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Bills vs Lions Props – Best Player Prop Bets for Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Nov 23, 2022 · 11:00 AM PST

Josh Allen gets set to throw
Nov 20, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) drops back to throw the ball during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
  • Bills vs Lions players props are live for the first game of the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader on Thursday
  • Can Josh Allen exceed 281.5 passing yards? Will Amon-Ra St. Brown fail to reach eight receptions?
  •  All the latest Bills vs Lions player props are listed below, along with our best bets

The Thursday Thanksgiving slate has got to be a top-five day on the NFL calendar. The games kickoff while the turkey’s in the oven, and by the time your feast is finally digested, you’ve sweated back-to-back-to-back NFL contests and bet many NFL Thanksgiving props.

This year’s Thanksgiving Day schedule is especially appetizing. It starts with the Bills-Lions showdown, which has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams rank inside the top-six in points per game, total offense and yards per play.

Josh Allen started out slowly versus Cleveland last week, but after a sizzling second half he should find success against this underwhelming Detroit secondary in his Bills vs Lions props.

Bills vs Lions Player Props

Quarterbacks Completions Passing Yards Passing TD
Josh Allen (BUF) 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 281.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +155 | Un -205)
Jared Goff (DET) 23.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 248.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150)
Running Backs Attempts Rush Yards Rush + Rec Yards
Devi Singletary (BUF) 13.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jamaal Williams (DET) 13.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) OFF
Wide Receivers + Tight Ends Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 6.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 89.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) OFF 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 37.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Amon-Ra St Brown (DET) 7.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un 19.5) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)

Allen’s over/under passing yards prop sits at 281.5 in the Bills vs Lions player props. That’s 33 yards more than Detroit’s Jared Goff, but there’s an argument to be made it’s not high enough.

Bills vs Lions Prop #1: Josh Allen Over 281.5 Yards Passing

Allen completed 81% of his passes in this same stadium last week versus the Browns in the second half of their 31-23 win. He averaged over 10 yards per attempt, a week after throwing for 330 yards against the Vikings.

After eclipsing 296 passing yards in five of Buffalo’s first six games, Allen’s numbers dipped in matchups with the Packers and Jets. Those two teams boast elite pass defenses, something that can’t be said about the Lions.

Detroit ranks 23rd versus the pass per DVOA and surrenders the fourth most production to enemy QBs on a per-game basis.

Pick: Josh Allen Over 281.5 Passing Yards (-115), 1 unit

Bills vs Lions Prop #2: Amon-Ra St Brown Under 7.5 Receptions

This is not a slight against St Brown, but rather a compliment to the Buffalo defense. St Brown is going to rack up catches, but expecting at least eight against one of the league’s best pass defenses is a stretch.

Buffalo ranks seventh per DVOA versus the pass and grades out 11th in coverage and third in pass rush productivity per Pro Football Focus.

Amon-Ra St Brown Stats – Last 5 Games

REC TGT YDS TD
7 8 76 0
8 11 119 0
4 9 55 0
7 10 69 0
1 1 4 0

St Brown has reached eight catches just once in his past seven games. The way the Lions’ run game was cooking last week (160 rush yards and 4 TD), Detroit is likely to deploy a run-heavy approach – at least early on.

Pick: Amon-Ra St Brown Under 7.5 Receptions (-150), 2 units

Bills vs Lions TD Props

Player Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Anytime TD
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +500 -165
Devin Singletary (BUF) +600 -125
Gabriel Davis (BUF) +800 +105
Josh Allen (BUF) +850 +110
Jamaal Williams (DET) +850 -110
Dawson Knox (BUF) +1100 +170
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +1300 +140
D’Andre Swift (DET) +1400 +155
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) +1400 +205
James Cook (BUF) +1500 +220
DJ Chark (DET) +2200 +290
Bills Defense +2500 +370
Kalif Raymond (DET) +2500 +350
Justin Jackson (DET) +2800 +370
Nyheim Hines (BUF) +2800 +475
Lions Defense +5000 +700
Jared Goff (DET) +5500 +900

As far as the anytime TD market goes, Stefon Diggs boasts the shortest odds to score followed by Devin Singletary. Jamaal Williams, fresh off a three-TD performance isn’t far behind, but we’re going to go a little further down the board for our target in our Bills vs Lions picks.

Bills vs Lions Prop #3: Dawson Knox Anytime TD

Buffalo has a team total of 32.5 points. That means online sportsbooks are expecting 4+ TD and Dawson Knox stands out as a value to score.

Knox has found the end zone twice in his past five games and is coming off a season-high seven-catch, 70-yard outing versus the Browns.

Detroit struggles badly to defend tight ends, having allowed the fifth most receiving yards to the position. They’ve coughed up 7 TDs to tight ends as well, which is more than any other team but Arizona.

Pick: Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+170), 1 unit

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