Best Bets & Anytime TD Picks for Packers vs Buccaneers (Oct 4)
By Juan Pablo Aravena in NFL News
Published:
- The Packers vs Buccaneers will collide Sunday in Tampa Bay in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season
- My Packers vs Buccaneers picks include the visitors covering the spread in a low-scoring game
- Read my Packers vs Buccaneers prediction for all my picks, best bets and analysis
The Green Bay Packers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) travel south to face the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. The defining storyline: Baker Mayfield is sidelined, leaving undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels to make his first career start at quarterback for Tampa Bay.
Green Bay enters seeking offensive consistency after an up-and-down opening stretch. Tampa Bay must not only end its three-game slide but do so with a first-time starter facing a Packers team that has produced 800 passing yards through three games.
I am breaking down this matchup to find the best sports betting picks on the board.
Packers vs Buccaneers Predictions & Best Bets
When I evaluate the statistical profiles of both teams, distinct advantages emerge that point toward the road favorite.
Against the Spread Pick: Packers -3.5 (+104/49¢ at Kalshi)
Green Bay boasts a major aerial advantage in this contest, amassing 844 passing yards (800 net passing yards after sacks) on the season compared to just 615 gross (555 net) for the Buccaneers. That gap becomes especially significant with Baker Mayfield sidelined: undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, out of Kansas, is set to make his first career start for Tampa Bay.
The Packers also possess a distinct edge in ball security, committing only four giveaways (two interceptions and two lost fumbles) compared with Tampa Bay’s seven turnovers through three games.
Green Bay’s advantage through the air and in red-zone finishing (41.7% with 5 touchdowns on 12 trips vs. Tampa Bay’s 30.0% with 3 touchdowns on 10 trips) firmly supports the road-favorite case. But the quarterback change is the central matchup variable: Daniels will be making his NFL debut against a defense that can capitalize on mistakes, especially after Tampa Bay coughed up four giveaways in their Week 1 opener.
I am backing Green Bay to cover the short number.
Game-Total Pick: Under 39.5 (+100/50¢ at Polymarket)
Both of these offenses struggle significantly with situational execution on late downs, making points a premium. According to the season data, Green Bay converts just 27.8% of its third-down attempts (10-of-36), including a brutal 1-for-9 showing in Week 2, while Tampa Bay is barely better at 32.6% (14-of-43) after going 2-for-17 on third downs against Minnesota in Week 3.
Tampa Bay’s challenge is magnified by Mayfield’s absence: rookie Jalon Daniels will be making his first career start, adding uncertainty to an offense already struggling to sustain drives and manage game pace.
The Buccaneers notoriously sputter inside the 20-yard line, capitalizing on just 3 of their 10 red zone attempts (30.0%) for touchdowns. With drives routinely stalling for both units, an anemic combined third-down rate, and Tampa Bay turning to an unproven first-time starter under center, expecting 40 or more total points feels overly optimistic.
Packers vs Buccaneers Player Props: Jordan Love Over 247.5 Passing Yards (+105 at BetMGM)
Green Bay’s offensive identity in 2026 is almost entirely pass-reliant, piling up 844 passing yards versus a meager 146 rushing yards (48.7 rushing YPG) across their first three games. Jordan Love is averaging 41.3 pass attempts per game and has already eclipsed this line with ease in two of three starts, throwing for 387 yards on 42 attempts in Week 1 at Minnesota and 312 yards on 53 attempts in Week 3 against Atlanta.
Finding plus-money odds on a passing total that aligns perfectly with the team’s high-volume aerial attack presents excellent betting value.
Packers vs Buccaneers Anytime TD Pick: Bucky Irving (+186/35¢ at Kalshi)
For my anytime touchdown pick, I am targeting the home underdog’s backfield. Bucky Irving presents intriguing value to find the end zone against a vulnerable defensive front that has been gashed near the goal line. Through three weeks, Irving has commanded 40 carries for 180 yards alongside 13 receptions on 15 targets, dominating backfield touches and already punching in a rushing touchdown in Week 1 at Cincinnati.
The Packers surrender 30.3 points per game and allow opponents to convert a staggering 83.3% of their red zone trips (10 touchdowns on 12 trips) into touchdowns, ranking among the worst red-zone defenses in football while allowing 138.7 rushing yards per contest.
With Tampa Bay expected to lean on Irving’s dual-threat versatility to ease the burden on rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels, getting a price of 35¢ at Kalshi (+186 implied odds) gives you an excellent bite at the apple near the goal line.
Packers vs Buccaneers Public Betting Splits
Analyzing where the money is flowing provides valuable context before finalizing your wagers. Here is a breakdown of the current handle across the primary betting markets for this NFC matchup when looking at the NFL public betting splits:
- Spread Money: 58.36% on Green Bay / 41.64% on Tampa Bay
- Moneyline Money: 73.53% on Green Bay / 26.47% on Tampa Bay
- Total Money: 54.98% on the Under / 45.02% on the Over
My official predictions are in full agreement with the money distribution. I am backing the Packers to cover the spread, which mirrors the 58.36% of the handle supporting Green Bay. Furthermore, my Under 39 prediction aligns with the 54.98% of the money backing a lower-scoring affair as both offenses struggle to convert on third down.
Packers vs Buccaneers Odds
Odds as of October 3 from BetMGM. Claim your BetMGM bonus code now
The visiting Packers enter this conference clash as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. With the total points line set at a relatively low 39, oddsmakers project a tighter, defensive-leaning contest at Raymond James Stadium. Check the latest NFL odds before kickoff to monitor line movement.
When removing the sportsbook’s vigorish from the moneyline odds, the normalized probabilities show Green Bay with a 62.5% implied chance of securing the road victory. The home underdog Buccaneers carry a 37.5% vig-free probability of pulling off the outright upset.
Packers vs Buccaneers Team Stats
Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction
When analyzing the offense vs defense matchups, a few critical discrepancies emerge that could dictate the flow of the game.
Green Bay generates an impressive 281.33 passing yards per game at 6.81 yards per attempt, while producing just 48.67 rushing yards per contest on 3.04 yards per carry. This means the ball is almost always in the hands of quarterback Jordan Love. He faces a capable Tampa Bay defense that holds opponents to 282.67 total yards and 206.67 passing yards per game. Oddsmakers expect Love to maintain his volume, offering his passing yardage prop at Over 247.5 (+105).
Tampa Bay features a balanced attack, averaging 205.00 passing yards and 94.33 rushing yards per game. Those season averages, however, predate the most important personnel change in this matchup: Baker Mayfield is out, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is making his first career start. That makes the Buccaneers’ offensive output harder to project against a Green Bay defense allowing 30.33 points and 340.67 total yards per game.
Green Bay’s defense allows opponents to convert 50.00% of their third downs and an abysmal 83.33% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. This represents a significant opportunity for Tampa Bay—especially if Bucky Irving can help Daniels with a ground-based attack. Wideout Chris Godwin Jr is also listed with an Over 27.5 receiving yards (-111) prop.
Furthermore, with Green Bay’s front seven struggling to get off the field, Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving could have plenty of room to operate between the tackles. His rushing total is currently posted at Over 54.5 yards (-115).
Juan Pablo is a sports writer and betting analyst with over 15 years' experience in the industry. He is an expert in European and Latin American soccer, as well as NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL, college sports, and EuroLeague. He was born and raised in Chile and is fluent in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.
