Upcoming Match-ups

Square Money Firmly on Raptors in Game 6 of NBA Finals; Sharps Backing Warriors, Though

Nick Nurse with his hands in the air
Nick Nurse's timeout late in Game 5 cost many bettors money after Toronto went cold and gave the game away. Photo from @ForTheWin (Twitter)
  • Game 6 of the NBA Finals goes tonight (June 13) at 9pm ET
  • The Warriors opened as 3-point favorites at home
  • The line remains at GS -3 in spite of 72% of the money being on Toronto to cover the spread

The Golden State Warriors survived Game 5 in Toronto, getting the first of three straight wins they need to claim their third consecutive NBA Championship.

As they return home for Game 6, they’ll have to get the second of three wins without Kevin Durant in the lineup, who returned from his month-long absence only to re-injure himself early in Game 5.

Online sports betting sites, specifically Bookmaker, still opened with Golden State listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Game 6. Bettors quickly pounced on Toronto +3.5. On Wednesday, Bookmaker reported that 84.5% of the ATS money they had taken was on the Raptors, with one $100K wager taken.

The result was a full-point swing in favor of Toronto, but that’s when the Warriors bettors showed up, and many of them are sharp.

Raptors vs Warriors Game 6 Money Percentages

Team Spread at Bookmaker Percent of Money Wagered at Bookmaker
Toronto Raptors +3 (-110) 72%
Golden State Warriors -3 (-110) 28%

*Odds as of 5:45pm ET on June 13

The Raptors are still seeing 72% of the total ATS money that has come in, but we’ve got a bit of a Pros vs Joes situation, according to Bookmaker.

While the vast majority of the total money remains on Toronto to cover, 69.5% of the sharp money is on Golden State. This is why we’re still seeing the spread at GS -3.

Rick Malone, Bookmaker’s NBA Handicapper, knew the sharp money would show up on Golden State, comparing it to Game 4 (the last game in Golden State), where the Warriors were 4.5 or 5-point favorites in the same scenario – no Kevin Durant.

“The Warriors were 4.5 and 5-point favorites during the last game in Golden State, with Kevin Durant known to be out, and the sharp money was still on the Warriors. The square money – who won Game 4 – is still backing Toronto regardless of the number, and it presents the wiseguys with an opportunity. They were able to come in when the spread was GS -2.5 and lay big money, seeing the value of picking up an extra two points in a nearly identical situation,” said Malone.

[Sharp bettors] were able to come in when the spread was GS -2.5 and lay big money, seeing the value of picking up an extra two points in a nearly identical situation [to Game 4]

Malone also stated, “Our philosophy is to try and beat the sharp money. If the public wins, it’s just a short-term loan. The majority of line movements made are from the action of players who have a long term return on investment,”

The same squares vs sharps narrative is true for the moneyline at Bookmaker. Nearly 63% of the money is on the Raptors at +125, but 68% of the sharp money is on the Warriors -145.

GTBets has also reported the same pattern in their money percentages. On Wednesday, 90% of the money was on Toronto ATS at the online sports betting site. But that number has now come down to 56%.

For a full betting preview of Game 6, see Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 Odds & Betting Preview.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.