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Thunder vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions, Props & Latest Odds for Game 6

Ethan Stone

by Ethan Stone in NBA Basketball

Updated May 18, 2024 · 3:00 AM PDT

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Luka Doncic.
May 15, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) moves past Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the second half of game five of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder look to stave off elimination in Game 6 against the Dallas Mavericks, who return home after taking Game 5 in OKC.
  • The Mavericks could punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2022 Saturday night. OKC has not been to the WCF since 2016.
  • Below, see the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks predictions, odds, and player props for May 18.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks face off in Game 6 Saturday evening, with Dallas looking to move on to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2022.

The Mavericks, despite starting without home court advantage, have won 3 of the last 4 and been able to score almost at will. PJ Washington has had a strong series in aiding Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has perhaps been the most consistent player for either team as we enter crunch time.

Keep reading to see our predictions, the latest odds and latest player props for Saturday’s pivotal Game 6.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction

Oklahoma City may be the 1-seed in the west, but Dallas has absolutely been the better team this series. It feels like the turning point was Game 4 around the middle of the 3rd quarter, when OKC had a 10-point lead and failed to protect it, ending in a 105-101 loss in Dallas.

Sure, OKC won the next game, but now the series heads back to Dallas with the Thunder on the brink of elimination.

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The same OKC team that averages well over 110 points per game has struggled to show up in the past few games. Keep in mind that OKC is 8-8 ATS as away underdogs, while Dallas is 18-15 as a home favorite and 38-20 as the favorite in general.

The way I see it, this is a OKC team that has struggled to control the pace all series coming into a hostile environment following a loss where they failed to score 95. Short of someone other than SGA going for 30, this feels like the end of the line for the Thunder’s best odds at reaching the WCF since 2016.

OKC vs DAL Game 6 pick: DAL -3.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
OKC Thunder +3.5 (-110) +140 O 208.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -3.5 (-110) -170 U 208.5 (-110)

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As mentioned earlier and as you can see above, Dallas is a -3.5 home favorite and -170 to advance to the Western Conference Finals Saturday night. The Thunder are given a baseline -110 odds of keeping the game within a possession.

The over/under total for this game is set at 208.5, which means the last 3 contests in this series would have failed to hit the over. Neither team has eclipsed 105 points in the past 3 games, odd for teams that both sit within the top 10 in points per game this season.

OKC vs DAL Star Player Props for Game 6

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Luka Doncic (DAL) 28.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 10.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 9.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140)
Kyrie Irving (DAL) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 4.5 (Ov+114 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162)
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 8.5 (Ov -102| Un -118) OFF 1.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 31.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 7.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120) 6.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) 1.5 (Ov +160 | Un -192)
PJ Washington (DAL) 15.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 7.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) OFF 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)

Player Prop odds via DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Promo Code for more details. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest point total for Saturday’s matchup at 31.5, while Luka Doncic holds the highest rebound and assist props. A few players sit at 2.5 3-pointers including Doncic, Kyrie Irving and PJ Washington.

Washington is the interesting pick here in my opinion. The former Kentucky Wildcat has been insanely valuable for the Mavericks this series thanks to his 7 3-pointers made in Game 2 and 5 in games 3 and 4. He’s hit at least 2 shots from range in every game thus far and the Thunder have yet to seem like they want to guard him any time soon.

As stated earlier, SGA has been the most consistent player in this series for either team, so it’s doubtful he’ll go quietly in Dallas. He was one of the top playmakers in the league this year, so 6.5 honestly seems a little low.

Then of course there’s Luka, who has not really played to his potential this series and is still his usual threat to drop 50 on any given night. Let’s see how he performs in front of the home crowd in this spot.

Player prop picks:

  • PJ Washington over 2.5 3-pointers made (-120)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (+102)
  • Luke Doncic over 28.5 Points (-115)
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