crawford and Tristen Newton off their spot, the Rockets don’t have the playmaking to generate enough open looks to keep pace.

Rockets vs Grizzlies Odds for Summer League Semis

As mentioned, the best place to bet Memphis against the spread is over at Kalshi, who are offering the superior price. Total-wise, the prediction market has the over/under set at 184.5, which is a point lower than commercial sportsbooks like Bet365. If you expect the Grizzlies defense to shut down the Rockets like I do, that extra point of value is something you need to take advantage of.