2017 NFL Draft Props: I Would Draft 500 Myles (Garretts)

Is it just me or were NFL Draft props more fun when you could count on the Browns to do something idiotic? Yeah, we still have the Jets, but they’ve been downright competitive in (some) recent years. That takes the fun out of it.

With Sashi Brown and company running the show, Cleveland was positively clever last year, taking a talented wideout (Corey Coleman) and feisty edge rusher (Manny Ogbah) with their first two picks. I guess that means you can start going over the pencil you used to write “Myles Garrett” into the first-overall slot with permanent marker. There’s no question who should go number one, based on talent and ceiling. And now, unlike in years past, there’s not really any question whether the Browns will ignore reason and logic.

Sigh.

I won’t let that take all the fun out of the draft, though. As mentioned, the Jets are still the Jets, and they could get cray-cray at no. 6. I hear they really like the leg on this kicker out of Arizona State. Plus, there are a bunch of QB-needy teams and not many quality pivots. The potential for moving up the draft order via ill-advised trade will be omnipresent.

And don’t forget that the draft is taking place in Philadelphia which, last I checked, was still full of Philadelphians. So, y’know, we might see someone whip a cheesesteak at Jerry Jones.

Before the draft kicks off this Thursday (April 27), take a tour of our Article of Prop-erly Love. We’ve got odds on all the shenanigans that might go down in Philly, including when those reformed Browns will take their latest “quarterback of the future.” We’ll start with the legitimate draft props and then slowly wane into fashion statements and Trump tweets. Like a frog in a slowly heating pot of water, you won’t even notice it happening. Enjoy the ride.

ET = Eric Thompson
SB = Sydney Benson
SP = Sascha Paruk

2017 NFL DRAFT PROPS

Odds on the first QB selected

• Mitchell Trubisky: 1/2
• DeShaun Watson: 4/1
• Patrick Mahomes: 9/1
• FIELD: 24/1

Trubisky is pretty consistently the first QB off the board across the mock draft universe, but his spot is far from secure in even the top 10. The later it gets into the first round, the greater the chances a team could jump on Watson, or this year’s late riser Mahomes. – ET

Odds on the first team to draft a QB

• Browns: 4/1
• 49ers: 5/1
• Jets: 5/1
• Bills: 7/1
• Bears: 8/1
• Texans: 8/1
• Cardinals: 10/1
• FIELD: 13/2

Like I said above, it doesn’t look like any quarterbacks are worth a top-five pick, so pinpointing who will end up with one first becomes a challenge. Will Kyle Shanahan reach on a franchise pivot in his first year, or trade back to a spot where taking a QB makes more sense? The Browns have two opportunities to grab one, and potentially more if they follow last year’s model of stockpiling picks. Houston is in desperate need of a QB and is one of the few teams that could make a trade up to get one. – ET

Over/Under number of QBs selected in the first round: 2.5

Given the makeup of this year’s draft class – which is incredibly deep defensively and light on first-round worthy QBs – it’s inconceivable to me that four quarterbacks get taken in the first round. Even three might be a reach, as most teams near the end of the first don’t need a QB, so much as having a backup for the future would be nice. Hitting the OVER may come from a team like San Francisco or Chicago trading back into the first round, late. – ET

Over/under on when the Browns select a quarterback: pick no. 32.5

The Browns have two first-round picks: no. 1 and no. 12. Call me crazy, but I have faith the Browns won’t reach on a QB this year. No one in this year’s class is worthy of going no. 1. No one in this year’s class is even worthy of going no. 12. Add in the fact that a team like the Niners, Jets, or Bills could reach for Trubisky in the top-ten, and you should have a situation where Cleveland heads into the second round without taking a pivot. – SP

Odds the following QBs change teams before May 1st

• Jimmy Garoppolo, New England: 15/1
• Brock Osweiler, Cleveland: 20/1
• Kirk Cousins, Washington: 100/1
• Colin Kaepernick, free agent: 100/1 

