- Week 9 kicks off with San Francisco versus Arizona on Thursday Night Football (Oct. 31)
- Our TNF props were 1-2 last week for -0.34 units (+0.9 units for the season)
- George Kittle “the people’s tight end” is due for positive TD regression
Our Thursday Night Football props were a disappointing 1-2 last week but fortunately, our biggest bet hit to help minimize the damage. This week, we turn our attention to the NFC West as the undefeated San Francisco 49ers visit the last-place Cardinals. Arizona has been a mouth-watering matchup for tight ends this season, and George Kittle is poised for a breakout performance.
Prop #1: George Kittle Touchdowns (At Least)
|George Kittle Touchdowns (At Least)||Odds|
All odds taken Oct. 30
Basically we’re betting on Kittle to score here. Over the first seven games of the season, the people’s tight end has three times as many touchdowns called back, as he has scored, including another one last week against Carolina.
Would-be touchdown for #49ers TE George Kittle wiped away by offensive pass interference on WR Deebo Samuel. Second touchdown this season Kittle has had wiped by an OPI and third overall.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) October 27, 2019
Positive touchdown regression is coming. The Cardinals have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in six of eight games this season (seven of eight if you consider Taysom Hill a TE) and Kittle has been the Niners target leader in five straight outings. No one on this Cardinals team can defend him and no one should be surprised if he finds the end zone more than once.
Pick: Kittle At Least 1 Touchdown (+140)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Prop #2: Kyler Murray More Passing Yards Than Jimmy Garoppolo
There’s no doubt Jimmy G will be more efficient than Kyler Murray on Thursday Night, but how much passing volume will the Niners actually need? This is a run-first team, that is a massive favorite, and if the last four weeks are any indication, Garoppolo won’t be throwing the ball much. San Fran’s QB hasn’t topped 181 passing yards in any of the Niners last four victories (all blowouts), while the team has run the ball at a 60% clip.
It was pointed out to Jimmy Garoppolo that after a lot of games it’s the defense and running game being talked about, not him. Assume he’s OK with that? “I’m all right with being undefeated, yeah.”
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) October 29, 2019
The Cardinals meanwhile, have no running game to speak of and with both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds sidelined, the entire offense will rest on Murray’s shoulders.
The number one overall pick has struggled in his last two starts, but he’s already put up three 300-yard passing games this season, and he’s likely going to push 40 attempts versus the 49ers. It might not be pretty, but in the end Murray should get there on sheer volume alone.
Pick: Murray More Passing Yards Than Garoppolo (+133)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Prop #3: Christian Kirk Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
In the four full games Christian Kirk has played this season he’s seen target counts of 12, 8, 12 and 11. He’s clearly Murray’s number one option and he just so happens to draw the best possible matchup against this stout Niners defense.
9+ targets per game club:
Michael Thomas (11.1)
Cooper Kupp (10.9)
Tyler Boyd (10.4)
DeAndre Hopkins (10.1)
Keenan Allen (10)
Julian Edelman (9.9)
Christian Kirk (9.6)
Mike Evans (9.6)
Allen Robinson (9.4)
Julio Jones (9.3)
Chris Godwin (9)
Davante Adams (9)
Golden Tate (9)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 29, 2019
San Fran is excellent at shutting down outside receivers, but Kirk operates almost exclusively in the slot. Fellow slot receivers Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith-Schuster and Jarvis Landry have all posted big numbers against the Niners and Kirk’s shallow average of depth of target should yield plenty of easy completions.
Pick: Kirk Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.83 units
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