Thursday Night College Football Player Props: Best Bets for Utah-Florida & Nebraska-Minnesota

• College football player props are available for the two marquee games on Thursday, August 31st
• QB Graham Mertz makes his Florida debut against Utah, while Gophers RB Sean Tyler suits up against Nebraska
• Read below for our top college football player props for Florida vs Utah and Nebraska vs Minnesota

The 2023 college football season is officially upon us, and the first Thursday night of the season features two marquee games across ESPN & FOX. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of player props for both Florida vs Utah and Nebraska vs Minnesota.

While none of these four teams are considered national title contenders, there are still plenty of intriguing storylines. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz makes his first start for the Gators, while Sean Tyler takes the field for the first time as a Gopher against Matt Rhule’s Nebraska.

Let’s dive into the Thursday night college football player props and identify our best value picks across the two matchups.

Utah vs Florida Player Props

In the Utah vs Florida player props, Gators quarterback Graham Mertz is the only quarterback listed on the board with a passing yards over/under of 183.5 points. Utah’s quarterback has yet to be confirmed.

All odds as of August 31st, 2023 at DraftKings Sportsbook & FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting apps for college football player props. 

Pick #1: Graham Mertz Over 0.5 Interceptions

There has been plenty of speculation about what type of performance we will see from Florida QB Graham Mertz on Thursday night following an inconsistent stint at the University of Wisconsin. We don’t doubt he will find some success with the Gators, but his accuracy in Week 1 might be an issue.

Mertz concluded a three-year stint at Wisconsin with a 59.5% complete percentage and 38 touchdowns to go with 26 interceptions. He’ll have his work cut out for him facing a Utah defense that led the Pac-12 in sacks last season (41) and forced 12 interceptions.

There were only four games last season in which Mertz didn’t throw a pick, and those all came against teams that didn’t finish inside the top 25 AP Poll. This No.6 Utah defense is legit, returning most of their starters from last season, including future NFL defensive tackle Junior Tafuna.

The current interception prop for Mertz at DraftKings implies there is only a 60% chance Mertz will throw a pick Thursday, which isn’t high enough given Mertz’s history. The latest Florida vs Utah odds have the Utes favored by 4.5 points, and if Kyle Whittingham’s team pulls off the victory, it will be their elite defense that makes a few big plays.

• Pick: Graham Mertz OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-145)

Pick #2: Micah Bernard Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

While Graham Mertsz is healthy and starting at quarterback for Florida, Utah’s QB situation is a bit murky with senior Cam Rising questionable to suit up following the ACL injury he suffered in last season’s Rose Bowl.

Utah already relied heavily on its ground game last season, and we expect that to be the case even more so if Rising doesn’t play Thursday. The player prop we like targeting here is the rushing yards over/under for Micah Bernard, who is back at Utah after considering an offseason transfer.

This play perfectly embodies Micah Bernard for me. All heart. No quit. The team was deflated and would eventually lose this game. Micah Bernard was fighting for yards and gave it his all. I'm going to miss him seeing him as a Ute. pic.twitter.com/PAHyINtKIh

— Peace, Love, & Utes (@peaceloveutes) January 4, 2023

Bernard played a key role in Utah’s biggest games of the 2022 campaign, rushing for an average of 79 yards against Colorado, USC and Penn State in the final stretch of the season. We think he’ll be able to find holes in a UF rush defense that was fourth-last in the SEC last season (176 YPG).

When you look at this matchup last season, the Utes rushed for 230 yards on the Gators in a 29-26 victory. Tavion Thomas saw the bulk of the carries, but now he’s off playing in the NFL. Expect Bernard to have a bigger role this time around, and exceed his rushing total in the process.

• Pick: Micah Bernard OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Nebraska vs Minnesota Player Props

In the Nebraska vs Minnesota player props, both quarterbacks have passing yards over/unders under 200 yards, with Jeff Sims having the slight edge at 187.5 yards. Minnesota running back Sean Tyler has the highest rushing yards over/under on the board at 77.5 yards.

Pick #1: Jeff Sims Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Georgia Tech transfer quarterback Jeff Sims is set to make his debut for Nebraska against Minnesota on Friday night. Oddsmakers are airing on the side of caution with Sims’ player props, setting his rushing yards over/under at 34.5 despite his impressive stats at Georgia Tech.

During his three years with the Yellow Jackets, Sims showcased his dual-threat ability by rushing for 1,152 yards and 11 scores. The senior quarterback is one of only 14 active FBS quarterbacks with 4,000 career passing yards and 1,000 career rushing yards.

Jeff Sims locked in #GBR pic.twitter.com/BumFRUj1ca

— 247Huskers (@247Huskers) August 28, 2023

Minnesota had one of the better defenses in the Big Ten last season, but it was their secondary that finished second in the conference while their rushing defense ranked outside the top-five. In the 2022 Nebraska vs Minnesota matchup, Cornhuskers QB Chuba Purdy managed 24 rushing yards in limited action.

Sims averaged 59 rushing yards per game in Georgia Tech’s final three contests of the 2022 campaign, and we project him making a few big plays with his legs Thursday. Nebraska’s offensive line is one of their biggest question marks, so we can also envision Sims scrambling to avoid pressure and using his elusiveness to gain yards.

• Pick: Jeff Sims OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Pick #2: Sean Tyler Under 77.5 Rushing Yards

Some Minnesota fans expect Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler to come onto the team and immediately replace the production of former Gophers star running back Mohamed Ibrahim. We expect Tyler to be a solid fit in the Gophers’ offense, but his stats might not be as flashy as you are expecting.

Tyler rushed for 2,820 yards over four years at Western Michigan, but a 1,000-yard season in the Mid-American Conference isn’t quite the same as a 1,000-yard season in the Big Ten. He’ll have his work cut out for him facing Matt Rhule’s Nebraska, with the coach having a reputation for turning programs around defensively.

Tyler will get his yards Thursday, but we don’t see him going over this prop number with sixth-year senior running back Bryce Williams sharing the workload, plus top RB prospects Zach Evans and Darius Taylor hungry to make an impact.

If you take a look at Tyler’s four games against top competition over the past two years (Power 5), you’ll see he averaged 55 yards per game on the ground. Yes, the supporting cast will be better at Minnesota than Western Michigan, but we don’t know how quickly the Minnesota O-line will gel following the loss of its leader John Michael Schmitz (NFL).

• Pick: Sean Tyler UNDER 77.5 Rushing Yards (-140)

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