Over/under on number of trades between 12:00 AM Eastern, April 27th, and the last pick in the 2017 draft: 25.5

This is the only time of year GMs seem open to a trade. They tend to go a little nuts over these three days getting it out of their system. It’s sort of like that movie The Purge. – ET

Odds the Eagles trade up in the first round: 15/4

Hosting the draft may put a little extra pressure on Philly to make a splash, but the Eagles aren’t sitting on a ton of assets they could use to move up from the 14th spot. They have a couple fourth-round picks, but in a draft that’s pretty deep at their biggest need, cornerback, moving back seems like the more likely trade. – ET

Odds to be the last player left in the green room

• DeShone Kizer, QB: 11/4
• Chidobe Awuzie, CB: 5/1
• Adoree’ Jackson, CB: 5/1
• Malik McDowell, DL: 15/2
• Kevin King, CB: 11/1
• Haason Reddick, LB: 15/1
• Tre’Davious White, CB: 22/1
• FIELD: 8/1

The biggest myth in sports is that “the green room is the loneliest place for the last guy.” In reality, the room isn’t green at all. – ET

Over/Under number of defensive players selected in the first round: 17.5

In case you hadn’t heard, it’s a good draft for teams that need defensive help. No wonder the Saints wanted another first round pick. – ET

Over/Under draft position for Joe Mixon (RB, Oklahoma): 43.5

Does an unforgivable act off the field override talent on the field? You be the judge! – ET

Odds to be the first offensive player selected

• Leonard Fournette, RB: 5/4
• Mitchell Trubisky, QB: 7/2
• OJ Howard, TE: 5/1
• Mike Williams, WR: 12/1
• Corey Davis, WR: 18/1
• DeShaun Watson, QB: 20/1
• FIELD: 30/1

Odds a player projected to be a top-10 pick by Mel Kiper/Todd McShay is not selected in the first round: 2/1

Kiper and McShay teamed up for their last mock, and played it pretty safe. They don’t have a QB in the top ten, and their most controversial pick is probably Hassan Reddick. The Temple product is still a top-25 prospect anywhere you look. We do see guys fall every year though, especially ones with injury concerns (like Jonathan Allen). And who knows what out-of-context pictures will emerge minutes before the draft this year. – SP

Odds the Cowboys first-round pick is …

• a defensive player: 1/5

• an offensive player: 5/1

This is a deep draft at Dallas’ biggest areas of need: edge rusher and corner. – SP

Odds the Cowboys draft a QB: 3/1

Have they forgotten the lesson they learned back in 2015: you need a reliable backup (i.e. someone not named Kellen Moore)? I don’t think so. But Jerry Jones might think he has a reliable backup sitting in a CBS commentary box, and the QBs they worked out (e.g. Seth Russell, Skyler Howard) should be available as free agents after the draft. – SP

Over/Under number of Cowboys draft picks from Texas colleges: 1.5

They’ve taken nine over the last eight drafts, including at least one in the past three. They took three back in ’09, but they also had 12 picks that year.

Odds the Cowboys trade up and select Myles Garrett first overall: 50/1

Cleveland’s not interested in trading down. They need Garrett’s edge rushing talents just as much as Dallas.

Odds the Lions’ first-round pick is from a Michigan college: 11/1

Obviously we’re talking about four main guys here: Taco Charlton (DE, Mich), Malik McDowell (DT, MSU), Corey Davis (W. Mich), and Jabrill Peppers (S, Mich). Charlton is the best bet. His pass-rush skills fill a big need for the relatively sack-less Lions, and there’s a good chance he’s still around at no. 21.

McDowell also fills a need. The Lions’ rush-defense stats weren’t horrible, on the surface (106 YPG; 4.4 YPA), but they were dead-last in DVOA.

