Cowboys vs Rams Divisional Round Props – Gurley & Zeke Do Damage as Receivers
- The Dallas Cowboys visit the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday night (January 12th) for the Divsional Round of the NFL Playoffs
- What can we expect from star running backs Elliott and Gurley?
- Which Rams’ receiver offers the best value to find the end zone?
Saturday night’s NFC Divisional Round matchup features a game between the Dallas Cowboys and LA Rams.
We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for the second of four games this weekend.
Prop #1: Ezekiel Elliott & Todd Gurley to Have 10+ Receptions & 90+ Receiving Yards Combined
| Player Props | Odds 1 |
|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott & Todd Gurley At Least 10+ Combined Receptions | -357 |
| Ezekiel Elliott & Todd Gurley At Least 90+ Combined Receiving Yards | -133 |
| Parlay | +100 |
*For more options please follow the link in the table. All odds taken on 01/10/2019.
No matter which team you’re cheering for on Saturday this bet will give you something to get excited about nearly every time either quarterback drops back to pass.
No doubt both Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley will have a big impact on this game both as runners but also as receiving threats.
Saturday night in L.A. the NFL's top 2 running backs will square off: Ezekiel Elliott vs. Todd Gurley
Zeke: "It's playoff football. It's about the team. It's not really about individuals. It's about trying to go get that Super Bowl." https://t.co/QWgV3BQztD
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) January 9, 2019
Both have hit double-digit catches once this season. While those days were abnormally high, Elliott had caught at least five passes in seven straight games until last week when he finished with four.
Five of those seven games he went over five catches.
Elliott vs Gurley Avg Receptions & Receiving Yards Last 5 Games
| 6.8 | Avg Receptions | 4.4 |
| 47.2 | Avg Receiving Yards | 43.6 |
Gurley missed some time with injury, but his last action saw him catch ten passes for 76 yards. Against the Cowboys, Gurley will face a defense ranked 21st in YPG allowed to running backs as receivers.
Look back at the averages for each player over their last five games and you’ll see their combined averages land right near the number for each prop.
Pick 1: Ezekiel Elliott & Todd Gurley to Have 10+ Receptions & 90+ Receiving Yards Combined
Prop #2: Josh Reynolds To Have 1+ Receiving TD
| Rams Receiver Props | Odds 1 |
|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks 1+ Rec TDs | -118 |
| Robert Woods 1+ Rec TDs | -105 |
| Josh Reynolds 1+ Rec TDs | +140 |
The LA Rams were the league’s second-highest scoring team on a PPG basis at 32.9.
While Reynolds is not the first name that jumps off the page when you picture where the scoring may come from, he simply offers the most value when looking at Rams receivers.
While Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are the clear favorites to find the end zone, Reynolds has been no less likely to score of late. Each of the three receivers have caught two touchdown passes over their past five games.
Weeks 11-17 (after Cooper Kupp ACL tear):
Robert Woods: 52 targets, 553 air yards
Brandin Cooks: 43, 513
Josh Reynolds 41, 516 pic.twitter.com/dWt0fhNbMj— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) January 9, 2019
Reynolds and Cooks each had two in LA’s season finale against the 49ers.
In the past five games, Reynolds has caught 16 passes on 33 targets for 224 yards. By comparison, Cooks caught 21 on 33 passes for 240 yards. Woods is the clear leader with 27 receptions on 40 targets for 315 yards.
Despite seeing less than half of the total targets on the year as his teammates, Reynolds’ five receiving TDs equal Cooks’ five and is only one less than Woods’ six.
CJ Anderson : 23 carries for 132 yards & a TD; 3 catches for 22 yards
Brandin Cooks : 5 catches for 62 yards & 2 TD's on 9 targets
Josh Reynolds : 4 catches for 55 yards & 2 TD's on 7 targets pic.twitter.com/nruPtHEuqx— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life25) December 31, 2018
Finally, the Cowboys rank sixth in DVOA against opponents’ top WRs. They rank third in DVOA against number two WRs. But they only rank 22nd against any other opponent WR, meaning Reynolds could see some extra space on Saturday.
Pick 2: Josh Reynolds To Have 1+ Receiving TD +140
Prop #3: Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 First Half Points
| Cowboys Total First Half Points | Odds 2 |
|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -140 |
| Under 9.5 | +100 |
The Cowboys average almost right on 9.5 points, with 9.6 points per first half in the regular season. At -140, bookies are expecting them to exceed that average on Saturday and I agree.
True, the Cowboys’ first half points average is terrible on the road – 5.8 road points per first half is ranked dead last in the league.
There were a combined 58 first-half points in this year's Wild Card round.
That is the second-fewest in the last 15 seasons (50 in 2015). Only the Colts and Cowboys scored TDs in the first half this weekend.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 6, 2019
However, the Rams have been more than willing to give up early points by only ranking 21st with 12.2 points allowed per first half. At home they are actually slightly worse, ranking 26th and allowing 12.9 points.
The Cowboys managed ten points last week in the first half which is now the third game in a row they’ve scored ten or more. The games prior they scored 14 and 17.
A rematch with its electricity etched all throughout history.
From Dallas to LA, the battle at the Coliseum goes way back and its roots run deep.Saturday night. #FinishThisFight pic.twitter.com/uquzYsdNTL
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) January 11, 2019
By comparison, the past three Rams’ games have seen them allow ten, nine, and 13 first half points.
Pick 3: Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 First Half Points -140
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
