You Can Still Bet the Patriots to Win the AFC East: Should You?
- The New England Patriots are close to clinching their 15th division title in the last 16 years
- Some sportsbook still have odds for who will win the AFC East, even though it’s all but wrapped up
- Is there any sense to betting this future on either side?
There is never any value to betting the New England Patriots anymore.
At the start of the 2018 season, they were around -800 to win the AFC East, a division they have dominated for the last decade and a half.
Even after Week 3, when they were a whole two games back of the Miami Dolphins, they were around -300 favorites.
That’s why it’s so surprising they’re even still on the board in Week 16. Yes they haven’t mathematically locked up their 10th straight East banner, but as you can see from the odds, it’s all but certain.
Odds to win AFC East
| AFC East Futures | Odds |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -10000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +3300 |
Odds taken 12/19/18.
In order for Miami to end the Pats’ divisional dominance, they not only need to win out, but they need New England to lose their last two.
The Patriots are currently riding a two-game losing streak and doubling it would be a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2002.
| vs Buffalo Bills (5-9) | Week 16 Opponent | vs Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) |
| vs New York Jets (4-10) | Week 17 Opponent | @ Buffalo Bills (5-9) |
New England is a 13-point favorite against the Bills and if they need to win that Jets game, the line will be roughly the same. While at times this year, this wacky Dolphins squad has felt like a team of destiny that can defy the odds…
WHAT JUST HAPPENED!? The @MiamiDolphins score a MIRACLE Touchdown to beat the @Patriots ??? #NFL #Pats #Tannehill #Dolphins pic.twitter.com/g5Wwmc4Fek
— Telegraph Sport (@telegraph_sport) December 9, 2018
The fact is these future odds aren’t even good.
If you really believe Miami can complete this divisional comeback, then parlaying the necessary results this week (Buffalo and Miami moneyline) will pay out around +860.
Then, you can throw those winnings on a Week 17 parlay that should have similar odds, and a Miami miracle for the division would net you well over +7000.
So there’s no reason to play this if you’re drinking Dolphin Kool-Aid.
The Benefit of Betting the Patriots
Over the last decade, the only reason to bet New England to win the division in any season was to guarantee you had some cash left in your account come playoff time. Betting the Pats was boring as buying bonds, with almost the exact same return.
You put $100 on the Pats in September and you knew come January, no matter how terrible the rest of your football picks were, you’d have a hundred and change coming your way at playoff time. The only reason to play the Pats now is the same motivation: protect your money from yourself and gain a little interest.
So if, like me, you got your ass kicked last week by the Rams and Seahawks in Week 15, and are a little gun shy about betting Week 16, throwing a couple hundred on the Pats will mean that is funds you can’t lose when the Buccaneers somehow rout the Cowboys this week.
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