Davis will likely be off the board, and receiver isn’t their biggest hole anyway. Neither is the secondary, and who knows what position the thoroughly hydrated Peppers will play at the next level.

Odds the Giants first-round pick is …

• an offensive player: 2/5
• a defensive player: 5/2

They need to beef up the o-line. If Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk are around, they should pull the trigger.

Odds the Giants first-round pick is a running back: 9/2

The G-Men also need a bell-cow back. But Fournette and McCaffrey will likely be off the board and McCaffrey doesn’t fit the bill anyway. That leaves Dalvin Cook, whose stock is sliding; Alvin Kamara, who’s a borderline first-rounder at best; and Joe Mixon, who has those euphemistic “off-field issues” and isn’t first-round worthy anyway. Cook would make some sense. Other than that, they should hold off and grab a guy like Samaje Perine or James Conner in the later rounds.

Odds the Cardinals first-round pick is a QB: 6/1

Some team is going to reach for Trubisky in the top-ten. Neither he nor Watson are top-15 talents. A lot of mocks have the Cards taking Mahomes in the first round at no. 13. Steve Keim knows better than that. Mahomes is not a top-15 talent. They can get one more serviceable year out of Carson Palmer and then get their guy next year in a much better QB class. So, unless Zona trades back in the first round, I don’t see it happening. And there are a lot more teams that want to trade back than trade up.

Odds the Jets do not draft a QB: 4/1

There’s a lot not to like about this year’s QB class. There’s even more not to like about the Jets’ QB depth chart.

NCAA CONFERENCE/SCHOOL PROPS

Odds on which conference will have the most first-round picks

• SEC: 2/11
• Big Ten: 15/1
• ACC: 15/1
• Pac-12: 28/1
• Big 12: 45/1
• FIELD: 500/1

Odds on which conference will have most picks through all seven rounds

• SEC: 1/6
• ACC: 16/1
• Big Ten: 21/1
• Pac-12: 30/1
• Big 12: 50/1
• FIELD: 1000/1

Although we all hate the SEC and that obnoxious air of superiority it carries around, they’ve kind of earned it. They’ve dominated the NFL Draft in recent years, and it’s not even that close. – ET

Odds on which school will have the most first-round picks

• Alabama: 1/5
• Ohio State: 6/1
• LSU: 32/1

Nick Saban is the John Calipari of football: they both failed coaching at the pro level and now make way more money as a result. Also, they produce a lot of first-rounders. OJ Howard (TE), Jonathan Allen (DE), Reuben Foster (LB) are three Tide standouts you’ll see on day one. Cam Robinson (OT) is a good bet, as well, given the scarcity of quality offensive linemen in this draft. Marlon Humphrey (CB) could sneak into the first round.

Ohio State could tie with Bama at three – Malik Hooker (S), Marshon Lattimore (CB), Gareon Conley (CB) – but their next best prospects, Curtis Samuel (WR) and Raekwon McMillan (LB), are first-round longshots.

LSU will be lucky to get three into the first round. Jamal Adams (S) and Leonard Fournette (RB) are locks. Tre’davious White (CB) is very much not in this corner-heavy draft class. – SP

THE INTANGIBLES

Odds on whose final mock draft will have the most correct first-round selections

• Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com): 1/1
• Rob Rang (CBS): 5/2
• Mel Kiper/Todd McShay (ESPN): 7/2

Jeremiah has the best past results, seems to be the most connected and, for my money, has the best pedigree for analyzing prospects. Kiper and McShay tend to do better on their own than as a team. Rob Rang is the best CBS has to offer, but I still like DJ. – SP

Odds to be the first college coach interviewed by ESPN

• Urban Meyer, Ohio State: 7/2
• David Shaw, Stanford: 4/1
• Nick Saban, Alabama: 9/2
• Ed Orgeron, LSU: 7/1
• Larry Fedora, North Carolina:8/1
• Brian Kelly, Notre Dame: 19/1
• Dabo Swinney, Clemson: 20/1
• Chris Petersen, Washington: 75/1
• Butch Jones, Tennessee: 100/1
• Jim Mora, UCLA: 100/1

