Best Bills vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay for TNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 16, 2023 at 1:26 pm EDTPublished:
- Don’t miss our Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Can the Pats cover 7.5 points? Will Mac Jones eclipse 219.5 passing yards?
- Our Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay picks are below, along with the reasoning behind them
Not every Thursday Night Football matchup is a hit, but it looks like the schedule makers got it right in Week 13.
The Patriots (6-5, 3-2 home) host the Bills (8-3, 4-2 away) in a matchup with playoff implications for both teams.
Like every TNF game this season, we’ve built a same-game parlay for everyone to tail, and tonight’s is bullish on New England, as well as Mac Jones.
Bills vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots +7.5 | -210 |
| Mac Jones Over 219.5 Passing Yards | -140 |
| Over 36.5 Points | -275 |
| PARLAY ODDS | Â +225 |
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Our Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay features only three legs, but pays out +225 odds if it hits. As an added bonus, if you bet this SGP at DraftKings Sportsbook you can get a profit boost of up to 100% making the odds even juicier in your favor.
New England Patriots +7.5
As noted in the Bills vs Patriots public betting splits, sharp money pounded New England as 5.5-point underdogs when opening odds for this game were first released.
The line has since dropped to Buffalo -3.5, and while there are still plenty of reasons to back the Pats against the spread, we’re going to give ourselves some cushion in this SGP by targeting New England at +7.5.
Buffalo is going to be down key pieces per the Bills vs Patriots injury report, including stud pass rusher Von Miller and left tackle Dion Dawkins. Buffalo is already down their starting center Mitch Morse, and this offensive line isn’t very good to begin with. New England meanwhile, ranks second in defense per DVOA and in pressure rate.
The #Bills have ruled out LT Dion Dawkins (ankle) and OLB Von Miller (knee) for tomorrow night's game vs. the #Patriots.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 30, 2022
Offensively, the Pats showcased their upside in a hard-fought loss at Minnesota last week and should be able to find success against a beat-up Bills defense. Buffalo has allowed an average of 26 points per outing over their last three outings.
After starting the season with a 14.8-point average margin of victory through six weeks, the Bills’ average margin of victory over the last five games is just 3 points.
Mac Jones Over 219.5 Passing Yards
The upside that was flashed last week by the Pats’ offense was largely thanks to Jones. The sophomore QB threw for a career-high 382 yards and two scores versus the Vikings and deserved a better fate than to lose.
Mac Jones vs Vikings – Week 12
| CMP-ATT | YDS | TD | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28-39 | 382 | 2 | 119.8 |
Jones is averaging 314 passing yards over his past two games and has cleared 219.5 yards in four of his past six starts that he started and finished. He also eclipsed this number in his last meeting with the Bills last season and should have plenty of time to throw now that Miller isn’t wreaking havoc on the New England offensive line.
Also working in favor of a strong Jones performance is the absences in the Buffalo secondary. The Bills are down a starting safety (Micah Hyde) and corner (Kaiir Elam). Fire up Jones in the Bills vs Patriots player props.
Over 36.5 Points
Everyone remembers when these two teams played to a 14-10 decision last year in Buffalo in gale-force winds. While the weather looks perfect in Foxborough tonight, and the rash of injuries on the Bills’ side is going to put them behind the eight ball on defense against Jones and Co.
MAC JONES IS DEALING. pic.twitter.com/9pMHkLFmKN
— Pierce Downey (@patsdowney) November 25, 2022
On offense, Buffalo is still a nightmare to face. They rank sixth on that side of the ball per DVOA, third in points per game, and second in total offense.
They’ve scored 80 points in their last two games versus New England per the Bills vs Patriots picks, with each of those contests sailing over the total. Much like the first leg of our SGP, we’re taking a much more favorable line at over 36.5, a number that all 11 Buffalo games have exceeded.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
