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Kansas State vs TCU Odds, Picks & Prediction for Big 12 Championship Game

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Football

Nov 30, 2022 · 10:06 AM PST

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan hands off to running back Kendre Miller
Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) hands off to running back Kendre Miller (33) during the second quarter against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
  • TCU is a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday
  • The Horned Frogs beat the Wildcats 38-28 in the regular season
  • A look at the Kansas State vs TCU matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

#3 TCU looks to gain a berth in the College Football Playoff when it plays #10 Kansas State at 12 p.m. ET Saturday in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

TCU (12-0) could still make the four-team field with a loss, but a victory would certainly secure a spot for the Horned Frogs. By beating Iowa State 62-14 last week, TCU completed its first unbeaten regular season since 2010.

Kansas State (9-3) is on a three-game winning streak and coming off a 47-27 victory over Kansas.

ABC will televise the game.

Kansas State vs TCU Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kansas State +115 +2.5 (-110) Over 62 (-110)
TCU -135 -2.5 (-110) Under 62 (-110)

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TCU is a 2.5-point favorite and a -135 choice on the moneyline in the college football odds, giving the Horned Frogs a 57.45% implied win probability. TCU has +1000 national championship odds.

Kansas State Betting Outlook

Kansas State’s offense has been outstanding late in the season, even though star quarterback Adrian Martinez has missed the last three games with a league injury.

The Wildcats have scored at least 47 points in three of their last five games. They are averaging 40.2 in that span.

Deuce Vaughn led the Wildcats in their win over Kansas. He rushed for 147 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries and caught two passes for 82 yards.

For the season, Vaughn’s 1,295 yards rank third in the Big 12. He has carried 245 times and scored seven touchdowns. Vaughn is a +20000 longshot in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Howard has completed 62.9% of his 132 passes for 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He was 11 of 21 for 213 yards and two scores last week.

Malik Knowles had two touchdown runs against Kansas. He is more noted for being Kansas State’s top receiver with 46 catches for 679 yards and two TDs.

Points are tough to come by against the Wildcats. They are giving up just 19.4 points a game, the 15th-best mark in the nation.

Kansas State is 8-3-1 against the spread this season.

TCU Betting Outlook

Max Duggan lost his starting job in training camp. However, the quarterback has been sensational since getting it back.

His 3,070 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes led the conference. He has completed two-thirds of his passes and been intercepted just three times in 332 attempts.

Duggan was efficient in the rout of Iowa State. He completed 17 of 24 passes for 212 yards and three touchdowns as TCU scored at least 40 points for the sixth time in 12 games this season.

Kendre Miller had two touchdowns runs and 72 yards in 12 attempts.

Miller raised his season totals to 1,260 yards and 16 TDs on 199 carries. He is second in the Big 12 in rushing TDs and fourth in rushing yards, and his streak of 13 straight games with a rushing touchdown is the longest active one in the FBS.

Quentin Johnson, TCU’s leading receiver, sat out last week’s game with an ankle injury but is expected to play. He has 49 receptions for 764 yards and five scores.

Johnson is third in the conference in receiving yardage. He is a key component to an offense that is fourth in the country in scoring (41.3) and 16th in total yardage (473.3).

TCU scored its first two defensive touchdowns of the season against Iowa State on interception returns from safety Millard Bradford and cornerback Josh Newton.

The Horned Frogs are 9-2-1 ATS.

Kansas State vs TCU Prediction

TCU rallied from a 28-10 deficit in the second quarter to beat Kansas State 38-28 on Oct. 22, ending the Wildcats’ three-game winning streak in the series. Duggan threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns and Miller had 153 yards rushing and two TDs.

Kansas State is playing as well as any team in the country now. Look for the Wildcats to get revenge in this rematch.

Pick: Kansas State ML (+115)

 

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