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2019 Final Four Props: Bet Auburn to Start Fast

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 3:11 PM PDT

Auburn guard Bryce Brown
Bryce Brown and the Auburn Tigers have won the Race to 20 Points in three of four tournament games so far. Photo by @Holy_key1 (Twitter).
  • Michigan State is averaging 7.5 three-pointers per game
  • Auburn has been the first to 20 points in three of their four games
  • Under is 12-4 in Texas Tech’s last 12 non-conference games

The NCAA Tournament has come to a crescendo as the Final Four is upon us (Saturday, Apr. 6). Although the game lines have been out for a while, we now have various props to bet on for the two semifinals:

Let’s take a closer look at the best bets on the board.

Texas Tech vs Michigan State: Under 15.5 Three-Pointers

Number of Three-Pointers in TTU vs MSU Over/Under
Over 15.5 +115
Under 15.5 -135

Michigan State is not a team that typically thrives from three-point range. Although they hit 13 against LSU, they are averaging just 5.7 per game in their other three 2019 NCAA Tournament contests. In the regular season, this team made 8.3 threes per game, which was 96th in the country.

Now they’ll have to take on Texas Tech, a strong defensive team which is 10th in the country in three-point field- goal defense.

As for the Red Raiders, they are also not a team that hits a lot of threes. They’re averaging just 6.5 per game in the NCAA Tournament. Bet the under (15.5) on the number of made threes.

Auburn vs Virginia: Tigers Win Race to 20

First Team to 20 Points in Aub vs UVA Odds
Auburn +140
Virginia -160

Virginia has been a bit of a slow starter in the NCAA Tournament. As you might recall, they trailed No. 16 Gardner-Webb (28-14), No. 9 Oklahoma (13-9), No. 12 Oregon (18-13) and No. 3 Purdue (22-12).

They have been crisper coming out of the half.

Conversely, Auburn has started fast in March Madness. They have been the first team to 20 points in three of their first four contests. The only time they weren’t was against No. 2 Kentucky in the Elite Eight. There’s value on this streaky Auburn team at +140.

Bet Auburn in the Race to 20 prop.

Texas Tech vs Michigan State: Under 137.5 Alternate Total

Alternate Total Odds
Over 137.5 +170
Under 137.5 -210

It’s going to cost a little bit to invest in this (-210) but it’s comforting to have a little bit of wiggle room. We’ve seen how overtime can ruin a total in recent weeks.

The Red Raiders contest against Gonzaga did go over 137.5 as the two teams combined for 144 points  (75-69).

However, remember that Gonzaga was the No. 1 offense in the country, according to the KenPom ratings. Texas Tech had to play incredible defense to keep Gonzaga under 70 points.

The Red Raiders’ stellar defense worked much better on weaker foes as their other three games all went under 137.5.

As for Michigan State, they would have gone under this number twice and over twice, although the two overs would have been just barely (141 and 143).

Final Four Picks: Red Raiders Have Value as Underdogs (Again)
Read More

I’m expecting this to be a defensive slugfest. The under is 12-4 in Texas Tech’s last 12 non-conference games and that’s typically because they force their defensive style on their opponent. The opponent has to adjust to them. Michigan State is happy to grind it out, which is why under 137.5 is the play here.

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