None of the coaches who have confirmed they will be in attendance are the type to give the media juicy quotes, so it comes down to whose player gets drafted first. Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin won’t be there to see Myles Garrett be the likely number one pick, so that means Urban Meyer, David Shaw and Nick Saban will probably be the faces you hear from first. Larry Fedora could turn that theory upside down if Mitchell Trubisky is picked second overall. – SB

Odds on which of the 22 green room attendees will make the most outrageous fashion statement

• Leonard Fournette, LSU: 4/1
• Jamal Adams, LSU: 5/1
• Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 6/1
• Adoree’ Jackson, USC: 8/1
• Kevin King, Washington:  9/1
• Gareon Conley, OSU: 11/1
• Malik McDowell, Michigan State: 11/1
• John Ross, Washington: 19/1
• Cam Robinson, Alabama: 20/1

So this isn’t the most precise prop. But if anyone pulls an Ezekiel Elliott, moot wording won’t be an issue. Fournette sits at the top of the list as he’s been known to rock the cowboy hat or fur vest; it’s safe to say he’s not afraid to take a fashion risk. Jamal Adams and Deshaun Watson also love to dress fresh, showing up to games wearing sleek coats, shoes and accessories that prove they know what they like. Expect the rest of the group to rock a little bit of color, pattern, and a few bow-ties (more on this below). – SB

Odds on the most common (primary) suit color of the 22 green room attendees

• Blue: 2/1
• Purple: 7/2
• Black: 9/2
• Grey: 7/1
• White: 11/1
• Red: 25/1

Baby blue, sky blue, navy blue, purple blue. With so many different kinds of blue out there, nearly every player in attendance could wear a version and it would still be in the same color family. Purple is also very high up on the list; for some reason, football players like to wear that color. And if you’re looking for a bold statement, you might see one or two all red or white suits out there. – SB

Odds on the primary color of Roger Goodell’s tie

• Blue: 3/2
• Grey: 7/3
• Green: 17/3
• Red: 11/1
• Purple: 19/1

Goodell might pick green because the draft is in Philadelphia, but he may not want to look like he’s playing favorites either. Blue and grey are usually safe bets, but the fact of the matter is his tie is probably picked out for him, and he really has no choice (or cares). – SB

Over/Under number of green room attendees (22) wearing a bow-tie: 6.5

That Tucker Carlson look is all the rage these days. – SP

Over/under on the length of time Roger Goodell is booed when he first steps to the podium: 12.5 seconds

Goodell was booed for a solid 25 seconds while he was handing Robert Kraft the Lombardi trophy at Super Bowl LI. The fans only stopped because Goodell stopped talking. Philly fans don’t have as much to be aggrieved about, but they are Philly fans who haven’t had anything to boo about for four months. That’s a lot of pent up booing to get out of your system. Count on it being a little longer than the ten or so seconds the Chicago crowd mustered last year. – SP

Odds PJ Fleck or an ESPN analyst says Fleck’s catch-phrase “Row The Boat” during an interview or in conjunction with Corey Davis’ selection: 1/5

Odds on which team’s first-round pick announcement is booed the longest by fans

• Cowboys: 3/2
• Giants: 3/2
• Washington: 5/1
• Jets: 50/1
• FIELD: 50/1

Who do Philly fans hate the most? That’s like asking a parent which of their children they love the most. There’s an infinite amount to go around. Dallas and NY get the edge because Washington is Washington. – SP

Odds that ESPN shows video of Donovan McNabb being booed upon being drafted by the Eagles: 1/99

They do 7,000 hours of coverage for 20 minutes of excitement. I’m sure they’ll find time for it in their busy schedule. – ET

Odds Donald Trump posts an NFL-related tweet between April 27-30: 1/2