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NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 13: Predictions for TD Props

Matt McEwan

By Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Published:


Bucky Irving breaking a tackle
Nov 24, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) fights for yards as New York Giants cornerback Dru Phillips (22) tackles during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
  • Sportsbooks have made NFL TD props available for all games in Week 13 of the 2024-25 NFL season
  • I have combed through all of the NFL touchdown odds, as well as relevant TD stats, to round up what I believe are the best TD picks for Week 13
  • See the 12 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 13 below

Even though NFL TD props are by far the most popular prop, according to any sportsbook you ask, betting TDs successfully can be quite difficult, and involves a fair amount of research. Sportsbooks have released all of their Week 13 NFL TD odds, and I have done the work of picking through each player’s odds, as well as the relevant TD stats for those players and their respective opponents. After all that work, I have come up with 12 players I believe are the best bets to score a touchdown in Week 13.

I suffered through an awful week of TD picks last week, going an embarrassing 2-10 to lose 4.8 units. Sorry to all of those who tailed. I still don’t understand how none of Kareem Hunt, Jalen Hurts, or Brian Robinson didn’t find the endzone in spite of their respective teams each scoring 26+ points. But I’m going to flush last week’s results, just like I did a good chunk of this season’s profit from TD bets. Here are the 12 players I am betting in Week 13 to get back on track with my TD picks!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 13

Player Anytime TD Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs -163 (bet365)
Malik Nabers +240 (BetMGM)
Jonnu Smith +250 (bet365)
DeAndre Hopkins +220 (Caesars)
Tee Higgins +145 (Caesars)
Anthony Richardson +160 (Caesars)
Nico Collins +125 (bet365)
Cooper Kupp +130 (Caesars)
Bucky Irving +120 (bet365)
AJ Brown +130 (FanDuel)
James Cook -110 (bet365)
Courtland Sutton +185 (Caesars)

I am betting the 12 players above to score a touchdown in Week 13, with each being a half-unit bet, other than Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving, who are full-unit bets.

While I only focus on NFL TD props in this article, SBD does have plenty of coverage on other types of props as well. You can check out our NFL props page to see all the available passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders, while it also does the line shopping for you!

Keep reading if you’d like to see my justification for each of the players above.

Jahmyr Gibbs

In spite of backfield mate David Montgomery being more of the traditional “goal line back,” he and Jahmyr Gibbs have split those duties pretty evenly. Montgomery has 12 carries inside of the five-yard-line, while Gibbs has 11. If you open it up to all red zone looks, Montgomery has 40 and Gibbs has 32. The result has been the two players tied for fourth in the league with 11 total touchdowns. The point here is that Gibbs is getting very similar opportunity to score, and has been just as effective (if not more).

Gibbs has at least one touchdown in eight of 11 games this season, and has scored in each of the Lions’ last two games. He will now face a Bears defense that allows the seventh-most yards per rush attempt, and given up 12 touchdowns on the ground. Chicago has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in three of their last four games, with the Patriots being the only team not to score one against them in that timeframe.

I like the Lions offense to roll in this one, and I believe we’ll see both of their RBs find the endzone. But I like the price on Gibbs better, especially with Montgomery potentially nursing an injury he sustained last week.

With the other sportsbooks listing Gibbs even shorter, I wouldn’t be surprised if these odds change before you get to read this. If that is the case, just know I wouldn’t bet this any shorter than -190.

  • Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-163 at bet365)
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Malik Nabers

When I was first looking at this game, I was not very enthusiastic about picking an anytime TD scorer, as I don’t trust either of these offenses. My original thought was going to be Rico Dowdle, but I don’t like the near-even money odds on a running back who has scored three total TDs in ten games.

However, with it now sounding like Tommy DeVito will not be able to start at QB for the Giants, and we will get a Drew Lock start, I have warmed up to Giants pass-catchers. To be clear, I am not suggesting Lock is going to ignite some great Giants passing attack. I am just saying that I believe he is far better than DeVito. I, like many others, believe DeVito was installed as the starter for one reason: to ensure the Giants didn’t win games, protecting a nice early pick in the first round for them to select their franchise QB.

I think Lock is going to offer a pretty similar output to what Daniel Jones did, and potentially even a little better with his stronger arm and more aggressive playing style. With that in mind, I like Malik Nabers to score a touchdown against a Cowboys defense that allows the second-most net yards per pass attempt. Nabers lit this Dallas secondary up in Week 4 with 115 receiving yards before having to leave the game with a concussion.

