- Cassius Winston, Kyle Guy are favored to win the MOP Award
- Jared Harper is favored to win the award if Auburn wins the Championship
- Jarrett Culver would be a shoe-in to win the award if Texas Tech wins it all
With a smaller field to work with, betting on the Most Outstanding Player Award seems far more reasonable now than it was at the beginning of the tournament.
Let’s handicap the field and see who is the best bet.
2019 Final Four Most Outstanding Player Odds
|Player||Final Four MOP Award Odds|
|Cassius Winston, MSU||+250|
|Kyle Guy, UVA||+250|
|Xavier Tillman, MSU||+600|
|Jarrett Culver, TT||+700|
|Jared Harper, Aub||+1000|
|Bryce Brown, Aub||+1200|
|De’Andre Hunter, UVA||+1200|
|Mamadi Diakite, UVA||+1200|
|David Moretti, TT||+2000|
|Matt Mooney, TT||+2000|
|Ty Jerome, UVA||+2000|
How To Bet The 2019 Final Four MOP Award
The main thing you want to think about here is which team has the best chance to win it all. The MOP-winner almost always comes from the winning team, so you have to evaluate who you believe will cut down the nets at the end of the tournament.
Once you’ve narrowed that down, then you can move onto picking a player from that team.
If You Like Michigan State, Winston Is The Headliner
Winston is the flavor of the moment as his performance was crucial in ousting No. 1 Duke. He scored 20 points in that game while adding 10 assists, but that’s not an aberration for him. He’s averaging 19.1 points per game in the tournament along with 7.8 assists, 2.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals.
Cassius Winston = the ultimate leader
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) March 31, 2019
Next up is a huge test against the top defensive team in the country, Texas Tech. However, if you look at the teams that beat Texas Tech this season, they all had good point guards, guys like Tre Jones (Duke), Nick Weiler-Babb (Iowa State), Kamau Stokes (Kansas State) and Makai Mason (Baylor).
Winston was obviously better value at +1000 earlier in the tournament, but if Michigan State wins it all, Winston wins the award.
Guy Co-Favorite But Hunter Is Better Value If You Like Virginia
It’s a bit surprising to see Guy listed as a co-favorite because he really hasn’t had a great tournament; he’s had one good game (maybe even just one good half). He scored 25 points against Purdue while collecting 10 rebounds and hitting 5/12 from three.
Some serious sauce from Kyle Guy. pic.twitter.com/krMGKTYMJP
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 25, 2019
Before the Purdue game, Guy had a total of 22 points and was 3/26 from beyond the arc in the first three contests. He’s the team’s leading scorer, but De’Andre Hunter has just as good a chance as Guy to win MOP.
Hunter has scored in double-digits in four straight games along with 4.5 rebounds and 1.3 threes.
Virginia will need Hunter to be great against either Texas Tech or Michigan State in the Championship Game. He’s the team’s best on-ball defender, which could sway voters in a title game that’s likely to be decided in the 60s.
At +1200, he is much better value than Guy, who is only at +250.
Culver The Bet If Texas Tech Wins It All
There’s really only one option if you think Texas Tech wins it all: Jarrett Culver. The soon-to-be NBA lottery pick is averaging 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 threes per game on the season.
He’s upped his scoring to 21.5 per game in the NCAA Tournament and he’s clearly the most valuable player on the team.
Jarrett Culver is the 2nd-best prospect in this draft. pic.twitter.com/EY3NdYi4QO
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) March 25, 2019
There’s really no way Texas Tech wins the title without major contributions from him, so if you think they win, he’s your bet.
Auburn’s Winner Depends On The Hot Hand
The Auburn Tigers have a number of players who have stepped up for them but the oddsmakers say it’s really down to their starting backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. They are the two leading scorers and the two most explosive weapons on the team.
Brown has been the better of the two as he’s been unconscious in the tournament, shooting 54.5% from the field and 47% from three.
Bryce Brown is EVERYWHERE for Auburn right now
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 31, 2019
Harper does more for the team than just score, though, as he’s averaging 6.5 assists and 4.5 free throws per game. They’re both reasonable options, which makes this a tough prop to bet if you like Auburn.
Who’s The Best Bet?
I believe that the winner of the tournament is going to come from the Texas Tech-Michigan State side of the Final Four. That means I’ll bet on Cassius Winston to win the MOP award and sprinkle a little bit on Culver too.
SBD’s Final Four Coverage
- 2019 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds Ahead of Final Four: Winston & Guy Co-Favored
- #5 Auburn vs #1 Virginia game preview
- #3 Texas Tech vs #2 Michigan State game preview
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