Best NFL Props to Bet for Week 4 – Exploiting Lines That Don’t Match Production

• With three weeks in the books, we have a decent sample size for each player’s current opportunity to perform this season
• Recent player trends suggest sportsbooks are undervaluing certain players when setting Week 4 NFL player prop markets
• See the three NFL player props with the strongest statistical edge to go over in Week 4

After three weeks of the 2026 NFL season, there are a number of players whose opportunity – snap counts, target shares, looks etc. – on their respective teams has become quite clear. But since the majority of bettors are often focused on betting player prop markets for the household names, there are some secondary, or less popular, players who continue to slip through the cracks when sportsbooks are setting over/unders for NFL player prop markets.

I have identified three players who have consistently outperformed the betting lines that have been set for their Week 4 player props, and believe they are the three best NFL player props you could bet this week. Let’s dive in!

Best Week 4 NFL Props Picks – Strongest Statistical Edges

All three of my picks are NFL receiving yards props and involve players who are either secondary options, or, in the case of McConkey, reside in struggling offenses that aren’t getting much attention. These pass-catchers are all averaging far more receiving yards per game than the over/unders on their betting lines.

Not only can you bet these Week 4 NFL player props at sportsbooks, but prediction markets also offer trading on player props markets too. You can often find a better price for the bet you’re trying to make at prediction markets. You can check it out yourself after signing up at Kalshi.

Now let me present you with the stats that support the overs on all three of these picks.

Dontayvion Wicks Receiving Yards

Dontayvion Wicks has successfully beat out rookie Makai Lemon for the WR2 spot in Philadelphia, and is seeing extra opportunities in the passing game with TE Dallas Goedert out of the lineup – he projects to be out again in Week 4. Wicks is currently seeing a 77.8% snap share, which has led to 59.7 receiving yards per game this season, well above his 38.5 yard receiving line for Week 4. Here’s what that has looked like each week, since averages don’t tell the full story:

• Week 1 (vs WAS): 73 receiving yards
• Week 2 (at TEN): 74 receiving yards
• Week 3 (at CHI): 32 receiving yards

As you can see, he has gone over 38.5 receiving yards in two of three games, with last week being the lone under. The underlying metrics also paint a nice picture for Wicks’ new opportunity in Philadelphia. The wide receiver is seeing 70.7 air yards per game and a 17.7% target share, which peaked at 19.2% last week against the Bears.

Wicks is preparing for a Rams defense in Week 4 that is only allowing 174 gross passing yards per game and just 5.22 yards per passing attempt. While it’s not the most ideal situation to be taking passing/receiving props to go over, I do like the situation because of LA’s high-powered offense. I foresee the Eagles being forced to play with some urgency on offense, and put the ball in the air more than they typically would.

• Pick: Dontayvion Wicks Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards

Dalton Schultz is seeing a 20.7% target share in Houston, leading to 6.3 receptions and 68.3 receiving yards per game. While it is possible that Nico Collins returns to the lineup for Week 4, I don’t believe that means Schultz is no longer involved in the passing game. If anything, I think it opens things up for the tight end since there will be plenty of attention paid to Collins on the outside.

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However, I do need to disclose that Schultz’ season average is being driven by one good game in Week 2. Here are his game logs through the first three weeks:

• Week 1 (vs BUF): 35 receiving yards
• Week 2 (vs CIN): 140 receiving yards
• Week 3 (at IND): 30 receiving yards

He has only gone over 44.5 receiving yards once in three games, but the context of that game is important. The Texans were forced into a negative game script by the Bengals, as they trailed by a touchdown or more for most of the second half. Schultz saw 14 targets in that game. The Week 1 performance against the Bills is a lot more encouraging than the receiving yards suggest as well, since Schultz saw a whopping eight targets.

I like Dallas’ offense to make Houston play with that same urgency from Weeks 1 and 2, forcing the Texans to throw the ball often. When CJ Stroud is forced to put the ball in the air, one in five attempts heads Schultz’ way, and I like that to result in more than 44.5 receiving yards in Week 4.

• Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey Receiving Yards

There is no tougher test for a passing game than a matcnup with the Seahawks, who are allowing a league-low 152 gross passing yards per game. That’s part of why we’re seeing Ladd McConkey’s receiving over/under at a very low 45.5. But this is also the result of the Chargers offense being awful so far this season.

McConkey has still produced at a reasonable rate, though, especially when you consider he got injured in Week 1, which led to him playing less than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the first two weeks. It was encouraging to see him play 88.9% of the snaps against the Bills last week.

Still, the wide receiver is seeing a 17% target share, 69.3 air yards per game, and is turning the opportunity into 61 receiving yards per game. Here are his weekly performances so far:

• Week 1 (vs ARI): 82 receiving yards
• Week 2 (vs LV): 35 receiving yards
• Week 3 (at BUF): 66 receiving yards

McConkey has gone over 45.5 receiving yards in two of three games. His offense has been operating with a negative game script in all of those games, and I believe they will be again when they play a Seahawks team who is returning home after being upset as heavy favorites against the Commanders last week.

This is far from the season many believed McConkey would be enjoying with new OC Mike McDaniel calling the plays. But I don’t believe it is bad enough to see the Chargers’ WR1 with a receiving yards over/under as low as 45.5.

• Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 45.5 Receiving Yards

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