NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Bills vs Patriots Thursday Night Football
- 78% of the against the spread tickets are on Buffalo in the Bills vs Patriots public betting splits ahead of Thursday Night Football
- Over 43.5 is also a popular bet, drawing 71% of the over/under tickets
- A comprehensive breakdown of the Bills vs Patriots public betting splits is listed below
AFC East rivals clash tonight on Thursday Night Football, as the Patriots (6-5, 3-2 home) host the Bills (8-3, 4-2 away). Buffalo can take over sole possession of the division lead with a victory, while a win for New England would move them inside the AFC playoff picture.
This game has seen major line movement since opening odds were released, which has forced online sportsbooks to re-evaluate. Sharps hit the spread hard when the line initially came out, but now that it’s been bet down 2 points, Bills’ money is coming in hot per the NFL public betting trends.
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Bills vs Patriots ATS Betting Splits
Buffalo is currently a -3.5 point favorite on TNF after opening at -5.5. At the new number, the public is all over the Bills, ignoring their recent trend of underperforming against the number.
As of early Thursday afternoon, Buffalo is drawing 78% of the ATS tickets and 71% of the spread handle. The Bills have failed to cover in five straight games as pointed out in the Bills vs Patriots picks, after starting the season 4-2 against the spread.
They had an average margin of victory of 14.8 points during the first six weeks of the year, but since coming off bye it’s been a different story. Over the last five games, they’re 3-2 with just a +3 point average point differential per contest.
Josh Allen’s nagging elbow injury has been part of the reason for the regression. He’ll play tonight despite his questionable tag in the Bills vs Patriots injury report, however, Buffalo will still be missing key pieces on defense.
Josh Allen is 5-2-1 ATS vs. Bill Belichick.
Eli Manning (5-0 ATS) is only other QB with as many ATS wins against Belichick. pic.twitter.com/hSJBfqyKff
— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 1, 2022
On the bright side, Allen has historically owned Bill Belichick and Co. going 5-2-1 ATS against the Pats in eight career meetings. He’s also 10-4 against the spread in 14 career prime time starts.
New England on the other hand, had its three-game winning streak versus the spread snapped on Thanksgiving. The Pats dropped a 7-point decision to the Vikings, in a game they easily could have won.
New England has a solid track record of bouncing back in these spots, however, as they’re 7-2-1 ATS after a loss since the start of 2021. Season-long trends are also in their favor in a big way. Underdogs are 94-75-6 ATS this season.
Buffalo vs New England Total Betting Splits
When it comes to the total, over 43.5 is drawing the majority of the action. The line actually opened 1.5 points higher but was bet down earlier in the week. Where it currently stands, the over is drawing 71% of the over/under bets and 69% of all money wagered on the total.
Unders have cashed at a strong clip this season, going 100-78-2 overall. Betting the under in every primetime game this year would result in a 20-17 record, however, it’s important to note that the over has hit in six straight games under the lights over the past two weeks.
NFL Top-5 Under Teams
| Team | Under Record | Under % | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10-1 | 90.9% | -10.1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-2 | 81.8% | -7.9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9-3 | 75.0% | -6.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8-3 | 72.7% | -5.3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-3 | 72.7% | -3.5 |
Buffalo is 8-3 to the under this season, which is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of under games. All six of their road contests have failed to clear the total, while the under is 6-5 in New England games this season.
The Pats run the ball at the league’s 12th highest rate, and an abundance of rushing plays chew up the clock working in favor of the under.
However, Mac Jones flashed some serious upside last week at Minnesota, throwing for a season-high 382 yards. He’s featured in the Bills vs Patriots player props, and his recent performance could entice more passing volume for New England.
Bills vs Patriots Moneyline Betting Splits
As far as the moneyline market goes, it’s completely one-sided. Buffalo is drawing 84% of the bets and 86% of the handle as -190 favorites.
The Bills have won four of the past five meetings between these two teams, while Allen sports an 11-3 straight-up record in primetime. The lone New England victory during that stretch was in a game with gale-force winds, but the weather looks fine tonight. In their two more recent victories over the Pats, Buffalo has outscored them 80-38.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
