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Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers Picks, Predictions & Odds (Feb. 26)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated Feb 26, 2024 · 8:30 AM PST

Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam smiling on the court
Feb 14, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) reacts after the Pacers defeat the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • Looking to stay out of the Play-In Tournament spots, the Indiana Pacers host the Toronto Raptors on Monday night
  • Toronto is just 9-20 on the road this season
  • See the Raptors vs Pacers odds, picks, and predictions for Feb. 26 as Pascal Siakam faces his former team for the second time

Riding a three-game win streak, the Indiana Pacers (33-25, 19-11 home, 31-25-3 ATS) look to make it four straight when they host the Toronto Raptors (21-36, 9-20 away, 27-29-1 ATS) on Monday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 7:10 pm ET.

The Raptors come in on a two-game winning streak of their own, but remain well under .500 for the season and an ugly 9-20 straight-up away from home. The Raptors vs Pacers odds list Indiana as a 6.5-point home favorite and -238 on the moneyline.

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Toronto Raptors +6.5 (-110) +195 Over 246.5 (-105)
Indiana Pacers -6.5 (-110) -238 Under 246.5 (-115)

Toronto comes back at +195 to win straight-up in Monday’s NBA odds, while the game total is at a massive 246.5, largely motivated by Indiana’s run-and-gun style of play.

 

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The Pacers currently own the #6 seed in the East in the NBA playoff bracket but are just one game up on the #7 Miami Heat and #8 Orlando Magic. If the postseason started today, Indiana would face the Milwaukee Bucks in a best-of-seven first-round series.

Toronto is four games out of the last berth in the Play-In Tournament after playing the role of seller at the deadline.

Pacers Starting to Roll With Revamped Lineup

The Pascal Siakam trade back in mid-January didn’t pay immediate dividends for the Pacers, who lost three in a row after the deal that sent Bruce Brown and Jordan Nwora to Toronto. But coach Rick Carlisle seems to be figuring out his team’s new configuration. The Pacers have won nine of 14 since, including three in a row.

Coming out of the All-Star break, Indiana dusted aside the league-worst Detroit Pistons (129-115) before an impressive 133-111 in over Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks, both at home.

YouTube video

Myles Turner (17.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG) had a huge night against the Mavs, dropping a game-high 33 points and eight rebounds. He was just one of seven Pacers in double-figures, a common occurrence for the league’s top offense in points per game (124.0) and second-ranked in O-Rating (120.6).

Indiana’s focus on offense is, oftentimes, at the exclusion of defense. Indiana sits just 25th in the NBA in D-Rating (118.8) and is allowing the third-most points in league (122.0).

Toronto Starts Strong After All-Star Break

The All-Star break was a welcome sight for the rebuilding Raps, who lost three straight and 15 of 19 before the hiatus. They have looked rejuvenated in their first two games back, though, crushing Brooklyn (121-93 home) on Thursday and then edging Atlanta (123-121 away) on Friday as 7.5-point underdogs.

Former Knick Immanuel Quickley had one of his best games in a Raptors uniform against the Hawks, scoring a team-high 24 points with seven rebounds and five assists. Scottie Barnes added 20 points and 10 dimes, the fourth time this season that Toronto’s lone All-Star has reached double-digit assists.

YouTube video

Toronto beat the Pacers in Indianapolis (132-131) on Nov. 22 prior to the trade that sent Siakam to Indiana. The teams also met in their final game before the All-Star break with the Pacers emerging with a 127-125 road win north of the border.

Barnes led Toronto with 29 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists, while Siakam burned his former team with 23 points to lead the Pacers, along with seven assists and five rebounds.

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers Prediction

Indiana’s offense can be scary-good, and their frenetic pace can make a 6.5-point spread look like a mole hill at times. But the Pacers struggle to rebound, and that’s been a major factor in both games against Toronto this season. The Raptors had a 46-31 edge on the boards in November (a 132-131 Toronto win) and a 56-39 edge ten days ago (a 127-125 Indiana win). The Raptors grabbed twice as many offensive rebounds as Indiana across the two games (28-14).

I am not confident betting Toronto pull an upset on the road, but I do expect this game to remain competitive throughout, just like the first two games between the teams this season.

 

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

  • 17-21 moneyline (+4.06 units)
  • 11-12-2 ATS (-0.87 units)
  • 7-12 player props (-6.82 units)
  • 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise 

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