NFL Betting – Raiders, Saints Set for Shootout

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (pk, 51 o/u)

Both the Oakland Raiders (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS) and New Orleans Saints (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are coming off sub-.500 seasons. But the outlooks for the squads are substantially different for 2016. The Raiders are a trendy pick to make the leap thanks to a roster full of young talent. The Saints are still dependent on the aging arm of Drew Brees, a troupe of mediocre receivers, and a gossamer defense. Is this the year Oakland turns into a contender? We’ll start to find out this Sunday (1:00 PM Eastern) when they visit New Orleans at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Raiders showed their potential at points last year. Derek Carr wasn’t exactly consistent in his sophomore season, but did wind up with 3,987 passing yards, 32 TDs, and 13 picks as Oakland finished 16th in passing yards (242.4 yards per game).

Amari Cooper had a solid rookie season out wide, leading the team with 1,070 receiving yards.

The ground game didn’t hold up its end, averaging just 91.1 YPG. Oakland has stockpiled offensive linemen though and should see an improvement in that area.

The area where they need to see the most improvement is on the defensive side. The Raiders gave up nearly 25 points per contest in 2015. Khalil Mack was an absolute stud in the pass rush, finishing second in the league in sacks. But the secondary was routinely victimized. Oakland brought in 2015 interception leader Reggie Nelson from Cincinnati and solid corner Sean Smith from KC drafted to remedy the problem. Whether they gel out of the gate remains to be seen.

They’ll certainly be tested early and often against the Saints. Though Brees is nearing 40, he still has game (when he’s healthy). He nearly hit 5,000 yards in 2015 (4,870 yards, 32 TDs to just 11 picks) even though he missed time, and even though he was throwing to a crop of relative no-names, case in point: undrafted rookie Willie Snead and his 984 yards.

The defense was prolific in its own right, allowing yards and points at a rate that even Brees couldn’t match. The team’s 29.8 points-against per game was dead-last in the league. The unit was particularly bad against the pass and brought in Cortland Finnegan to shore up the secondary. But Finnegan couldn’t even crack the 53-man roster, and now veteran Sterling Moore has been signed to line-up opposite Delvin Breaux.

In reality, New Orleans did very little to improve its horrid defense in the offseason. You can only expect so much from first-round pick Sheldon Rankins on the D-line and second-round safety Vonn Bell.

The O/U is at 51 – the highest among Week 1 games – but I still like the over in this one. The Saints will score points against an improved, but still penetrable, Oakland defense, while Carr and Cooper will victimize New Orleans’ weak secondary. Expect a shootout.

Pick: OVER (51).

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].