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#2 Tennessee vs #1 Purdue Odds, Prediction & Picks (Mar. 31)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2024 · 3:54 PM PDT

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) high-fives Purdue Boilermakers guard Myles Colvin (5) during NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament game against the Utah State Aggies, Sunday, March 24, 2024, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
  • The #2 Tennessee Vols and #1 Purdue Boilermakers meet in the 2024 Elite Eight on Sunday, March 31
  • The latest Elite Eight odds favor the Boilermakers by a slim margin in Michigan
  • Read below for Tennessee vs Purdue odds, prediction and picks for this Elite Eight showdown

The Tennessee Volunteers (27-8) will face off against the Purdue Boilermakers (32-4) in an Elite Eight matchup on Sunday, March 31, 2024 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET with the game televised on CBS.

Purdue is currently a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 147.5 points. This betting line has moved towards Matt Painter’s team after opening with the Boilermakers as shorter -2 favorites.

Let’s further examine the Tennessee vs Purdue odds as we make our prediction for this Elite Eight showdown.

Tennessee vs Purdue Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tennessee +3.5 (-115) +135 Over 147.5 (-110)
Purdue -3.5 (-105) -160 Under 147.5 (-110)

In the Tennessee vs Purdue odds, the Boilermakers are narrow -160 favorites on the moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 61.5%.

These two teams met earlier this season in the Maui Invitational with Purdue prevailing 71-67. It was a defensive slugfest, with both teams shooting under 40% from the field and 30% from deep.

 

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Odds as of March 30, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on Tennessee vs Purdue in the Elite Eight.

Tennessee Betting Trends

Tennessee advanced to the Elite Eight by defeating Creighton 82-75 in their Sweet Sixteen matchup. The Volunteers trailed 35-34 at halftime but erupted for 48 second-half points to pull away for the victory. Tennessee shot 41.8% from the field and made 11 three-pointers in the win.

Previously, the Vols beat Texas 62-58 in the Round of 32 and St. Peter’s 83-49 in the first round. On the season, Tennessee is averaging 79.1 points, 39.1 rebounds and 16.7 assists per game, while allowing 67.3 points per contest.

The Volunteers are led by guard Dalton Knecht who is putting up 21.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. As a team, Tennessee is shooting 44.4% from the field, 74.9% from the free throw line and 34.2% from three-point range.

However, the Vols could be without starting guard Santiago Vescovi who missed the Creighton game with an illness and is questionable to play against Purdue.

While the Vols have some offensive playmakers, Tennessee’s defense is their calling card. The Volunteers are 3rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Their perimeter defenders can make life difficult for Purdue’s guards like Loyer and Braden Smith.

Purdue Betting Analysis

Purdue punched their ticket to the Elite Eight with an impressive 80-68 victory over Gonzaga. The Boilermakers led 40-36 at the half and pulled away after the break, shooting a scorching 57.1% from the field while winning the rebounding battle by 7.

Purdue steamrolled their first two opponents, crushing Utah State 106-67 and Grambling 78-50. The Boilermakers are averaging 83.8 points, 40.6 rebounds and 19 assists per game this season, while giving up 69.4 points per contest.

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Purdue’s offense revolves around 7’4″ center Zach Edey who is nearly averaging a double-double with 24.6 points and 12.1 rebounds to go along with 2.1 assists and 2.2 blocks per game. Edey is shooting 62.4% from the field, including 82.1% at the rim.

The Boilermakers are an elite shooting team, making 48.8% of their field goals, 72.1% of their free throws and 40.8% of their three-pointers.

Purdue’s biggest strength is their size and interior scoring prowess with Edey. The Boilermakers rank 2nd nationally in opponent rebounds per game (29.2) and 65th in opponent field goal percentage (41.9%).

Tennessee vs Purdue Prediction

Purdue is the more talented and complete team, as exemplified by the spread for this game. They have Edey, the best player on the floor, and more scoring options to surround him with. The Boilermakers are on a mission to reach their first Final Four under coach Matt Painter and shed their label as March underachievers.

Purdue’s experience in close games, such as its Maui win over Tennessee and recent victories against Marquette and Gonzaga, should serve them well if this is a tight contest down the stretch. The Boilermakers are 7-1 this season in games decided by five points or less.

The Vols will put up a fight with their tough defense and gritty style of play. But unless they shoot significantly better from the field and from three than they did in the first meeting, it’s hard to see them generating enough offense to win.

Expect another hard-fought, physical battle, but for Purdue to make just enough plays to cover the 3.5-point spread. The under also looks appealing given the defensive nature of the matchup.

TEN vs PUR Picks

  • Purdue -3.5 (-105)
  • Under 147.5 (-110)
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