2019 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds Ahead of Final Four: Winston & Guy Co-Favored

Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston celebrating.
Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston is the co-favorite to win the 2019 Final Four MOP award. Photo by Twitter user @JonKirklandESQ.
  • Cassius Winston, Kyle Guy are favored to win the MOP Award
  • Jared Harper is favored to win the award if Auburn wins the Championship
  • Jarrett Culver would be a shoe-in to win the award if Texas Tech wins it all

The 2019 NCAA Tournament Final Four will feature #5 Auburn vs #1 Virginia and #3 Texas Tech vs #2 Michigan State.

With a smaller field to work with, betting on the Most Outstanding Player Award seems far more reasonable now than it was at the beginning of the tournament.

Let’s handicap the field and see who is the best bet.

2019 Final Four Most Outstanding Player Odds

Player Final Four MOP Award Odds
Cassius Winston, MSU +250
Kyle Guy, UVA +250
Xavier Tillman, MSU +600
Jarrett Culver, TT +700
Jared Harper, Aub +1000
Bryce Brown, Aub +1200
De’Andre Hunter, UVA +1200
Mamadi Diakite, UVA +1200
David Moretti, TT +2000
Matt Mooney, TT +2000
Ty Jerome, UVA +2000

How To Bet The 2019 Final Four MOP Award

The main thing you want to think about here is which team has the best chance to win it all. The MOP-winner almost always comes from the winning team, so you have to evaluate who you believe will cut down the nets at the end of the tournament.

Once you’ve narrowed that down, then you can move onto picking a player from that team.

If You Like Michigan State, Winston Is The Headliner

Winston is the flavor of the moment as his performance was crucial in ousting No. 1 Duke. He scored 20 points in that game while adding 10 assists, but that’s not an aberration for him. He’s averaging 19.1 points per game in the tournament along with 7.8 assists, 2.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals.

Next up is a huge test against the top defensive team in the country, Texas Tech. However, if you look at the teams that beat Texas Tech this season, they all had good point guards, guys like Tre Jones (Duke), Nick Weiler-Babb (Iowa State), Kamau Stokes (Kansas State) and Makai Mason (Baylor).

Winston was obviously better value at +1000 earlier in the tournament, but if Michigan State wins it all, Winston wins the award.

Guy Co-Favorite But Hunter Is Better Value If You Like Virginia

It’s a bit surprising to see Guy listed as a co-favorite because he really hasn’t had a great tournament; he’s had one good game (maybe even just one good half). He scored 25 points against Purdue while collecting 10 rebounds and hitting 5/12 from three.

Before the Purdue game, Guy had a total of 22 points and was 3/26 from beyond the arc in the first three contests.  He’s the team’s leading scorer, but De’Andre Hunter has just as good a chance as Guy to win MOP.

Hunter has scored in double-digits in four straight games along with 4.5 rebounds and 1.3 threes.

Virginia will need Hunter to be great against either Texas Tech or Michigan State in the Championship Game. He’s the team’s best on-ball defender, which could sway voters in a title game that’s likely to be decided in the 60s.

At +1200, he is much better value than Guy, who is only at +250.

Culver The Bet If Texas Tech Wins It All

There’s really only one option if you think Texas Tech wins it all: Jarrett Culver. The soon-to-be NBA lottery pick is averaging 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 threes per game on the season.

He’s upped his scoring to 21.5 per game in the NCAA Tournament and he’s clearly the most valuable player on the team.

There’s really no way Texas Tech wins the title without major contributions from him, so if you think they win, he’s your bet.

Auburn’s Winner Depends On The Hot Hand

The Auburn Tigers have a number of players who have stepped up for them but the oddsmakers say it’s really down to their starting backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. They are the two leading scorers and the two most explosive weapons on the team.

Brown has been the better of the two as he’s been unconscious in the tournament, shooting 54.5% from the field and 47% from three.

Harper does more for the team than just score, though, as he’s averaging 6.5 assists and 4.5 free throws per game. They’re both reasonable options, which makes this a tough prop to bet if you like Auburn.

Who’s The Best Bet?

I believe that the winner of the tournament is going to come from the Texas Tech-Michigan State side of the Final Four. That means I’ll bet on Cassius Winston to win the MOP award and sprinkle a little bit on Culver too.

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