Upcoming Match-ups

49ers vs Cardinals Week 9 Thursday Night Football Props: Bet on the People’s Tight End

George Kittle
George Kittle has been the Niners target leader in five straight outings. Will it continue on TNF? Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
  • Week 9 kicks off with San Francisco versus Arizona on Thursday Night Football (Oct. 31)
  • Our TNF props were 1-2 last week for -0.34 units (+0.9 units for the season)
  • George Kittle “the people’s tight end” is due for positive TD regression

Our Thursday Night Football props were a disappointing 1-2 last week but fortunately, our biggest bet hit to help minimize the damage. This week, we turn our attention to the NFC West as the undefeated San Francisco 49ers visit the last-place Cardinals. Arizona has been a mouth-watering matchup for tight ends this season, and George Kittle is poised for a breakout performance.

Prop #1: George Kittle Touchdowns (At Least)

George Kittle Touchdowns (At Least) Odds
1 +140

All odds taken Oct. 30

Basically we’re betting on Kittle to score here. Over the first seven games of the season, the people’s tight end has three times as many touchdowns called back, as he has scored, including another one last week against Carolina.

Positive touchdown regression is coming. The Cardinals have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in six of eight games this season (seven of eight if you consider Taysom Hill a TE) and Kittle has been the Niners target leader in five straight outings. No one on this Cardinals team can defend him and no one should be surprised if he finds the end zone more than once.

Pick: Kittle At Least 1 Touchdown (+140)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.4 units

Prop #2: Kyler Murray More Passing Yards Than Jimmy Garoppolo

Player Odds
Kyler Murray +133
Jimmy Garoppolo -204

There’s no doubt Jimmy G will be more efficient than Kyler Murray on Thursday Night, but how much passing volume will the Niners actually need? This is a run-first team, that is a massive favorite, and if the last four weeks are any indication, Garoppolo won’t be throwing the ball much. San Fran’s QB hasn’t topped 181 passing yards in any of the Niners last four victories (all blowouts), while the team has run the ball at a 60% clip.

The Cardinals meanwhile, have no running game to speak of and with both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds sidelined, the entire offense will rest on Murray’s shoulders.

The number one overall pick has struggled in his last two starts, but he’s already put up three 300-yard passing games this season, and he’s likely going to push 40 attempts versus the 49ers. It might not be pretty, but in the end Murray should get there on sheer volume alone.

Pick: Murray More Passing Yards Than Garoppolo (+133)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.33 units

Prop #3: Christian Kirk Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 4.5 -120
Under 4.5 -120

In the four full games Christian Kirk has played this season he’s seen target counts of 12, 8, 12 and 11. He’s clearly Murray’s number one option and he just so happens to draw the best possible matchup against this stout Niners defense.

San Fran is excellent at shutting down outside receivers, but Kirk operates almost exclusively in the slot. Fellow slot receivers Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith-Schuster and Jarvis Landry have all posted big numbers against the Niners and Kirk’s shallow average of depth of target should yield plenty of easy completions.

Pick: Kirk Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.83 units

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.