The rookie receiver is the focal point of this lousy Giants offense, and I believe we’ll see Lock do everything in his power to get him the ball early and often.

  • Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+240 at BetMGM)
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Jonnu Smith

It’s not that Jonnu Smith wasn’t being used at all in the Dolphins offense prior to Week 11, but something has changed over the last two weeks. Smith was averaging 38.6 receiving yards per game through the first ten weeks of the season, but has now posted 87 and 101 yards, respectively, in his last two games. These haven’t just been the result of big plays either. In the first ten weeks, Smith’s high for targets was eight, but he saw six or fewer targets in six of those nine games. He has seen eight and 11 targets, respectively, in his last two games.

It feels the Dolphins have finally unlocked Smith and are taking advantage of his excellent YAC skills. The tight end has scored three touchdowns over the last two games, and has either been the team-leader or tied for team-lead in targets in both of those games.

With the success Miami has had using Smith more in the offense, I like it to continue in Week 13 when they take on a tough Packers defense at Lambeau. I suspect Green Bay will look to focus on limiting Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane, though, leaving opportunities for Smith. At +250 odds to score a TD, I couldn’t look away from Smith.

  • Pick: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+250 at bet365)

DeAndre Hopkins

When the Chiefs played the Raiders in Week 8, we saw Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy score Kansas City’s touchdowns. However, it sounds like Isiah Pacheco is going to make his return to the lineup, and we will see a combo of him and Hunt in the backfield. So, I’m avoiding the Chiefs RB situation for now while we wait to see how it plays out.

Instead, I am going to back DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown in the Chiefs’ second meeting with the Raiders. Hopkins was playing in his first game with the Chiefs when these teams met the first time, and he recorded two catches for 29 yards on three targets. It was a bit of a soft launch for Hopkins in this offense. In the four games since, the veteran wide receiver has scored three touchdowns and received at least six targets in two of those games.

I like Hopkins to take advantage of a not-so-great Raiders secondary that has allowed 20 touchdowns through the air this season. Regardless of who starts at QB for the Raiders – because I think one option could keep this game competitive and the other will not – I don’t think Kansas City has the luxury of taking their foot off the gas right now. They need to be treating every game as a “get right” opportunity after losing to the Bills two weeks ago, and nearly losing to the Panthers last week.

  • Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD (+220 at Caesars)
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Tee Higgins

When Tee Higgins has been on the field this season, he has been good. The problem is he has only been on the field for six of Cincinnati’s 11 games to this point. Looking to those six games, Higgins has seen double-digit targets in three of them, with his season-low being six, and he has scored at least one touchdown in three of them – he has four total TDs, though. Higgins found the endzone in each of his last two games before suffering his latest setback that saw him miss last week’s game.

But the 25-year-old is healthy again and returning in Week 13 to help his Bengals take on the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense has been very good this season, but we did see Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense has some success through the air against them back in Week 5. I think Joe Burrow can operate a similar style of quick-game on Sunday, and suspect Higgins will be a big part of it.

With a lot of attention likely to be given to Ja’Marr Chase, I like Higgins to score another TD on Sunday.

  • Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+145 at Caesars)

Anthony Richardson

Since regaining the starting role in Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson is looking much closer to the QB many were very excited about last year. He he been much more accurate with the football, and (more relevant to this article) is being asked to run the ball more than he was earlier this season.

In Richardson’s first six games, he only had one game where he carried the football more than eight times, and just one rushing touchdown. He has recorded ten rushing attempts in each of his two starts since taking back over, and has two touchdowns in those games – both came against the Jets two weeks ago.

What’s even more encouraging is that both of those recent games came against pretty good defenses in the Jets and Lions. Richardson will see an average-at-best defense when he takes on the Patriots in Week 13. New England allows touchdowns on 59.5% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which is similar to the Jets’ 59% (where he scored two TDs), whereas the Lions only allow TDs on 40% of those drives, the second-best mark in the league.

New England is going to sellout to stop the run when Indianapolis gets close to the goal line, and I expect Shane Steichen to give his big QB at least a couple opportunities down there.

  • Pick: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD (+160 at Caesars)

Nico Collins

I’m coming back to Nico Collins this week, after he was one of few players who came through for me last week. Collins was eased back into action in his first game back from injury in Week 11, but it was back to the Collins show last week.

The star WR played 79% of Houston’s offensive snaps last week, saw a team-high nine targets, and turned that into a team-high 92 receiving yards with a touchdown. Collins has now scored a touchdown in four of seven games this season, and will be taking on a Jaguars secondary that ranks last in passing yards allowed, passing TDs allowed, and net yards allowed per pass attempt.

