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Best Bills vs Lions Same-Game Parlay for Thanksgiving TNF

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Nov 24, 2022 · 6:37 AM PST

Josh Allen uncorks a throw versus the Vikings
Nov 13, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
  • Check out this Bills vs Lions same-game parlay for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day contest
  • Will Josh Allen throw for 250 yards? Can Gabe Davis put up at least 55 receiving yards?
  • Don’t miss our Bills vs Lions same-game parlay picks below.

Thanksgiving means two things. Turkey and football. You can stick the bird in the oven Thursday morning, and sit back and sweat the Bills vs Lions contest, one of three games on the turkey day slate.

This showdown features a whopping 54.5 point total, the highest of any Week 12 game. Oddsmakers are banking on both of these top-six offenses to be efficient from the jump, and we’re looking to take a stand on the Buffalo passing game in our Bills vs Lions same-game parlay.

Bills vs Lions Same-Game Parlay

Pick Odds
Josh Allen Over 249.5 Passing Yards -240
Gabe Davis Over 54.5 Receiving Yards -130
Devin Singletary Under 64.5 Rushing Yards -150
Detroit Lions +11.5 -150

Odds as of November 23rd at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code where you can get a profit boost of up to 100% on any SGP in Week 12.

Our Buffalo vs Detroit same-game parlay features four legs and pays out +350 odds if it hits. The first leg is a bet on Josh Allen’s arm, who is going to feast against this porous and banged-up Lions secondary.

Josh Allen Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Allen enters play ranked second in the NFL in passing yards. As noted in the Bills vs Lions player props, he’s struggled to put up big numbers against good pass defenses lately, but Detroit’s unit does not fall into that category.

Detroit ranks 23rd against the pass per DVOA and has coughed up the fourth most production to opposing QBs on a per-game basis. To make matters worse, last year’s first-round pick and top corner Jeff Okudah is out per the Bills vs Lions injury report, leaving a major hole in the Detroit secondary.

Allen has been dealing with an elbow injury over the past couple of weeks, but note he’s no longer wearing a brace which signals he’s ready to unleash one of the NFL’s biggest arms.

Gabe Davis Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Obviously, when Allen goes to the air Stefon Diggs will be his main target, but don’t sleep on Gabe Davis in this matchup. Davis runs more vertical routes than Diggs, and Detroit struggles to defend the deep pass.

Gabe Davis Stats – Last Six Games

5 7 68 28
6 10 93 22
2 5 33 18
2 7 35 29
3 6 74 34
3 6 171 98

They allow the sixth-best completion rate on 20+ yard throws, while Davis’ top five career games have seen him produce an average depth of target north of 15 yards.

He’s seen 17 targets in the past two weeks, racking up 161 receiving yards. Davis has cleared 55 yards in four of his past six outings, hauling in at least one 22+ yard reception in all but one of those contests.

Devin Singletary Under 64.5 Rushing Yards

The Bills are 9.5-point favorites which implies they’re likely to build a big lead and run out the clock. There are a pair of problems with that thesis though. Buffalo is one of the leaders in pass rate over expectation, while Detroit’s run defense has been very good versus opposing RBs lately.

The Lions just held Saquon Barkley, one of the league’s leading rushers, to 22 yards on 15 carries. Two weeks prior they limited the Packers’ run game, ranked fifth per DVOA, to just 4.2 yards per carry.

Singletary meanwhile, has cleared 64.5 rushing yards in only three of 10 games and lost 11 carries to rookie James Cook in last week’s win over the Browns.

Detroit Lions +11.5

This isn’t the same miserable Detroit team we’re subjected to each and every Thanksgiving. Dan Campbell has his men playing hard, and after a two-game rough patch in mid-October, the Lions are back to doing what they do best: covering spreads.

Detroit has won outright as an underdog in three consecutive weeks and is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Dating back to the start of last season, the Lions are 8-3 against the number when catching points at home, while the Bills have failed to cover as a favorite of 9 or more points twice in the last four weeks alone.

As pointed out in the Bills vs Lions picks, Detroit is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving Day games, but those teams weren’t nearly as talented as the one Buffalo will face today. That sentiment is reflected in the Bills vs Lions public betting splits, as Detroit is currently drawing 55% of the spread wagers.

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