2022 NFL Win Totals Have Opened – Bills Projected to Win the Most Games

• NFL win totals for 2022 season released, Bills and Buccaneers both tops at 11.5 wins
• Houston Texans have the lowest win total at 4.5
• Find out where we find betting value for the upcoming NFL season win totals

Has everyone caught their breath from what was the craziest NFL offseason in forever?

After all that movement, it’s time to wet your betting beak, as we get our first glimpse into the 2022 NFL win totals.

Not surprisingly, some familiar faces dot the top of the list, including a pivot at the absolute peak of his powers, and the GOAT, who took a 30-second sideline retirement break before getting that itch to lace ’em up again.

2022 NFL Win Totals

NFL win totals above as of March 28 from Barstool Sportsbook. If you’re not already signed up, be sure you check out the best ESPN Bet promo before registering Win totals. 

The Buffalo Bills are favored to win the most games in the NFL next year, with just slightly better odds than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with both teams set at an 11.5 win total.

Buffalo gets the slight nod (-150 to -139), most likely because Josh Allen is in his prime, and one of the favorites in the 2022 NFL MVP odds. Throw in the fact Buffalo’s defense, which was already first in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points per game allowed got beefed up with the addition of Von Miller, and they play in the highly non-competitive AFC East, and they’re business again.

Who is the #1 team in the AFC? 🤔@adamrank has the @BuffaloBills @Hawk has them 4th 😬 pic.twitter.com/WeH5DctDJz

— NFL Total Access (@NFLTotalAccess) March 28, 2022

Tampa Bay’s outlook turned in a matter of weeks when Tom Brady decided he was coming out of retirement, in the same offseason he called it quits.

They lost one key piece in the retired All-Pro guard Ali Marpet, but TBay re-upped C Ryan Jensen, corner Carlton Davis, receiver Chris Godwin, RB Leonard Fournette and swiped out the Antonio Brown headache for drama-free  slot Russell Gage. The NFC South isn’t exactly a QB hotbed, and Brady instantly becomes the best pivot in the division by a country mile.

Most playoff Pass TD in the Super Bowl Era

Packers 99
Patriots 94
Cowboys 89
Steelers 89
Tom Brady 86
49ers 84
Raiders 70
Vikings 66 pic.twitter.com/l7DvBDQtTH

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 22, 2022

Right behind them are the Green Bay Packers at 11 wins, and a crush of six 10-10.5 win total teams, including the highly optimistic Denver Broncos, back in relevant circles after landing Russell Wilson.

From the deep end to the shallow, it’s patrolled by the lowly Houston Texans and their 4.5 win total, in an offseason that saw them jettison former franchise QB Deshaun Watson. The New York Jets (5) and Atlanta Falcons (5.5) are next lowest.

Win Total Jumps

This is usually reserved for teams that were awfully bad, and things like strength of schedule and the nowhere-to-go-but-up theories come into play.

It’s no different in 2022, where the Jacksonville Jaguars’ total jumped four games, albeit from a paltry 2.5 win total to 6.5 this season.

First career NFL TD for Trevor Lawrence 🙌

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/SVwQQzGVLC

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 12, 2021

Washing the Urban Meyer experience out of their system less than a season in was the right call, and replacing him with Super-Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson is an upgrade. And he should coax more out of 2021 top pick Trevor Lawrence.

Will it all work? Playing in the AFC South helps, and they’ll come close, but I’d still count the under on this — hey, it’s still the Jags!

AMON RA ST BROWN🔥💪🏻

Lions might’ve got something in this guys👀#NFL #AZvsDET #OnePride pic.twitter.com/FVtGFY7gAn

— Immaculate Sports (@ImmacSports) December 19, 2021

The other big jumper is the Detroit Lions, set at the 6-win mark after being set at 2.5 a year ago. Like the Jags, the Lions topped that number, and a bet on this year’s team would be a belief that people’s coach Dan Campbell has the ship going in the right direction.

Seems like a big jump, considering Jared Goff is still at QB.

Mid Tier to Elite Win Totals

How about mid-tier to elite? That’s the rare air of the San Francisco 49ers, who vault from a 6.5 win total last year all the way to 10 this season.

John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan built a stacked roster top-to-bottom, so much so they hid Jimmy Garoppolo’s glaring weaknesses all the way to the NFC Title game. Trey Lance is expected to take the next step (we think), and if he even resembles competent Jimmy G, the Niners should be business out West.

Uh oh. 😏 @SuttonCourtland pic.twitter.com/LBPVIhoUKp

— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) March 22, 2022

The Broncos disappointed last year, falling under their 8.5 total en route to another listless season. But elite QB play puts them into the mix of the grinder that is the AFC West.

Russell Wilson and winning records go hand-in-hand (except last year), and though in-conference games will be a blood bath, they should pop this 10 win total.

Win Total Drops

It’s hard to churn out 14-win seasons, which is why the Packers’ take a tumble from 13.5 to 11. Even with Davante Adams now in Vegas (honestly, how did that happen?), Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers, they will still dominate the NFC North, and the Pack have posted three-straight 13 win campaigns. Take the over here.

May be my favorite throw of Aaron Rodgers' career…#ThreadTheNeedle pic.twitter.com/o9RXC6Balr

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) March 27, 2022

I swear I would have penciled in KC to win 12 games a year for the next decade with a healthy Patrick Mahomes. Now, they’ve dropped to 10.5 wins for 2022, down from 12.5. That stunted offense for much of the early part of the season, that inconsistent defense that only came on late, losing the best take-the-top-off-the-defense threat in Tyreek Hill and the AFC West all play factors. Still, Andy Reid-Mahomes has to be good for 11 wins.

And file this under: what were they thinking a year ago? The Patriots with a rookie QB were pegged at 11.5 wins. While they did come close, some fortuitous situations (aka the wind game) helped pump out that 10-win season. The Pats have reverted to a more logical 9.5.

2021 Records Don’t Matter

Perhaps the head scratcher of them all is the win total of the reigning Super Bowl champions.

The Los Angeles Rams put up 12 wins in 2021 but were pegged at a 10.5-wim total. The question is why? Losing veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth to retirement is obviously a blow, but the offense is loaded, and actually upgraded at receiver from Odell Beckahm Jr to Allen Robinson.

Aaron Donald with the sled push pic.twitter.com/AN1S5FxL33

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) February 15, 2022

As long as Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey run the defense, and Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are connecting, there’s a lot of success to come.

And what about America’s team? Dallas ripped off 12 wins a year ago in a lousy NFC East, and look to be the cream of the crop again. But they’re also pegged at 10.5 wins.

Dak Prescott’s health looms over all. If he’s right, this team has more than enough to put up 11 wins.