Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Predictions & Odds – Egg Bowl 2024

• We’ve made our Mississippi State vs Ole Miss prediction for the Egg Bowl on Black Friday
• The #14 Rebels are massive 26.5-point home favorites against the struggling Bulldogs
• Read below for Mississippi State vs Ole Miss predictions, odds and best bet for the rivalry game

The Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Oxford to face the #14 Ole Miss Rebels in the 121st edition of the Egg Bowl on Black Friday. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with the game broadcast nationally on ABC.

The Rebels open as hefty 26.5-point favorites with the over/under total set at 61.5 points. However, has shifted the money towards the underdog, and we happen to agree with the movement.

Here is our Mississippi State vs Ole Miss prediction for Friday’s Egg Bowl.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds 2024

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 25, 2024

Ole Miss enters as a massive 26.5-point favorite with an implied 97.5% probability of winning outright, according to the moneyline odds.

The lofty Egg Bowl spread is justified by the Rebels’ 8-3 record compared to the Bulldogs’ dismal 2-9 mark. However, rivalry games often defy expectations.

The 61.5-point over/under is on the higher end for these teams. It implies a likely score along the lines of Ole Miss 44, Mississippi State 17. While the Rebels boast an explosive offense, their games have hit the under in 9 of 11 contests this season.

Bulldogs Betting Analysis

It’s been a season to forget for first-year head coach Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are just 2-9 overall and winless in SEC play at 0-7. Injuries have plagued the squad, most notably losing starting QB Blake Shapen to a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4.

Freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes since taking over, throwing for 1,606 yards and 10 touchdowns. His top target is Kevin Coleman Jr. who has 68 catches for 814 yards. The ground game relies on the duo of Davon Booth (721 yards) and Johnnie Daniels.

.@mike3k_ ➡️ @_jmo4 for a Bulldog Touchdown!#SHOWTIME | #HailState pic.twitter.com/RzqaKOhJqj

— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) November 23, 2024

Defensively, Mississippi State allows a concerning 461.8 yards per game (127th nationally). They especially struggle defending the pass, ranking dead last in the SEC while allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Creating pressure has also been an issue, which doesn’t bode well against an Ole Miss offensive line that leads the nation in sack rate.

The Bulldogs’ bright spot has been their success as double-digit underdogs, covering the spread in 4 of 5 such games this year. That includes admirable showings in road losses to Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee. They’ll need to summon that same underdog magic to keep this one competitive.

Rebels Betting Analysis

At 8-3 overall and 4-3 in SEC play, it’s been a strong but somewhat disappointing year for Ole Miss. The Rebels were squarely in the CFP picture before stumbling in The Swamp last week, losing 24-17 to Florida and likely dashing their playoff aspirations.

Lane Kiffin’s squad is powered by arguably the nation’s most explosive offense. Ole Miss averages 38.5 points and 491 yards per game, both top-10 marks nationally. QB Jaxson Dart has thrown for 3,732 yards and 24 TDs, spreading the wealth to a deep receiving corps led by Tre Harris (60 catches, 1,030 yards).

Jaxson Dart breakout season continues. Quitest breakout in all of CFB this year. He without question deserves to be in the 1st round conversation. pic.twitter.com/6YhuE08Ntf

— Mike (@MikeForcella) November 23, 2024

The run game took a hit with leading rusher Henry Parrish Jr. out for the season, but a stable of backs paced by Ulysses Bentley IV still churn out over 200 yards per game. Injuries are a mounting concern though, with star WR Tre Harris and several offensive linemen questionable for the Egg Bowl.

Defensively, the Rebels are elite. They lead the country with 4.5 sacks per game and allow just 13.9 points on average. The pass rush duo of Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen (10.5 sacks each) will look to feast on a porous Mississippi State offensive line.

Ole Miss is 3-2 ATS at home this year but just 1-3 as a double-digit favorite. After last week’s soul-crushing loss, it’s fair to wonder about the Rebels’ emotional readiness and motivation in a game they’re expected to dominate.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Prediction

In a vacuum, Ole Miss should roll. They have the better roster, an overwhelming talent advantage, and the motivation to erase last week’s disappointing defeat. But strange things happen in rivalry games, and the Egg Bowl has a history of upsets and unpredictable outcomes.

The spread is simply too high. Combined with the Rebels’ deflating loss to Florida, key injuries on offense, and the general weirdness of rivalry games, there are too many factors pointing to a closer-than-expected contest.

Egg Bowl tomorrow 🏆#BeatState | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/N4GEYuGaYZ

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 28, 2024

Mississippi State has consistently played top competition tough, even in losing efforts. While an outright win is unlikely, the Bulldogs have shown they can rise to the occasion as huge underdogs against superior opponents.

My official best bet is Mississippi State +26.5. The Bulldogs have covered in 4 of 5 games as double-digit dogs this season, and their performances against Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee show they’re better than their record suggests.

Weird things tend to happen in rivalry games, and this spread is simply too high given the circumstances. The Rebels are coming off a devastating loss and battling key injuries that could limit their offensive firepower. I’ll back the Bulldogs to keep it within four touchdowns in this spot.

EGG Bowl Pick 2024:

• Mississippi State +26.5