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Oregon’s Justin Herbert 2019 Props Predict at Least 8 Interceptions

Will Justin Herbert excel in his final season in Eugene? Photo from @NatalieNClark (Twitter)
  • You can wager on Justin Herbert’s 2019 season total props in sportsbooks
  • Herbert is projected to throw for more yards and touchdowns than Trevor Lawrence, but less than Tua Tagovailoa
  • What’s the best bet for each prop

Justin Herbert is one of the top quarterback prospects in the country, and his 2019 season total props reflect that. He’s in the conversation to go first overall in next year’s draft, and is expected to throw for more touchdowns and yards than Heisman co-favorite Trevor Lawrence.

Justin Herbert Total Passing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 3,000 Passing Yards -115
Under 3,000 Passing Yards -115

*All odds taken 08/22/19

Herbert exceeded 3,000 passing yards in 12 regular season games last season, and his passing totals should be bolstered in 2019 by the return of 10 Oregon starters on offense. He’ll need to average just over 250 yards per game to hit the over, a feat he accomplished in 75% of his starts in 2018.

He has the eighth shortest average 2019 Heisman odds, and if he has serious ambitions to win the award he’ll need to push the ball downfield all season. Each of the past seven Heisman winning quarterbacks have passed for at least 3,500 yards, and with the talent he has at his disposal, Herbert is definitely a threat to eclipse that number as well.

Pick: Over 3,000 Passing Yards (-115)

Justin Herbert Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 28.5 TD Passes -115
Under 28.5 TD Passes -115

*All odds taken 08/22/19

Herbert has the second highest TD pass projection among the player props listed in sportsbooks, behind only Tua Tagovailoa. He’s averaged 2.4 touchdown passes per game during his three-year career at Oregon, and if he simply maintains that average he’ll  squeak over his projection in 2019.

He didn’t post the same type of off the chart touchdown totals in high school as Lawrence, but he did rack up 36 scores in his senior year. His Pro Football Focus grade is among the best at the position over the past two seasons, and if he can maintain that level of play, he should excel in his senior year.

Pick: Over 28.5 TD Passes (-115)

Justin Herbert Total Rushing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 150 Rushing Yards -115
Under 150 Rushing Yards -115

*All odds taken 08/22/19

Herbert has been extremely inefficient as a runner at Oregon despite plenty of opportunity. He averaged just 2.3 yards per attempt in 2018 and that number is actually misleading thanks to a 37 yard scamper against Bowling Green. If you remove that outlier, he averaged just 1.84 yards per carry, and at that rate it would take much more rushing volume than he’s likely to receive this season to hit the over.

Pick: Under 150 Rushing Yards (-115)

Justin Herbert Total Interceptions in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 8.5 Interceptions -115
Under 8.5 Interceptions -115

*All odds taken 08/22/19

Herbert was picked off eight times 2018, which was by far the most interceptions he’s thrown during his time at Oregon. A major reason for that was his sub-par completion percentage, which dipped below 60%, but if he can regress back to the type of accuracy he showed in 2016 and 2017, his INT rate should come way down.

He’s never had a turnover problem dating back to high school where he was picked off just three times during his entire career, and even if he exceeds 400 pass attempts in 2019, his pedigree suggests that 8.5 interceptions is too high of a line.

Pick: Under 8.5 Interceptions (-115)

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