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2019 NFL Draft Props: Odds Say More Than 3.5 QBs Selected in 1st Round

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Apr 12, 2019 · 9:49 AM PDT

Kyler Murray vs Alabama defense
Kyler Murray has become the heavy favorite to be selected first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. Photo from @sportsidle (Twitter)
  • Books have released a wide selection of props for the 2019 NFL Draft
  • You can bet on how many quarterbacks will be selected in the first round
  • We have the best bet for each prop available

The first pick of the 2019 NFL Draft will be announced Thursday April 25th, and books want us to have some skin in the game. They have released a collection of First Round NFL Draft props ranging from the total number of quarterbacks selected to the draft position of the most coveted names on the board.

Over/Under Draft Position in 1st Round

Player Draft Position Over Odds Under Odds
Kyler Murray 2.5 +300 -500
Nick Bosa 2.5 +150 -200
Quinnen Williams 3.5 -120 -120
Dwayne Haskins 10.5 -120 -120

*All odds taken 04/12/19

If everything breaks just right, these four names could be the first four taken on draft night, but no matter how it shakes out, Murray and Bosa won’t be around by pick number three. Murray had one of the best statistical seasons ever by a college quarterback in 2018, and there’s little chance Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals pass on that type of potential.

Bosa, meanwhile, will fill a gaping need for the 49ers at number two and just so happens to be best player on the board. He’s the second highest graded collegiate pass rusher ever by Pro Football Focus, and will immediately improve a defense that’s finished bottom-12 in sacks in six straight seasons.

Pick number three is where things start to get interesting. Williams is a game wrecker, as evident by his 19.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks last season, but the Jets have a bigger need on the edge and could opt for Kentucky’s Josh Allen. New York is reportedly open to trading the pick, and no one would be surprised if a team starved for quarterback talent moved up to grab Haskins.

Even if the Jets keep their pick, the Giants and Bengals will be on the clock soon afterwards, and both of those teams are desperate to find a future franchise quarterback.

Picks: Murray Under 2.5 (-500), Bosa Under 2.5 (-200), Haskins Under 10.5 (-120)

Over/Under Number of Players Selected by Position in 1st Round

Position Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Quarterback 3.5 -200 +150
Running Back 1 +200 -300
Wide Receiver 2.5 -120 -120

Murray, Haskins, and Drew Lock are all but guaranteed to go in the first round, meaning the quarterback prop will come down to whether or not a team reaches for Daniel Jones. His resume is underwhelming, but some NFL teams just can’t help themselves. His anticipation and vision are reportedly the best in the class, but that alone shouldn’t warrant a first round pick.

As far as offensive skill position players go, no running back is projected to be drafted in the first round by Mel Kiper or Todd McShay, but most experts believe three to four wide receivers will go on the first day, led by DK Metcalf.

Marquise Brown, AJ Brown, and Terry McLaurin round out the top tier of receivers and there should be plenty of demand for playmakers to push that total over 2.5.

Picks: Quarterback Under 3.5 (+150), Wide Receiver Over 2.5 (-120)

Over/Under Number of Offensive and Defensive Players Selected in 1st Round

Position Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Offensive Players 15.5 +100 -140
Defensive Players 16.5 -140 +100

It’s been nine years since more defensive players were taken in the top-10 than offensive players, but this year the tide appears to have turned. While the top of the class seems littered with defensive studs, the back half of the draft is offensive heavy, which will balance the scale.

Pick: Offensive Players Over 15.5 (+100)

Over/Under When the 1st Receiver Will Be Selected in 1st Round

Pick Over Odds Under Odds
19.5 -120 -120

This isn’t the best receiving class in recent memory, but there’s still a lot of talent that teams who need pass catching help won’t be able to pass up. Players like DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown are first round talents, and one if not both will be off the board by pick 20.

Pick: Under 19.5 (-120)

Over/Under How Many Alabama Players Will Be Selected in 1st Round

Projection Over Odds Under Odds
2.5 -160 +120

Quinnen Williams is a lock to go top-5, while Jonah Williams is one of the best interior linemen in the draft and should crack the top-15.  Alabama’s next two highest graded players are running back Josh Jacobs and tight end Irv Smith Jr., and the latter is gaining a lot of buzz.

Both are potential first round picks, and it would be a shock if both were still available at the start of Day 2.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

Odds the Top 2 Picks Are Both Quarterbacks

Will the Top 2 Picks Both Be Quarterbacks? Odds
No -5000
Yes +2000

Unless something drastically changes in the next two weeks, this prop is no contest. Murray will undoubtedly go number one, but no team appears willing to put together the type of package it would take to get the Niners to trade the second pick.

Pick: No (-5000)

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