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Notre Dame Creates a Power 5 Problem in National Championship Odds

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in College Football

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 10:49 AM PDT

Notre Dame Band
Slot Notre Dame into your Playoff projection, and things get weird in a hurry. Photo by Tedmosbey [CC License].
  • Notre Dame has a great chance of finishing the season undefeated
  • If they do, you have to figure the Fighting Irish will make the Playoff
  • That creates something of a problem for the committee and bettors alike

Notre Dame handled Northwestern easily this weekend, and is looking at three very manageable games left on the schedule. Should they go undefeated, the Playoff Committee will have some tough choices to make, and that makes life difficult for bettors.

You can see the full odds over at the National Championship Odds Tracker.

2019 College Football Playoff Odds

Team Odds
Alabama -265
Clemson +500
Notre Dame +550
Michigan +650
Ohio State +2000

The Power 5’s Playoff Problem

Ever since the four-team College Football Playoff format was announced, there’s been one niggling question: with five “power” conferences, and four playoff spots, who gets left out?

Some years this isn’t really a problem. The Big 12 got left out of the first Playoff because they couldn’t decide on a champion, and named Oklahoma and TCU “co-champions”. The PAC-12 got left out the next year because the best they could muster was a two-loss Stanford. Sometimes things just work out.

Some years this creates a huge problem. When the Big 10 champions Ohio State got left out for Not Even Division Champions Alabama last year, there was an uproar. Some fans felt this was extremely disrespectful to Ohio State and the Big 10, and felt strongly that a two-loss conference champion should always be included over a one-loss alternate.*

*Unless we’re talking about 2016 Penn State, in which case…

How Notre Dame Can Ruin Everything

An important thing to know about college football is that if Notre Dame is undefeated at the end of the season they’ll be included in whatever Playoff or national championship game system is currently relevant, no matter what. The Fighting Irish are a unique, national brand, and one that old people and TV executives love. If the people who control the sport can put Notre Dame in, they always will.

With Notre Dame in, that only leaves three spots for the Power 5 conferences. This makes things very complicated in 2018, because most of those spots are (almost) already spoken for. Clemson will almost certainly finish the season as undefeated ACC Champions. The winner of the SEC Championship game (between Alabama and Georgia) is a shoe-in. What does the Playoff committee do with that final spot?

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They could give it the Big 12 Champion, likely an Oklahoma or West Virginia with just one loss, or the Big 10 Champion, likely either Michigan or Ohio State. Both are good options, but both leave a little to be desired. Oklahoma lost a weird game to Texas and fired the Stoops brother they had in charge of the defense. Michigan already lost to Notre Dame and everyone hates a rematch. Ohio State lost to Purdue. West Virginia feels like its held together by dental floss and duct tape, and also lost to Iowa State. The PAC-12’s remaining hope is Washington State, and that can’t last long.

In what has been described as a “nightmare scenario,” they could give it to the loser of the SEC Championship game, especially if that loser is 12-1 Alabama.

Or, in what has been described as a “nightmare scenario,” they could give it to the loser of the SEC Championship game, especially if that loser is 12-1 Alabama. Doing so would leave out three Power 5 conferences, not to mention a potentially undefeated UCF. It would also infuriate the same people that protested the Big 10’s exclusion last year, particularly when this fourth-ranked team wins the Playoff.

The Problem for Bettors

This creates a huge problem for bettors, because projecting the College Football Playoff is now almost impossible. It will come down to what the Playoff Committee cares about, and the Playoff Committee has been fickle in the past.

Will they respect conference championships? Will they go with the teams they feel are clearly better? Which teams do they think are clearly better? Is there any way for Alabama to get left out?

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