Houston needs to bounce back from their loss to the Titans last week, and specifically get things right with CJ Stroud as they continue their playoff push. I believe the key to unlocking Stroud is throwing the ball to Collins more. As long as the big WR sees some targets against this awful Jags defense, I like him to get into the endzone.

  • Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)

Cooper Kupp

Matthew Stafford loves throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp, and because of that, I love betting Cooper Kupp to score touchdowns when sportsbooks give me longer than +120 odds. In this case, Caesars is giving me +130, which I think is great value.

Kupp has proven that there is a solid role for him in this Rams offense even when Puka Nacua is healthy. Nacua has seen more targets than Kupp in two of their last three games, but the latter is the one who keeps finding the endzone. Kupp has scored a TD in four of seven games this season, and has three total TDs over his last two. Nacua only has one touchdown this season.

I think Kupp will make it three straight games with a TD when the Rams take on the Saints in Week 13. New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt, and just gave up 395 passing yards to Jameis Winston before going on bye last week. I like Stafford to have a big game, and in turn, Cooper Kupp to benefit, finding the endzone at least once.

  • Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+130 at Caesars)

Bucky Irving

The leader of the Buccaneers backfield is still a little murky, as both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White continue to see a similar number of carries. But Irving has seen nine more touches than White over Tampa Bay’s last three games, and he is clearly the more effective back with the ball in his hands.

Irving is averaging 5.9 yards per touch compared to White’s 5.0. There is a bigger discrepancy in yards per rush attempt, though, as Irving averages 5.4 YPC versus White’s 3.7. Touchdowns is one of the few stats where White currently has a lead, as he has scored six TDs against Irving’s five.

White has a touchdown in each of his last five games, but Irving also has a touchdown in each of his last two, and four of his last six. I believe this backfield is going to continue trending towards Irving as the leader, and I love the +120 odds we are getting on him to score a touchdown at bet365. The Bucs take on the Panthers in Week 13, who have allowed more points than any other team in the NFL, and 17 of the TDs they have surrendered have been on the ground.

  • Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+120 at bet365)

AJ Brown

Of the 35 offensive touchdowns the Eagles have scored this season, 23 of them have been scored by either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts, and 22 of them have been rushing TDs. So, why am I betting AJ Brown to score a touchdown for the Eagles this week then? Because Philadelphia will take on the Baltimore Ravens, who are the best defense in the league against the run.

Baltimore only allows 3.5 yards per rush attempt, and they have only given up nine touchdowns on the ground. The Ravens pass defense, on the other hand, has not been good. Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL, and have seen 22 touchdowns scored against them through the air.

I am not saying Jalen Hurts and/or Saquon Barkley will be completely stopped or held out of the endzone, but I do believe it will be in Philadelphia’s best interest to utilize AJ Brown in this game. Brown has scored a touchdown in four of eight games this season, and just snapped a four-game touchdown drought last week. I like him to get a TD in his second straight game.

  • Pick: AJ Brown Anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)

James Cook

James Cook has been fantastic for the Bills this season, scoring at least one touchdown in seven of ten games, and has a team-high 11 touchdowns this season – Josh Allen is second on the team with five.

At the time of writing this article, Nick Bosa had not practiced yet, and was not looking like he will play on Sunday night. If he does end up playing, I like this bet a little less, but still believe there is value. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per carry this season, but last week proved that Bosa is a big part of San Francisco’s ability to stop the run. Without Bosa last week, the 49ers allowed the Packers to run for 169 yards, which is tied for the second-highest total they have allowed this season.

Even if Bosa does play, though, San Francisco has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season. I like Cook to add another one to that total on Sunday night.

Most other sportsbooks have Cook at -140 or shorter. If bet365 shortens their odds before you get to bet this, I would not bet him at odds any shorter than -130.

  • Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

Courtland Sutton

As Bo Nix has continued to get comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense, Courtland Sutton has been the biggest beneficiary. The veteran wide receiver has now seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games, and he has scored a touchdown in two of his last three – he has three total TDs in that timeframe, though.

Sutton is the go-to receiver for Nix regardless of where they are on the field, but especially so in the red zone. Nix has fed Sutton 17 targets in the red zone, which is second in the NFL, only trailing Ja’Marr Chase by one target.

As the Broncos prepare to take on a Browns defense that hasn’t been very good against the run or pass this season, I like Courtland Sutton to stay hot and find the endzone for a second straight game.

  • Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+185 at Caesars)
Matt McEwan
Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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