The Best Anytime Touchdown Picks & Player Props for Falcons vs Packers (Sep 24)
By Blair Johnson in NFL News
Published:
The Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field on September 24 with kickoff set for 8:15 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video. There are plenty of angles to parse in this Thursday night matchup. From the return of Michael Penix Jr under center for Atlanta to Jordan Love directing Green Bay’s dynamic passing attack, dissecting the player props requires a sharp look at recent performance.
Finding an edge means digging into the statistical weeds. Here are my top touchdown picks and player props to target in the Week 3 TNF odds.
Falcons vs Packers Anytime TD Odds & Picks
Christian Watson’s anytime touchdown scorer line at plus-money feels like a gift given the defensive matchup. Atlanta’s defense is allowing 27.0 points per game while surrendering 254 gross passing yards per contest through two weeks. That combination of volume and scoring frequency creates a favorable environment for Green Bay’s big-play wideout.
Even better? Polymarket lists Watson 1+ TD at just 36 cents, equal to +178 American odds.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+178, Polymarket)
Watson’s red zone deployment under Matt LaFleur is unmatched among Packers skill players. Through the first two weeks of 2026, Watson has already hauled in 3 touchdowns (scoring in both Week 1 and Week 2) while commanding a team-best 40% of Green Bay’s end-zone targets. Dating back to the second half of 2025, Watson has scored 6 touchdowns across his last 6 games. Atlanta has surrendered 4 passing touchdowns inside the 20-yard line over the first two weeks, giving Watson tremendous high-leverage equity to find paydirt at juicy +178 odds.
Watson has struggled in some recent spots as a small favorite — failing to exceed 64.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games when favored by less than a touchdown — but the anytime TD equity remains separate from the yardage floor. He only needs one trip to the end zone to cash this ticket, and the Falcons’ porous secondary should provide opportunities.
Best Player Props to Bet in Falcons vs Packers
When playing away from home, Falcons star Bijan Robinson consistently clears high rushing totals. He has exceeded 78.5 rushing yards in three of his last four games on the road.
Bijan Robinson 80+ Rushing Yards (+108 at Kalshi)
Robinson boasts a 98.5 rushing yards per game average in those away splits, pointing to a heavy workload out of the backfield. Atlanta currently averages 30:48 of possession time per game. That provides ample clock to feed the run and win the field position battle.
Robinson’s pure rushing volume remains elite, averaging 18.5 carries per game to start 2026 after surpassing 20 carries in his Week 1 road outing. Green Bay’s defensive front has exhibited vulnerabilities against outside-zone rushing schemes, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing lead backs. Robinson ranks top-five in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (3.65) and missed tackles forced.
With Atlanta aiming to establish tempo and keep Jordan Love off the field in a hostile Lambeau environment, Robinson is positioned for 18 to 22 touches, making plus-money value on an 80-yard ceiling an exceptional wager. I love backing his rushing volume in this spot.
Drake London Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Following a team setback, the Atlanta wideout consistently bounces back with heavy production. Drake London has exceeded 62.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games after a loss, maintaining a 100.4 receiving yards per game average in that split. Green Bay allows 262.0 total net yards per contest. That leaves adequate offensive airspace for London to accumulate targets and clear this line.
Atlanta’s offensive scheme funnels its passing attack directly through London, who commands a team-high 28.5% target share and an average depth of target (aDOT) exceeding 10.5 yards. In trailing scripts on the road, Atlanta leans on quick-hitting intermediate routes where London thrives after the catch.
Facing a Green Bay perimeter defense that plays predominantly single-high zone coverage—against which London posted a robust 2.34 yards per route run last season—he is primed to see 8+ high-value targets. That concentrated workload provides a remarkably stable floor to eclipse this 63.5-yard threshold. Having Penix Jr back under center adds another boost to London’s projections; the third-year QB represents a sizable improvement over third-stringer Cooper Rush.
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Tucker Kraft Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-111, BetMGM)
The Packers tight end consistently thrives under the prime-time spotlight. Tucker Kraft has exceeded 45.5 receiving yards in at least his last 4 games in primetime. His 96.5 receiving yards per game average in primetime nearly doubles the prop total required tonight, making this line firmly within my projected range.
Kraft has developed into one of Jordan Love’s go-to security blankets and seam stretchers in high-leverage standalone spots. Over his last three primetime appearances, Kraft erupted for stat lines of 143 yards (vs. PIT), 56 yards (vs. DAL), and 124 yards (vs. WAS), averaging 18.3 yards per reception in those national TV windows. Furthermore, the Falcons’ pass defense has historically funneled targets toward the middle of the field, surrendering top-10 target volume and a 74.2% completion rate to opposing tight ends. At just 43.5 yards, Kraft needs only 3 to 4 receptions to clear this mark with ease.
Given the offensive scheme and his quarterback’s reliability, I am backing this over.
Sports Writer
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
