- The Buffalo Bills are 9.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Lions in their Thanksgiving Day game
- Buffalo is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in the last three games against Detroit
- The Lions are 2-0 SU and ATS facing the Bills on Thanksgiving Day
The Buffalo Bills (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS) are the favorites in the Super Bowl odds, but it’s the Detroit Lions (4-6, 6-4 ATS) who are the NFL’s hottest team.
Well, okay, hottest team might be a bit of a stretch, unless of course, you find yourself talking to Lions fans.
True, Detroit has won more games in the past two weeks (two) then Buffalo (one). On the other hand, Buffalo has won more games in Detroit (one) over that same time frame than the Lions.
The NFL moved the Bills’ Week 11 victory over the Cleveland Browns to Detroit’s Ford Field following a major snowstorm in Buffalo. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Bills will again be the team to beat in Detroit in Week 12. Buffalo is set as a nine-point road favorite over the Lions.
Bills vs Lions Odds
|Buffalo Bills||-9.5 (-110)||O 54.5 (-110)||-440|
|Detroit Lions||+9.5 (-110)||U 54.5 (-110)||+335|
Odds as of November 23 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here
The Lions and Bills are meeting for the third time on Thanksgiving. Detroit won and covered 27-13 as 8-point favorites in 1976. In 1994, the Lions won outright 35-21 as 2-point underdogs.
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Kickoff at Ford Field is set for 12:30 pm ET on Thursday, November 24. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies, 5 mph wind and a temperature of 47 degrees – not that it will matter inside climate-controlled Ford Field. The game is being broadcast by CBS.
Buffalo vs Detroit NFL Betting Trends
In the NFL public betting trends, spread bettors are loving the Lions, while moneyline players are embracing Buffalo. Detroit is pulling 65% of handle and 60% of bets in public spread splits. The moneyline splits are going to the Bills – 65% of handle and 56% of bets.
Total players are showing that they know the history of this rivalry. There’s 65% of handle and 60% of bets backing the under. In nine previous Buffalo vs Detroit games, the under was the winning play eight times.
The opening NFL Week 12 lines are displaying that the point spread on this game has gone down one-half point. The opening line was Buffalo -10. The total has bumped up two points from an opening line of 52.5 points.
The Bills are +380 to win the Super Bowl and the -220 chalk to win the AFC East in the NFL division odds. The Lions are +3500 to win the NFC North.
Lions Aren’t Thanksgiving Sensations
The Lions are 0-14 straight up and 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as a home underdog on Thanksgiving Day.
Thanks for sending over breakfast this morning @BuffaloBills.
See you soon! pic.twitter.com/E8rXLrk6aN
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 22, 2022
Detroit is 0-7 SU in the last seven Turkey Day games facing AFC opposition. That includes an 0-3 SU slate facing AFC East clubs.
Bills Have Grown Accustomed to Thanksgiving Success
This is the third time in four seasons that Buffalo will be playing on Thanksgiving as the visiting team. Buffalo won 31-6 last season at New Orleans. They covered as 7-point favorites.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 20, 2022
In 2019, Buffalo won 26-15 at Dallas. The Bills were outright winners as 6.5-point underdogs.
Lions Could Be Thin Along Offensive Line
Three Lions’ offensive line starters are listed as questionable for this game. Center Frank Ragnow (foot), left guard Jonah Jackson (concussion) and right guard Evan Brown (ankle) are the uncertain starters. WR Josh Reynolds (back) and DJ Chark (ankle) are also questionable.
Defensively, CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) is doubtful. LDE Josh Paschal (knee) is questionable.
Bills QB Josh Allen (right elbow) is listed as questionable, but he’s been playing for a few weeks with this ailment. Center Mitch Morse (elbow) is also questionable.
LDE Greg Rousseau (ankle) and MLB Tremaine Edmunds (groin) are questionable for Buffalo on defense.
Bills vs Lions Prediction
Everything seems to be pointing to a successful day for the Lions on Thanksgiving. But as anyone who’s followed the Lions knows, when success seems to be right in front of them, this team will detour to failure.
Should Buffalo win this game, the Bills will have as many victories at Ford Field in the past five days (two) as the Lions have managed all season long.
- Pick: Buffalo Bills -9.5 (-110)