Newcastle vs Everton Expert Predictions & Goalscorer Picks
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- Newcastle vs Everton Under 2.5 Goals (+127 via Kalshi) is my top betting pick
- Everton +0.5 (-144 via Novig) is my handicap pick against Newcastle
- Harvey Barnes (+230 via BetMGM) is my anytime goalscorer pick
Newcastle United (3-2-3, 11 points, -2 GD) hosts Everton (2-4-2, 10 points, -1 GD) in a closely contested Premier League matchup at 3:00 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, at St. James’ Park. With just one point separating the teams in the standings, both sides will be looking to find consistency and move into the top half of the table.
Newcastle will be without striker William Osula, who is set to miss his first match due to injury. Everton also has a significant absence, with playmaker Jack Grealish ruled out ahead of the contest.
With important attacking players unavailable on both sides, this matchup could be a tightly contested affair. Can Harvey Barnes provide the attacking spark Newcastle needs, or will Everton find opportunities on the counterattack? I’ll break down the matchup, examine the key statistics, and identify the best +EV betting opportunities.
Newcastle vs Everton Odds
Odds as of November 1, 2026, at 8:43 PM ET from theScore Bet.
Newcastle is a slight home favorite at +125, while Everton is priced at +190 to pull off the upset. A draw is available at +270, reflecting the relatively even matchup between the two Premier League sides.
After removing the sportsbook’s vig, Newcastle has a 41.9% implied probability of winning. Everton’s vig-free probability stands at 32.5%, while the draw accounts for the remaining 25.5%.
A $10 bet on Newcastle at +125 would return $22.50, including the original stake. The same wager on Everton at +190 would pay out $29.00.
The opening handicap was set at Newcastle -0.5 (+115), with Everton receiving +0.5 (-169). Those prices have since shifted, with Everton moving to -164 and Newcastle to +125. The total opened at 2.5 goals, with the Over priced at -159 and the Under at +110. The current prices have moved to -145 for the Over and +115 for the Under, indicating a slight shift toward the lower-scoring outcome.
For future betting markets, check out our dedicated page for English Premier League futures odds.
Newcastle vs Everton Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
I have identified three picks I like for Monday’s Premier League matchup, starting with a bet on a relatively low-scoring game.
Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+127 via Kalshi)
I’m backing Under 2.5 goals as my top +EV play. Kalshi currently prices the “No” outcome on Over 2.5 goals at 44%, equivalent to +127 American odds. This represents an attractive price compared to traditional sportsbooks. Everton has been solid defensively but less productive in attack. Through eight matches, the Toffees have scored eight goals and conceded nine, averaging just 2.13 total goals per game.
Newcastle’s matches have been slightly more open, but its attacking numbers suggest the team could struggle to maintain its scoring output. Despite scoring 12 goals, the Magpies have recorded just 25 shots on target all season, averaging 3.12 per game. Against an Everton defense that has conceded only two first-half goals, I expect a closely contested match with limited scoring opportunities. That makes the Under 2.5 an appealing option.
Handicap Pick: Everton +0.5 Goals (-144 via Novig)
My second pick is Everton +0.5, which is equivalent to backing the visitors to win or draw. On prediction markets, the equivalent wager is “No” on Newcastle to win.
Everton’s defensive organization could give the visitors an advantage against a Newcastle side that has struggled to test opposing goalkeepers consistently. The Toffees have recorded 36 shots on target this season, compared to just 25 for the hosts.
Everton has also conceded only nine goals, while Newcastle has allowed 14. The Magpies have been particularly vulnerable in the first half, conceding seven goals before the break. Given Everton’s stronger defensive record and its recent head-to-head success against Newcastle, taking the visitors with a half-goal cushion offers an attractive betting opportunity.
Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Harvey Barnes 1+ Goal (+230 via BetMGM)
My anytime goalscorer pick is Harvey Barnes at +230 via BetMGM. Those odds imply a 30.3% probability of scoring at least once during the match. Although I expect a relatively low-scoring contest, Barnes offers an appealing price as one of Newcastle’s main attacking threats. At +230, he is an interesting option for bettors looking for value.
Claim the BetMGM bonus code before locking in Barnes to score.
Newcastle vs Everton Recent Head-to-Head Record
Everton has enjoyed the better results in recent meetings, winning four of the last six encounters, with one draw and one Newcastle victory. That record provides additional support for backing the visitors on the +0.5 handicap.
Interestingly, Newcastle has generally controlled possession in these matchups, averaging 51.33% compared to Everton’s 32.00%. The Magpies have also generated more shots (13.50 to 8.67) and shots on target (5.33 to 3.33). However, Everton has been more effective in terms of results, scoring 11 goals compared to Newcastle’s eight. The visitors’ recent success despite having less possession makes them an interesting option to avoid defeat again.
Newcastle vs Everton Team Stats
The table above highlights each team’s key statistics this season, with Premier League rankings shown in brackets.
The numbers suggest Everton could frustrate a Newcastle side that has struggled to create scoring opportunities consistently. Newcastle has a slight advantage in possession (51.5% to 46.5%), but that has not translated into consistent attacking production.
The Magpies rank 18th in the Premier League with just 3.13 shots on target per game. Everton, meanwhile, ranks sixth, averaging 4.50 shots on target despite having less possession. The visitors also have a stronger defensive record, allowing just 1.13 goals per game, compared to Newcastle’s 1.75. Everton’s eighth-ranked defense could make life difficult for the hosts, further strengthening the case for a low-scoring contest.
Newcastle vs Everton Injury Updates
Both teams have important players unavailable heading into Monday’s matchup. These absences could affect their attacking options, defensive depth, and overall approach to the game.
Newcastle Injury Updates
William Osula (Out): Osula’s absence leaves Newcastle without an additional attacking option and could further limit its offensive production. His unavailability is another factor supporting the Under 2.5 goals pick.
Tino Livramento (Out): The fullback’s absence takes away an important option on the right flank, potentially limiting Newcastle’s width and attacking transitions.
Lewis Miley (Out): Miley remains unavailable, reducing Newcastle’s depth and flexibility in midfield.
Everton Injury Updates
Jack Grealish (Out): Grealish’s absence is a significant blow to Everton’s creativity and ability to carry the ball forward. Without him, the visitors could struggle to generate chances in open play.
Jarrad Branthwaite (Doubtful): The center-back is an important part of Everton’s defensive setup. If he is unavailable, his absence could weaken the visitors’ back line and make it harder to contain Newcastle’s attack.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
