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Oregon State (2.5), Rutgers (3.0), UConn (2.5) Have the Lowest Win Totals in the Country; Will Any Hit the Over?

Oregon State's Reser Stadium
Fans at Reser Stadium won't have much to cheer for in 2019, if the Oregon State win total proves prescient. Photo by Gregkeene (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • Oregon State, Rutgers and UConn have the lowest win totals in the country
  • The three programs combined to win just four games in 2018
  • Is there value betting the over on any of their win totals this season?

In the college football world, there are the haves and the have-nots. While first-class programs like Clemson and Alabama expect to win double-digit games every season, schools like Oregon State, Rutgers and UConn would be ecstatic with have half as many victories.

Those three programs combined to win just four games last season, and the outlook for the upcoming season looks bleak based on their 2019 win totals.

Lowest 2019 NCAAF Win Totals

Team Bovada Win Total and Odds BetOnline Win Total and Odds MyBookie Win Total and Odds
Oregon State 2.5 (-145o/+115u) 2.5 (-120o/+100u) TBD
Rutgers 3.0 (-120o/-110u) 2.5 (-170o/+150u) TBD
UConn 2.5 (EVENo/-130u) 2.5 (-115o/-105u) 2.5 (-120o/-110u)

*All odds taken August 8, 2019.

Indeed, the Beavers, Scarlet Knights, and Huskies have the three lowest 2019 college football win totals and just this week Oregon State was ranked the worst Power 5 team in the country by the Sporting News.

Bet Under on the Beavers

Oregon State won just two games in 2018, and they’ll be lucky to reach that number again this season. The Beavers have the eighth-toughest schedule in the nation according to ESPN’s FPI, and they’re expected to be underdogs in every game but one.

Oregon State Record Last Four Seasons

Year Wins Losses Points Per Game Points Allowed Per Game
2018 2 10 26.1 45.7
2017 1 11 20.7 43.0
2016 4 8 26.2 30.5
2015 2 10 19.0 37.0

According to Bill Connelly’s S&P ratings, they have a greater than 25% win probability in just two games and they’ve done little to improve a historically bad defense. Nearly every starter from the 2018 team that surrendered 45.7 points per game is returning and they failed to add any dynamic playmakers.

They ranked 130th in rush defense efficiency and 126th in pass defense efficiency last season and allowed 11.6 more points than any other team in their conference. The offense is expected to improve, but with a defense this bad and a schedule this tough, there’s no reason not to bet the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 at BetOnline)

Stay Clear of the Scarlet Knights

Twice in the last three years, Rutgers has failed to win three games. If it weren’t for a favorable schedule, they’d be a lock to go under their projected win total in 2019.

The Scarlet Knights will square off against UMass and Liberty this season, two of the lowest-rated programs in college football, and also have winnable games versus Illinois and Boston College.

Rutgers should be able to handle UMass and perhaps Liberty, as well, but they’re expected to be underdogs to both Illinois and Boston College. They’ve done little to improve an offense that averaged 13.5 points last season, ranking 111th in returning production and 59th in recruiting.

Their quality of competition should allow them to eclipse 2.5 wins (at BetOnline) but I don’t have enough confidence to wager on it.

Pick: Stay Away

Bet Under on UConn

The Huskies are the second-lowest rated team in the S&P ratings and the only game they’re expected to be favored in all season is the season opener versus Wagner, an FCS team.

UConn’s defense profiles to be just as putrid as the unit that allowed over 50 points per game last season and their offense is projected to rank in the bottom-15 in the country. Aside from what looks like a lay-up against Wagner, the Huskies don’t have a win probability above 37% in any other game all season.

They could potentially upset one of UMass, Navy or East Carolina, but it seems unlikely they’ll win at two of those games to reach their over.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-105 at BetOnline)

 

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